4wd

Whoever was responsible for not promptly clearing that culvert blockage at Newburn (where the flats are precarious) wants a rocket under them. Classic case of neglect of minor maintenance having devastating - and very expensive - consequences. Actually the engineering of the foundations seems to have been very well done with surprisingly long columns into firmer ground, but it will be a miracle if the building can be saved.

Here it's quite similar to the start of October 2010 That year we had more than 60mm over three days.

=903&tx_ttnews[backPid]=185&L=1"]Gas Outlets off Spitsbergen Are No New Phenomenon

I have a feeling there will be a very major flood through York in a day or two, this event has gone on for an unusually long time and has affected precisely the wrong areas to make a big confluence of tributary floods down there.

At the moment the area of heavy rain seems to be expanding in-situ..

Well I almost hope they get stuck, what is the point exactly?

My last 24 hour graph tells the story as the Low Pressure centre moved overhead - wind fell light then picked up from the other way. Pressure has fallen very steadily but bottomed out now.

I think September is the critical month and this year had been cool and dry-ish rather than mild/wet/windy as it can be. I wonder if the current depression is going to give a quite serious snow cover higher up which will bury those gully patches completely.

Why would HP dominated weather give warm nights? Temperatures are already cooler than normal. Otherwise that prediction is a description of normal weather in NW Europe during autumn. I'm still entirely unconvinced that the increased open water doesn't allow cooling rather than increase warming. The North Sea cools pretty well over winter and continues to cool into April and it doesn't have ice - plus it's much further south. The ice extent isn't all that different up there until late summer when the sun's energy at high latitude is trivial.

It seems rather light and broken rain areas here in the east this morning. Only been about 7mm so far. Wind is gusting from the east which makes wintry sighing noises round the house which remind me of snowstorms.

Hmm... I still have a problem with that approach, he isn't going to get that widely viewed because it doesn't fit the consensus, or it won't be viewed because something is wrong with it. Which is it?

It was easy to find with suitable search terms. So because the consensus decided to ignore it and it has been mentioned by sceptics (?) it must be wrong, and can be dismissed without consideration of the points made. This is how it goes though isn't it. January last year isn't particularly 'old'.

They used a new model, capable of resolving responses to ice-streams and other fine- scale dynamic features that interact over the entire ice sheet. This had not previously been possible with existing models. They then used this data to analyse the effects of a warming ocean over time. So running a model counts as important new research.

York looks correct, something odd.

http://multi-science...16k4x07528q554/ Arctic warming is not greenhouse warming. Behind paywall but abstract goes:

4.7C, that's 1.4C cooler than yesterday at this time.

That it isn't as unprecedented as some are claiming to have open water much further north at some times than others.

They also have satellite images and super accurate GPS to help them find areas with least ice.The 1935 voyage was more or less random heading north and they found 'ice free' water. Far too much certainty is being proclaimed about our knowledge of what ice does and doesn't do up there under normal cyclical events. The tendency from some quarters to attribute practically all the change to human activity is laughable really. Soot particles are probably having more effect than anything to do with CO2 especially on Greenland. I do wonder how the alarmists will play it if ice does start to rebound over the next decade. Since reduced ice is the only tangible 'evidence' they can ascribe to warming the amount of attention given is little short of hysterical especially with all the doomsday predictions of feedbacks and such. I was looking at Nevens blog the other day and the comments were not far from trying to decide if we would be forced to eat our children in in 2014 or 2015. It should be noted that the models predicted that CO2 induced warming would first become noticeable 'at the poles'. i.e. not at one pole - both of them. Since this is not the case it might be assumed that the models are not correct or the increased melt is not du to CO2 induced warming but to something else. The clear candidate is increase sea temperatures as a result of high solar activity late century. This is something which clearly has more effect on the Arctic than the Antarctic. Add in the dust/soot pollution, again a Northern Hemisphere specialty and CO2 could very well have nothing much to do with it.

Does feel much more like mid-October today with a real nip in the wind. 10.7C at the moment. Had to sort out winter coat this morning for first time and only then remembered it needs a new zipper

http://www.nature.com/news/extreme-weather-1.11428 "Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming."

It's not actually that clear it was filmed right now, although presumably they are out at some altitude until normal autumn weather brings them lower. Most flocks in Iceland are housed through winter.

It's not unusual for them to be buried here typically sheltering by walls. You can find them by probing with a stick. He seemed to spot a melted vent hole by the rocks in this instance.

It can't be due entirely to sediment/sand. It actually looks like iron oxide which is a common problem in some streams here as a leachate from natural ironstone deposits. Could also be some sort of microbial activity. Whatever it doesn't look healthy and I'd be surprised if the extreme urbanisation and industrialisation of the banks in that area isn't a major factor.

Noticed lots of geese in classic V formations the other day here too. Grass is disappearing fast and cows are showing a great deal of interest in hay bales put out for them. I just *know* we are in for an early onset winter this year.

Here is Glenn Tamblyn (Skeptical Science author/moderator) secretly conversing with his SkS pals on their off limits forum and saying “we need a conspiracy to save humanityâ€. The Viet Cong comparison is a nice touch too. There’s talk of convening a “war council†too. And this isn’t about science or personal careers and reputations any more. This is a fight for survival. Our civilisations survival. .. We need our own anonymous (or not so anonymous) donors, our own think tanks…. Our Monckton’s … Our assassins. Anyone got Bill Gates’ private number, Warren Buffett, Richard Branson? Our ‘side’ has got to get professional, ASAP. We don’t need to blog. We need to network. Every single blog, organisation, movement is like a platoon in an army. ..This has a lot of similarities to the Vietnam War…. And the skeptics are the Viet Cong … Not fighting like ‘Gentlemen’ at all. And the mainstream guys like Gleick don’t know how to deal with this. Queensberry Rules rather than biting and gouging. ..So, either Mother Nature deigns to give the world a terrifying wake up call. Or people like us have to build the greatest guerilla force in human history . Now. Because time is up… Someone needs to convene a council of war of the major environmental movements, blogs, institutes etc. In a smoke filled room (OK, an incense filled room) we need a conspiracy to save humanity. In the secret SkS forum, a member of the SkS squadron stated that “McIntyre must go downâ€. In another post, another SkS squadron member fantasized about ripping out Watts’ throat as follows: Sometimes you just want to let loose and scream about how you want to take those mother[my censor]ing [my censor]holes, those closed-minded bigotted genocidal pieces of regurgitated dog [my censor] and do unspeakable violence to their bodies and souls for what they are doing to the safety of what and who we all hold dear. (Ain’t a lack of a moderation policy a cleansing and liberating thing?)… Work out what you are best suited too and do that. But be able to distance yourself enough from your personal reactions to also see the bigger picture of the entire war and contribute to framing that broad campaign – “We need to focus on this and this and this. But my personal contribution will be to ripe Anthony Watts’ throat out – metaphorically of course .†Such nice people, those SkS authors, contributors, and moderators. [As quoted by Geoff Chambers in this Bishop Hill thread. http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2012/3/26/opengate-josh-158.html?currentPage=2#comments ]