damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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Streams are in full flow, long time since seen that, evidence alot of rain fell today.
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30 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Bit of a classic winter setup developing through this weekend and early next week. Hurricane Fiona will move northwards to the west of Greenland, through the "Greenland Shredder" advecting ample amounts of warm air into Greenland/the Arctic. The amplified jet as a result allows high pressure to form in the Atlantic and we see a chilly northerly airflow develop across the UK, absolute bullseye!
Unfortunately it's September, so a chilly(ish) few days and some snow over the Highlands is about as good as we'll manage, serves as a reminder that the Arctic is cooling, the SPV is building & winter will soon be on its way.
For snow lovers 3 months too early. These synoptics would by then most likely give a rain to snow event, with plenty of snow showers or bands of snow packing in behind, given it is an unstable set up. Alas at this time of year just cold rain. Still its always interesting to see amplified flows in Autumn, diving low pressure into Europe.
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Gave in today and kept electric heater on for lengthy periods of the day, otherwise temp would have stayed around 16 degrees, which is uncomfortable and does not aid concentration and productivity when sat working. Can get away with no heating when not working..
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9 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Well i know some places have had significant amounts..will be interesting to see the end of month rainfull totals...however many places had nowhere near that and frankly we need more than even 100mm during the autumn at a time when growth has slowed down and temps are lower in order to replenish some of the soil water defecit...
Expect we've had at least an inch today. Feels so far an average month rainfall wise in thr Lake District. We've had a very dry middle third following a wet first third. Last third looking wetter but nothing substantive.
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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
We'd need the remainder of September to be way colder then normal to reach the 1961-1990 average, aside from early next week it's looking like pretty standard September weather.
Much of this September has felt pretty typical if not rather settled. The opening week however was far above normal and that has offset the CET a lot.
Something around the late 14s would be my best guess. Signs are we could see something above normal again by early October.
Difference with this September's warmth and that of most September's is it was unusually wet and cloudy with it. Only the far SE experienced sunny drt warmth mid month briefly. Consequently for many especially further north it will be a September with minimal warm dry weather, the dry weather has come with average temps.
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12 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:It's been a bit of a wash-out here this afternoon from 2pm with persistent drizzle giving the grass a good feed and much needed water for the reservoirs, tomorrow is looking better with clearer sunny skies and 16'c temps although into next week the temps will be markedly dropping away below the seasonal averages down to 10'c maximums with the slight chance of persistent snow over the higher Scottish Mountains.
Yes think Monday will be that first cold day of the season, Tuesday colder.. expecting warm coats will be removed from the cupboards. I wore my wet winter coat today first time since April.
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8 minutes ago, SnowThunder said:
Now this is weather I expect for late September, damp, miserable and chilly
Yes has an October vibe to it. Won't be long before such synoptics cause the chilly air to expel from the breathe, that's when you know we've firmly entered the colder half of the year.
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Turning into a notably wet day here. Easily an inch of rain put down so far I expect.
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Should see a continued drop through rest of the month, perhaps more notably so for a time. Good chance could easily knock off 1 degree.
September is perhaps the most cooling of months, early Sept often warm, the last few days usually much cooler. October though equally if not more so a cooling month.
March and April equal probably the most warming month.
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1 hour ago, dodge said:
Escaped the rain today so far, but it's knocking on the door now. It will probably set in to see out the rest of daylight hours. Chilly feeling into next week, nothing too drastic but it will surprise those hanging onto late summer.
Once the equinox arrives I firmly wave good bye to summer. Those long days of mid May to late July seem long ago now.
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Calandar says first day of Autumn tomorrow. Today certainly feels first true Autumnal day. We've had moderate rain all morning, very low cloud down to valley level - always makes for a miserable feel, current temp a chilly 13.8 degrees.
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On 19/09/2022 at 14:34, richie3846 said:
I think many people find it more comfortable around the 19 to 21c mark in general. If that's comfortable for you, great, that's not for me though, unless I'm moving about. The missus and kids also find 17c a little too chilly for home. When it's time to do housework or something like that, then of course that's a good temperature, but most of the time at home activity is limited, therefore blood circulation is quite low also.
Ideal temp is about 19 degrees. I can cope well with 18 degrees, but below this when working and sitting still it becomes more uncomfortable, but can still live with no heating at 17 degrees, just about 16 degrees, but duvet and extra layers needed 15 degrees or below.
People's tolerance levels are very dependent on factors such as age, sex, weight, health conditions, how much mobility they have.
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3 hours ago, Maz said:
Whilst it is hard for September to bring any real extremes, this September has seen an unusual degree of variation. Warm high pressure, warm cyclonic, cool northerly, current fairly typical benign mild high, then another unusually extended northerly. It’s interesting.
Yes despite me bemoaning the currwnt benign conditions, it is turning into a more varied September than usual.
Unusually the warmth has been associated with more cyclonic conditions. A couple of potent northerlies bringing quite cold conditions - the next one looks cold. The CET will disguise the variability.
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Another wake me up when September ends type day. Its a non descript cloudy day, all just very average and dull.
Tomorrow will bring first meaningful rain for upwards of 10 days.. getting used to 10 day dry spells.
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Looking increasingly will end in the 14s and comfortably so.
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3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:
Thanks for that.
Doesn't look good for North West Europe in terms of snow and cold and no sign of any storminess either.
Could be a benign Winter weather wise.
Doesn't tell us much really for Europe. All that anomalous warmth.. mmm there has to be a trough somewhere in our vicinity.. not convinced it can be used to determine exact positioning of ridge and trough on east side atlantic and europe.
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A rather lacklustre sort of day so far. Generally overcast, some brightness trying to break through.
Sums up what I call the low point in the year for weather enthusiasts.. equinox on the way and usually thimgs become more and more interesting.
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1 hour ago, Newberryone said:
Certainly looks like more of the same with a general continuation of the overall dry settled theme to see out Sept and beginning of Oct. Apart from some rain Wednesday night and Thursday and the possibility of some weak weather systems being brought down in a chilly northwesterly flow next week there doesn’t seem to be anything to suggest a change of any great significance is on the cards anytime soon. If anything, that mid Atlantic high looks poised to become even more dominant by the time we enter the new month judging by the Ecm 0z.
Models behaving in a very Autumn La Nina base state, generally equates to strong mid atlantic heights, waxing and waning, at times allowing colder and wetter incursions from the north and north west, which can then develop into a cyclonic set up, at other times ridging in to give calm settled conditions. As the autumn moves on, the propensity for colder rather than warmer to dominate increases.
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My calandar says autumn starts on 23rd September - rather late it seems, usually the 21st or 22nd if basing on the equinox. Models are showing a cold northerly flow setting in apt timing.
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3 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:
The cool past few days have seen daily means of 10-11 so far - not record breaking, but notably cool.
In contrast, September 24-September 28, 2020 averaged 9.4degC.
About 4.5 degrees below the norm, quite significantly lower than mid Sept mean.
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Brief blast or two of electric heater needed at times last few days. Trying not to use it but need to be comfortable working.
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4 minutes ago, richie3846 said:
I wonder how much less the drop would be if the starting point 5 days ago was average? It doesn't feel like it's that much below average to me but I don't know what the exact figures are on the 30 year averages for the rolling month. My suspicion is that many people are perceiving this spell to be significantly below average when it may not be that far below.
The drop is steep partly because the start point is high, rather than this being a notable cool spell for the time of year, this is my thinking but I don't have the numbers to back this up. I suspect it's only a slightly cool spell, maybe around 2c below the average for the stage in the month where we are at.
Yes we started from an exceptionally high benchmark. Anyone post the recent daily means.
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A 1.3 degree drop in 5 days is preety impressive. Quite a cold spell for mid Sept. Based on current model output I"d say 60% change we will finish under 15 degrees, this could easily go up to about 75% by middle of next week. Going under 14 degrees would be a very tall order, a slim 10% chance. An above average almost a dead cert, an appreciably above average month 1.5 degrees or above, much less so. Still it will continue the run of above average months in 2022.Have we ever had a complete calandar year of above average months? 2014 probably has come closest.
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3 hours ago, Don said:
Well that's a shame as it would have likely ensured a final monthly CET in the 14's! Could be hard pushed to get sub 15C now?
Wouldn't rule out a finish in the 14s.. models are showing average, or a little cooler than average conditions for the foreseeable. Little in the way of notably warm tropical maritime air. We are in the midst of quite a cold spell for mid September, cool uppers and limited cloud by late Sept equates to preety chilly minima as we have recently experienced, denting the CET somewhat.
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September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Summer ended firmly 31 August here this year.