Iceaxecrampon

Agreement with GFS My concern is that temps (Cumbria) aren't playing ball as expected.

12z GFS Thursday 14th at T+165 is the one to watch.12z looking promising already.

GFS 06Z BANK....! But a week is a long way off - stunning mid November Chart Nearly a full day of low level sleet

All in all a typical early November setup. Possibly we are all a bit too eager for real potential.Yes early days but the early signs are good. What’s not to like about some real sleet anyway. I am typing this from a very nice secret rural Fylde hostelry where the equally nice barmaid has just poked the fire and logged on. It must be chilly.

12z What an upgrade for coldies for the weekend and beyond. Getting towards the reliable. Even sleet now at low levels Heavier ppn now down to 600ft asl

Wouldnt be surprised if Keswick sees decent ppn down to valley level this weekend. Very festive

06z seems to be chugging slowly.

Unfortunately Cumbria Temp ensembles not having anything of it.

00z This weekend. @T+096 Sunday All in all a very promising GFS early setup for the Mountains Heres one from deep deep FI 06z on its way.

06z Yes a decent early(ish) promising November setup from the GFS 10-11-2019

GEFS Ensemlble extreme bottoms out at around 10th November.GFS has this day best for wintery ppn lowering to 1200ft asl (Cumbria) 900ft (Peak District) the date is banked! Getting closer - yes a nice early season start for coldies.

Wheres this Cairngorm? Oh I see the Alps.

Ooops. And what a difference - ensembles still have the lower temps heading to mid month.

06z Upgrade for mid November Ensembles all in agreement for a cool down.

00z +318 (I know ) promising Scandi LP for the E coast. Closer timescale I thought there would be more made of this tbh.

00z has Sat to Mon a real Washing Machine - nothing too strong in the way of gusts though. A stubborn all weekender LP Hint of Scandi cold further in the run? last weeks modelled snow was way off the mark although Coniston got it's first dusting. 06z coming out now

GFS overplayed the snow potentials this week. This from METO only mainly highest tops benefitting 2100ft - 2400ft - it's grim out today though WEATHER Cloudy with some patchy rain and sleet, turning more persistent for a short time this morning particularly across southern Fells, with snow above 900m. Becoming mostly dry around midday. Sunny spells and a few light showers this afternoon falling as snow down to 600-700m. Cloudier this evening with further showers across western and central Fells, but any snow becoming confined to above 800m.

GFS 00z Anyone seen the midnight temp differential?

12z GFS giving potential 24hrs of Rain Midlands - N England - heads up Cumbria.

Post of the week.....

Yes. A blanket prediction but hey it’s only a generic computer model. Mountaineering wise up here we know what “bits” get the proverbial dumping.

12z ppn still with us 1500ft asl Not enough cold in place but still impressed on how early in season for a top dusting.