[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

Wrong thread

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

IMBY, GFS mean doesn’t reach -5 850 throughout..

Still great Synoptics though..

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Post 200 on gfs. I know it’s la la land but what a series of charts. Not ideal for us in the SE on face value but synoptically quite astonishing compared to previous years. 

Get the cold in.......

Then wait and see is my motto now..

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Great Synoptics. Not cold enough for notable cold spell in medium term, except for surprises that pop up in or against the flow..

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

This has been apparent for days..

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Need a channel runner or two to satisfy us southerners..

I would have hoped we would be seeing colder 850’s given the set up..

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

The real cold just isn’t heading south over the UK. (Apart from northern most parts). This is a trend that keeps occurring, run after run..

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Just for fun. This is 10 Days away.

WXCHARTS

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A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Post 144 from GFS and UKMO could easily evolve to Scandi HP..

Are we going to see quite a quick flip/response to the SSW? 12z are hinting at this for sure..

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

240 chart will be MUCH better if the Scandi troughs dig further SE..

All very irrelevant though..

Trends..

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Fascinating charts. Totally different to winters past. Sit back and enjoy. Something is brewing. 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Beautifully poised for the middle and last third of January..

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

So ecm has precip across se england from day 5 to day 7. Uppers vary between -4 and -7. Lowest thicknesses only 526dam.  Not a flake 

that’s directed at those posters who think it’s only about the uppers and that -5/-7 with a flow off the n sea will deliver snowfall ....its way more complicated than that 

Living on the Kent Coast I can confirm this...

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

ECM 168 looks interesting..

Trends..

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

No widespread snow from ECM this evening. However, can’t sniff at the trend..

 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

More wet than white I think .... just a couple degrees short of nirvana !! 

......and 150 hours away...

Trends..

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

GFS 12z has tomorrow’s LP a smidge further north than Icon. Still rain on the coasts mind you.

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

12z icon takes tomorrow’s system through n france !

Standard, Blue...Standard..

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

This thread is a stark reminder as to why there are pros and amateurs. As an amateur weather enthusiast I keep my hobby fun and like to keep realistic.

If the charts were not so promising and there was a SSW on the horizon we would be patiently waiting for charts to improve as the downwelling occurred. Let’s give that a try over the next week or so?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

Still rain for coastal districts as Dp remain wrong side of zero. West and North Kent in the sweet spot.

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

1 hour ago, Kent Clipper said:

We have been bitten so many times and rightly we are still slightly cautious, the atmosphere is electric though. We are poised with champagne bottles in hand and fingers on the cork. If we are heading into easterly territory most of us would like just a couple of degrees shaved off those uppers before we pop that cork and get the party started.  FWIW a similar thing happened in the lead up to the late November 2010 event. For a number of days -7's were consistently being progged. A few runs started to drop in the odd pool of -10c in the North Sea, it grew and the rest is history. 

I must say, I hope that happens this time around but with far east Kent getting in on the action this time. Current easterly projections offer nothing for the East Kent massive next week. Let’s have a those raging NElys on -8 or below hpa’s with favourable DPs please..

However, the output is most encouraging for a memorable January for many, even lasting into Feb if SSW favours NW Europe too..

[Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean has trended the wrong way....

Clearly the flatter solutions have grown in number for the longer term...

Is that a mean chart for 10 days away? Don’t look for trends, positive or negative, using those...

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

Am I the only one in here looking at the current NH profiles from various sources and thinking, “hmmmm?” Plenty of interest for me. On a day the MetO say that snow could be a thing of the past...

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

Wow, lots of people are setting themselves up for disappointment. Elevation will be key. Anyone else will have transient, wet stuff in amongst the rain. 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

Let’s hope for cold pools if synoptic trends continue. Otherwise, it will be cold and showery with them being more wintry with elevation. That said, it looks like it will be seasonal if nothing else!