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DEYS(Kent)

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    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Evening All-

    Im going to try & get this at the top of the page-

    This is about as up to date forecast you get & is valid inline with the models until 10pm-

    & try to make sense of the gazillion posts on here-

    A VERY COMPLEX Pattern here in the SE corner which has been developing in the models for a day or 2-

    Basically the jet stream has been flowing down from Scandi in a SW direction- Hence that system moving down the North sea-

    However as the jet exits SW through western scotland its developed a loop that runs in an easterly direction across the Channel-

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/euro5.00hr.png

    the lift that this generates coupled with the convegnce has developed a small shortwave that is funneling the PPN North East-

    again,most models have picked this up, with varying degrees of momentum North & East-

    http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010518_0512.gif

    Notice the isolines curved NE- the around the top back west- this means the PPN will move NEwards out of Portsmouth, reach the Western posrtions of London & the home Counties & then start to curve west & LOSE momentum NE-

    Key here - for the NORTHERN extent of the PPN will look to stall out around 10pm- so If it hasnt reached you ( north side by then) then you may well be out of luck-

    THen look at the T 9 & 12 charts-

    http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010521_0512.gif

    http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010600_0512.gif

    10- Midnight is the MAX Northern & Eastern Extent of the PPN, also note a more curved signature of the isolines,in terms of its PPN sheild means you will get Extension East away from the Main core - However this will INFLECT more & more- so even though it may appear that its marching further & further North, at some point that will stall -

    Therefor, the jackpot zone is the shires west of london - 30-40 cm top depths- LUCKY LUCKY!!!!

    There will also be a line of snow ESE of that heavy core spreading East across london towards Kent-

    The Eastern boundry looks to Be say Ashford- the northern extent>>>???? Thames----- maybe South Essex-

    This zone away from the core 2-5cm although where it stalls out may get up to 10cm-

    Those that miss out then wait for the Easterly-

    Jackpot zones-- Surrey, Berks, Hamps, London West, NW london- SE Bucks, w herts

    Then the Eastern zone-

    West Sussex , west side of East sussex south London, SE london , NW kent ,west Kent- SE essex- although Please be aware this is subject to change- poss south or North....( coastals could be rain & sleet)

    valid until midnight

    S

    Evening Steve. Snow all the way here 5 ASL

    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by DEYS(Kent)

    Yep

    Jumped in a bit early there Robin!! :drinks:

    gfs iS Actually better for our neck of the woods as it delays the 1st Trough completely and then the 2nd becomes a Beast and hits at the Optimum Time and better placed as well, giving us about 18 hours worth of Snow from 21z Tomorrow evening until Wednesday afternoon.

    We shall see what the other 2 show in the next few hours

    PROZAC AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!

    Paul S

    NAE doesn't think so, Paul. Not for the bulk of Kent anyway.. ;)

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Two comments, one after the other - one optimistic, one pessimistic. For whjat little my novice's experience is worth, the high centre seemed parked for the next couple of days.

    I have a sneaky feeling that a Scandi HP may sneak up on us...All the ingredients are there, frigid cold, eventual snow cover and a jet pummelling southern Europe. One to watch, methinks.

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