damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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21 hours ago, MP-R said:
A good winter north of the border... followed by a very decent summer by their standards too.
2018 was quite similiar, not the same depth of cold, apart from end of Feb, but generally it was quite a cold winter in Scotland followed by a wonderful summer.
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2 hours ago, The PIT said:
Yup now looks like a split month coming up rainfall wise a wet first half and drier 2nd half. So looking like we will get stuck on 62% of average rainfall.
Could be quite an odd September, mild wet first half, cool dry second half, normally first half associated with dry, and second half wet, with cool only at the end. It's turning into a very different September.
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3 hours ago, Maz said:
If all autumn days were like today it would be my favourite season.
Moon shining through Field mist at dawn with seasonal coolness. Lovely warm sunshine through the day, but never too hot.
Shame autumn is more often grey, drizzle and a bit grim!!
September though is often fine especially first two thirds, a singularity it seems nowadays, October and November are the duller months, especially November.
Odd to see the heavy rain in London right now, we've had a fine sunny dry day.
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Evidence we are now into mid September and a cooler airmass. Not sure how low temp was this morning. but I had heavy condensation in the window this morning, with no heating on... and even though sunny clear skies current temp only 14.3 degrees.
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Please keep this thread alive.. it may well justify some activity this week, especially end of the week. Report any ground or indeed air frost.. i'll be keeping an eye on minima..
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33 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Unfortunate really as we were already in the midst of a cold spell that broke a week or so later, to be replaced by a rather wet chilly mess for many (although a decent snowfall did occur from the west on the 24th).
Scotland endured a consistently cold period from Christmas Eve through until mid February. As evidenced by the fact a number of lochs began to freeze by early February.
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16 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Hey all not posted in here for a while but something was showing on the 12z gfs that i would not normally see just yet and it got me out of the hibernation bed ha ha...
possible snow in the highlands at the end of the run,...JFF obviously
and what a NH view this is and yes it's a couple of months too early as some have mentioned but we are ticking down now towards the winter months,...bring it on
in the meantime,...it's looking more likely that it's going to be pleasant next week just in time for my week off work
As can be seen on the latest anomalies from the CPC/NOAA and the EPS.
not a heatwave by any means but pleasant enough to get out and about whether it be a walk in the park or in the garden,...whatever,i have plenty to do in the garden so this will be welcomed
enjoy the rest of your evening folks
oh and P.S, R.I.P @the queen you served us all well and you will be sorely missed
The most temperate feeling the year can give is when high pressure is on the scene second half of September - best conditions for outdoor activities.
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20 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
This September is shaping up to be far more interesting than last year's. I like a mixed September which is what this year is providing.
We had some much needed rainfall last week, and this coming week will be providing us with some pleasant sunny days with cool (and hopefully) misty nights. Thankfully, temps are looking to be around average so it won't really be an extension of summer.
Could well be a sandwich type month, one with three layers.. the top thick slice denoting wet and warm, middle dry and cooler, bottom slice.. average and wet possibly might be a thin slice...
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2 hours ago, stodge said:
Evening all
Once again, GFS 12Z OP is more April than September - a classic early spring post-SSW evolution with heights in Greenland, the trough over Scandinavia and the cold air mass approaching the British Isles from the North and Northeast to end the month.
What do you expect with the Atlantic still moribund and little or nothing happening in the tropics?
Yes the evolution of 12z GFS more akin to after effect of a SSW, high pressure over scandi, then major retrogression to the NW and a jetstream collapsed.. an odd run, suspect an outlier. ECM heading towards an atlantic breakthrough but a slow affair.
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Unusually the weather today better further north in the region you went. Apart from a brief showery burst early afternoon it stayed dry. Nice sunshine late afternoon and an evening complete opposite to yesterday, fine and clear and still quite light at 8pm. Current temp 12.7 degrees. A long run of nights single digit minima ahead, could well see our first ground frost by the weekend.
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Quite a cool down forecast from mid week on and into next week. Even London looks like it will return means 13-14 degree range, below par for mid Sept, CET zone a degree or so cooler would expect. The first half of Sept 2022 will though go down as one of warmest on record I expect. The slow moving low pressure system to the SW key reason, it maintained very warm tropical air over UK and prevented clear skies which at this time of year begin to have a marked cooling effect on mean values.
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14 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
I wouldn't stress over the seasonals much and the GLO5EA looks better on the 500hpa view with blocking taking on the Omega shape and low pressure toward Spain / Africa
The strong heights over west atlantic seaboard correlate with the very high SSTs we have in that region right now.. and does seem therefore very plausible. Conversely we see the long wave trough over eastern atlantic seaboard.. it looks like the jet would be NW- SE aligned squeezed between heights to the SW and NE. This would allow for quite a bit of polar air influence. Whilst not a pattern conducive for signficant or sustained cold, it is also one not conducive for signficant or sustained mild either. Could result in a very changeable variable picture, sometimes mild, sometimes cold, sometimes rain, sometimes snowy, sometimes dry and frosty, sometimes stormy.. a real mix, most of our recent winters have been very homogenous with one type of weather dominating, often the wet mild variety. 17-18 and 20-21 only really varied winters since 12-13.
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3 hours ago, mb018538 said:
Certainly looking cooler from midweek onwards. The first good stretch (maybe 5 days or so) of below average temperatures as a northerly airflow sets in.
Temps recovering to average into next week as the northerly gets cut off, and perhaps above again, as a stronger high builds back in and pulls up warmer air from the south. No heatwave though - we're at the stage of the year where high pressure alone won't generate high temperatures.
Need a good straight southerly flow and much higher 850 temps than 10c to do the legwork in late September. The dizzy heights of hot summer high pressure is behind us now for another 9 months.
Yes hitting that point in the year when high pressure aloft doesn't necessarily correlate with notable warmth for the time of year, unless it has very warm uppers mixed in, normally when the source is a more southerly one. This current high has cool origins and the continent albeit very slowly is cooling. The movement of such a high as forecast won't result in a notable increase in temps, but will still bring low 20s I suspect - warm but not exceptionally so.
A coolish week ahead overall, most notable factor, chilly minima. Mist likely to be very prevalent.
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1 hour ago, sundog said:
Indeed and if there is blocking to the east as shown wouldn't want a winter of stalling low pressures cos they can't get further east. I think blocking to the east can be more of a hindrence then a help.
Could produce battleground snowfall events, tug between cold SE airstream and milder SW airstream.. ideally for cold snow rathee than rain you would want heights stronger near Iceland. The north though could sit on colder side of polar front jet.. cold zonality. All conjecture..
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7 minutes ago, sundog said:
Still got the poxy hp in the northern Pacific
Permanent feature in winter nowadays it seems.
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1 minute ago, Nick L said:
So looking forward to finally enjoying some chilly nights later this week. Perfect excuse to light up the chimenea
Mellow misty mornings with the dew heavy...
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The September customary high pressure spell on the way.. rare not to have a sustained spell of settled weather in the first two thirds of the month nowadays it seems. The upcoming week after tomorrow looks mostly fine. Northern parts will see a bit of weak frontal activity, and possible showers especially in the NE as we pull down cooler air from the north from mid week.
By the weekend, the models all show high pressure ridging in, cutting off the cooler air.
Not expecting this thread to be busy this week at all, due partly to the quiet nature of synoptics on offer, probably the best type of conditions under current circumstances.
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
GLOSEA September update summary- meh
There are some positives and some negatives-
We haven’t got the deep blues over Greenland there and we’ve got troughing over the UK…which doesn’t preclude some decent polar NWly incursions.
Main feature no azores or euro high on the scene.
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25 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:
Very heavy rain tonight and low cloud cover made it seem like darkness was descending around 6:45, about an hour before sun set. This, plus this weeks gradually cooling maxima, giving us the first true taste of autumn here.
Yes went dark very early here combined with heavy rain, Autumn feels like it has arrived..
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First evening proper definately not feeling summer. Early dusk, incessant rain... very much a Sunday eve feeling..
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2 hours ago, Earthshine said:
Personally happy with that! After a fantastic warm summer I think some of those lovely cooler, sunny September days will do nicely!
BBC going for 5 degrees minima by end of the week, whilst nothing too unusual for mid September, it's a clear signal we are waving good bye to summer properly.. yes we can have maxima well into the 20s in October still, but the lowering sun and less daylight combined with decaying state of nature, tells you it clearly is no longer summer, however long we may want to cling on, the same thing happens opposite end of the year, cold and snow can easily occur in April, but it is clearly Spring. The time of full change is the equinox.
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Been awaiting what could be quite a notable period of rainfall. First drops have started.. much better when the rain waits until late afternoon to arrive rather than finish, especially once into September and the evenings draw in quickly.
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After a notably unsettled spell, thanks to one low pressure system that stuck around for upwards of a week, the models are showing a return to the settled conditions we have very much become accustomed to this year, however, a batch of very heavy rain for northern parts to go through later Sunday and into Monday first.
High pressure setting up to our west, pulling in quite chilly uppers by mid week, lots of bright, sunny conditions, possibly showers in eastern parts, misty mornings and cool evenings and nights - the other side of early autumn I guess.. by the end of the coming week and into the following week, GFS and ECM keen to pull heights east and settle over the UK, with the jetstream remaining very sluggish.
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25 minutes ago, Don said:
Good to also see the cooling continue in the North Eastern Pacific, too!
Perhaps another factor that forced the government to hand out monies to offset impending energy costs was looking at long range forecasts for winter ahead..
Memories of 1983
in Historic Weather
Posted
Late 82 brought a super El Nino, possible reason for the exceptional warmth in USA.. and may have been a factor in the switch around between Jan and Feb.