Iceaxecrampon

06z carrying on the wintery theme for mid December GFS has the fun and games starting as early as the 10th. Transient quick ppn laden front whips in on a NW giving some near blizzard conditions on the tops.

Oooops. Heres the 06Z Scandi more to the NE less ppn. "More runs needed" as they say.

GFS 06Z Well Well - Winter arrives albeit 10 Days off. Scandi and Icelandic LP jouining and opening the floodgates. PPN mainly on all the usual suspects maybe favourable at 300 to 400ft asl Cumbria? *BANK*

Just catching up - 12Z GFS Good Lord

GFS 00Z The Heat The Flood The Freeze? Transition to say the least - nothing too extreme apart from some potential rain totals Friday 6th Dec. Hint of Scandi attack 11th. edit: absolute belter of a thick winter frost up here yesterday and today.

+1 We'll leave you well alone - we can endlessly wallow in our on self pitied thread.

Ha ha. Yes. But it’s the universally acclaimed Global Forecasting System!

12z GFS Dull.

The madness that is Fantasy Island. I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96 I must not look at Charts after T+96

Hmmm..... Have you looked at the output?

GFS 00z Scandi assist incoming early Dec? although T+273 Most definately a chill especially the usual areas up in Alba - ensembles more or less in agreement and heading the right way after next weeks warmup.

GFS 06Z 30-11-19 10 dayer snow line at 1200ft transient event with milder air from the SW though. I've looked at FI but not going to post........

Nice - but....... Stranded and definately Crag Fast at the moment

GFS 00z Talk about taking the rough with the smooth - maxima temps pushing into double figures 25-11-2019

00z GFS +312 02-12-2019 Too far ahead but hey whatever - it's the best of a bad lot. A proper Kilt lifter

Yes - Very flat and disappointing coldie outlook for the foreseeable - must be if theres not even a hint of a Frosty style ramp

Merry Advent? Finally. GFS has some sort of a welcome seasonal pattern change albeit T+306

HGT 500 SLP 14-11 7-11 Not too bad an effort - just the lack of ppn

GFS 06Z 14-11-2019 The prediction. The reality.

All in all a bit of a tail off - not too much of a let down - The possible 14th Narniaism has all but disappeared so far as the 12z output shows. Pick of the GFS is a midnight nowcast - the rest of the run is somewhat benign. Early days.

GFS 06z 14-11-2019 Continues to deliver....... Midnight ppn - lamposts at 1000ft asl?

GFS 00z T+126 forum meltdown

Yes GFS downgrade on the ppn as well.

00z GFS Near term frontal system for this Saturday has a bit of a downgrade from this weeks output. Any ppn well above valleys but Kirkstone Pass at 1500ft asl should see a dusting so more logs going on the fire in the Inn. No snowplough needed to follow up as yet Best the GFS can do in the way of the favoured date next week 14/11 Brecons should be "interesting" as the LP winds up. 16/11 Cant understand why this more NE Scandi flow isn't delivering much more in the way of ppn

Ensemble scatter looks like 14/11 is still going to be the day.