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Everything posted by Iceaxecrampon
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
00z GFS Near term frontal system for this Saturday has a bit of a downgrade from this weeks output. Any ppn well above valleys but Kirkstone Pass at 1500ft asl should see a dusting so more logs going on the fire in the Inn. No snowplough needed to follow up as yet Best the GFS can do in the way of the favoured date next week 14/11 Brecons should be "interesting" as the LP winds up. 16/11 Cant understand why this more NE Scandi flow isn't delivering much more in the way of ppn -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ensemble scatter looks like 14/11 is still going to be the day. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z GFS Thursday 14th at T+165 is the one to watch.12z looking promising already. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 06Z BANK....! But a week is a long way off - stunning mid November Chart Nearly a full day of low level sleet -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All in all a typical early November setup. Possibly we are all a bit too eager for real potential.Yes early days but the early signs are good. What’s not to like about some real sleet anyway. I am typing this from a very nice secret rural Fylde hostelry where the equally nice barmaid has just poked the fire and logged on. It must be chilly. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z What an upgrade for coldies for the weekend and beyond. Getting towards the reliable. Even sleet now at low levels Heavier ppn now down to 600ft asl -
North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards
Iceaxecrampon replied to damianslaw's topic in Regional
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North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards
Iceaxecrampon replied to damianslaw's topic in Regional
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North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards
Iceaxecrampon replied to damianslaw's topic in Regional
Wouldnt be surprised if Keswick sees decent ppn down to valley level this weekend. Very festive -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
06z seems to be chugging slowly. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Iceaxecrampon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
00z This weekend. @T+096 Sunday All in all a very promising GFS early setup for the Mountains Heres one from deep deep FI 06z on its way. -
Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEFS Ensemlble extreme bottoms out at around 10th November.GFS has this day best for wintery ppn lowering to 1200ft asl (Cumbria) 900ft (Peak District) the date is banked! Getting closer - yes a nice early season start for coldies. -
Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wheres this Cairngorm? Oh I see the Alps. -
Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ooops. And what a difference - ensembles still have the lower temps heading to mid month. -
Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
00z +318 (I know ) promising Scandi LP for the E coast. Closer timescale I thought there would be more made of this tbh. -
Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
00z has Sat to Mon a real Washing Machine - nothing too strong in the way of gusts though. A stubborn all weekender LP Hint of Scandi cold further in the run? last weeks modelled snow was way off the mark although Coniston got it's first dusting. 06z coming out now -
North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards
Iceaxecrampon replied to damianslaw's topic in Regional
GFS overplayed the snow potentials this week. This from METO only mainly highest tops benefitting 2100ft - 2400ft - it's grim out today though WEATHER Cloudy with some patchy rain and sleet, turning more persistent for a short time this morning particularly across southern Fells, with snow above 900m. Becoming mostly dry around midday. Sunny spells and a few light showers this afternoon falling as snow down to 600-700m. Cloudier this evening with further showers across western and central Fells, but any snow becoming confined to above 800m. -
Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - early October
Iceaxecrampon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Post of the week.....