damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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Reference to west Cumbria reservoirs, think this refers to Ennerdale which serves a very small catchment area - West Cumbria and isn't prone to excess demand. Haweswater and Thirlmere serve much of the Manchester area and consequently the NW region is much less exposed to drought than Yorkshire, the Pennine reservoirs serve them.
We've had a good amount of rain in recent weeks but still below where we should be.
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2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:
IMO it became noticeable after the early 1990s ..so im going to say 1994..there were some still pretty widespread wintry spells in winter after 1987...they seemed to disappear in the most part after 1994 with the odd exception (Dec 1995 for example)..if you guys today had a February 1994 cold spell you would be dancing in the streets..back then it was almost the norm for this to happen every other year ...so was pretty meh and forgettable at the time.
88-89, 89-90 winters up there with warmest on record, apart from Feb 91 there wasn't a cold month between Dec 87 and Feb 94.
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3 hours ago, Cambrian said:
6z GFS op firming up on a colder cyclonic period around the middle of the month, the mean still looking good for it too.
The change well afoot by day 8, with another spell of rain for all, cold air digging down behind it with sub-zero T850s for all by day 10, a week Sunday. Single figure afternoon temperatures for most parts of the UK and Ireland,
and well below average T850s through the whole of western and central Europe by day 11, this colder setup never really getting shifted all the way through to the end of the run at day 16.
Said the first true mid autumn day is the first day of the season that fails to bring double digit maxima.. often occurs by mid October, and if these synoptics verify we will be heading into that marked shift deep Autumn proper.
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A very lacklustre day in the main, one of those instantly forgettable ones. Really isn't much to say.
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Inevitably this thread has become a bit of a let's reminsce about previous winters in context of speculating how current signals may pan out and then matching these to what happened in previous winters.
That's all fine, provided we don't step too much into winters of yesteryear chat, inevitably I'm just as guilty for that, especially as we move deeper into Autumn.
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1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:
Yes that's right. It was one of the best half term weeks ever with knee deep snow and I don't remember any of it thawing through the daytime.
Yes ideal conditions, hard frosts at night, daytime maxima low single digits, sunshine and light winds.. only a very slight thaw.
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35 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:
I know its early days but do you think this will cool down Europe as a whole as well? Are there any signals that suggest this?
In my opinion, If the continent is in double-digits all the way to Central-Eastern Europe then we can forget about any proper prolonged winter, all we can then expect is short-lived transient cold.
A more amplified jet would do the trick, a deep longwave trough digging south into central europe would cool things down.
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Models continue to signal a change to colder unsettled by mid month, azores high kicked west and ridging north, UK moves on to the cold side of the jet. In the meantime we remain locked on warm side.
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55 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:
It was a couple of months before my 14th birthday (the February 91 event) and I remember it started on a Wednesday night as England played Cameroon in a friendly at Wembley following their World Cup quarter final meeting the previous summer. The Cameroon players looked frozen. As I recall the following day there was a blizzard where I live which started late afternoon. The wind was bitter.
Thursday 8 February was the main snowy day of that month. bitter east winds blew snow across most of the UK, continuing through the 9th but less intense, and into the weekend but easing all the time. The following week was half term, the snow stuck around throughout it, great sledging times!
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19 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
If memory serves, mid Dec 08 to mid Jan 09 was also close to zero.
The cold arrived just after christmas in 08 and lasted only a couple of weeks. Quite similiar to 2020-21.
With reference to 00-01, December was very mild until Christmas, then there waa a short very cold spell that fizzled out at New Year. Jan and Feb 01 were quite cold but nothing severe. Snow and cold lovers would probably take another 00-01 over most winters since 12-13 any day. Incidentally Autumn 2000 was exceptionally wet and this continued into December.
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9 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
Feb 1991 was a winter month to rival January 1987, for the snow amounts.
Yes Feb 91 in eastern parts was very snowy, but less so in the west, same as Jan 87. Months such as Dec 81, Dec 09, Jan 10 brought more snow in the north and west than the east. Difference between easterly months and northerly months.
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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:
I’ll take a milder February if we can get cold in December and into Jan. Cold that occurs around the solstice is worth its weight in gold…the foundations don’t get much more optimal than then. Mid Dec to mid Jan is where you want winter; peak darkness and least insolation.
2009-2010 brought the perfect deep mid winter freeze. 1981-82 ditto.
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10 minutes ago, severe snowstorm said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure they used to call the yellow ones weather 'watch' rather than 'warning' a few years ago? This may have changed when they brought the probability/impact matrix in.
Weather warnings usually broadcast for high impact events from memory as there was no alternative. Probably equivalent of orange amber warnings. Yellows will soon become permanent because they denote just a bit of rain or wind nowadays. I ignore them. Many a yellow warning just means normal weather here.
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24 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
I would say it was probably the mid to late 1980s when mild winters started to become more commonplace. I was born in '91, and whilst I remember some cold snowy winters at times, they were nothing like what my parents experienced during their childhoods. Because of this, my mother felt sorry for me that I couldn't have as much fun in the snow as she did when she was a child.
1900s to 1930s winters were generally much less cold than 1940s to 1980s winters.
If thinking of last 100 yrs or so, there was a shift late 80s to much warmer years, more milder than colder months, step change months Dec 87, Feb 97, Jul 13. Summer 08 to Summer 13 though brought a colder period interestingly after an exceptionally warm period Summer 06 to Summer 08 bar summer months of 07. Dec 10 came slap bang in the middle of that period.
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GFS 12z, predominantly unsettled, short term, zonal westerly airflow, troughs and fronts zipping through on a NW- SE trajectory accompanied by strong winds, airstream a mild one from between south and west. Only brief ridge development.
As we head into mid month, signal still there for the azores high to ridge further west, airstream more from betwwen north and west, even north and east eventually, becoming colder, less unsettled but still not settled, possible fog and frost. All very text book October.
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1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:
I’ll gladly take a mild feb if the other months are cold, or a mild early winter, if February is cold with snow.
From a personal perspective I prefer the cold to come earlier- mid winter rather than February. Winters with cold early on include 1976-77, 1981-82, 1996-97 and 2010-11..In all cases the cold disapated by mid Jan.
Winter 09-10 my favourite though, after a very wet mild Nov and start to Dec, the cold started around 11th and set for rest of winter.
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Bit of late afternoon brightness, not as dark as this time yesterday. It feels quite cold, lost the tropical maritime air. Current temp 10.7 degrees. Looking ahead Saturday is set reasonable thankfully, tomorrow and especially Friday overcast and more rain. That winter state of mind is creeping in..
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Also quite cool compared to yesterday. High of 12.1 degrees which is close to average, yesterday brought high near 16 degrees.
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1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:
In general, the next week or so is likely to be quite changeable with low's pushing through followed by some ridging trying to work it's way up before being suppressed by further low development.
If ever anything was going to show a westerly pattern it would be this cumulative rainfall forecast for 120 hours.
The dewpoint is a good reminder of the ever changing weather in the current pattern.
The height anomaly just further solidifying my point.
There really isn't much to talk about despite the ever changing weather because it'll feel at ground level like a normal autumn and we're still a little bit too far away to think about anything other than the background signals for Winter.
In a year largely without much zonal mobile airflow.. its a change I guess.
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In moan mood today, torrential rain at present, possibly a squall line. Wet season in full swing. Can see October being our first notably wet month since February. Last 24 hours easily a couple of inches more on the fells.
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40 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Yes quite a shock to the system down here if this ecm 0z verified..
Has been a bit of a trend lately...although still at bottom of pressure ens presently..
As you say perhaps some decent rain for the south..good spike on ens
Today very blustery out in the gardens but still warm in that sun...narrowing band of squally rain this afternoon...
Ties in with projected trend towards mid atlantic heights and deep longwave trough digging through UK, all perfectly plausible.
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29 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:
It said there was a warning out for wind nearby…… that’s like saying someone up the street has had broth
Yellow weather warnings are the equivalent of saying 'be aware there is some weather about'..
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In a word the weather this morning aligns with the the phrase ' uninspiring Wet Wednesday'.. these are doldrum times for weather enthusiasts.
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11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
The mobile theme continues in todays output...with the NW/SE split continuing for another week or so.
After this - the models are starting to potentially sniff out a deep low affecting more of the UK in the 8-10 day range (timing to be confirmed at this range of course):
NOAA anoms looking unsettled in the 8-14 day range too. MJO phase 6 mid to late October not a settled one for the UK:
We could finally see some substantial rain in parched southern areas after a mainly dry next week or so.Looks increasingly cyclonic with the atlantic trough bedding down on the UK, wet and chilly with it. In the meantime the zonal train rides along, wettest in the NW, driest in the SE, windy. and mild.
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North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
Power cuts par for the course in the 80s, regular occurance round here.