damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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3 hours ago, Don said:
Agreed, pity this isn't looking likely this year!
October is statistically our wettest month. Months like 1995 are quite the exception.
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October 95 was a great month for Autumn colour seem to remember, very benign throughout and very mild.
After a run of chilly and/or wet Octobers it was very welcomed.
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7 minutes ago, richie3846 said:
If memory serves me correctly, this is approximately what happened in September.
Yes could be another switcharound month, in first half September low pressure was to the SW and we pulled in a warm S/SE flow, this time low pressure is to the NW and we have a mild SW/ W flow.
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17 hours ago, Hirudine said:
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
WWW.FT.COMNews, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publicationThe Financial Times ran the same story a few days ago, where they mention that ' ministers were calling on ENTSO-E, the EU’s electricity grid operators’ network, to present its update on risks to the security of winter electricity supply in October, a month earlier than usual.' So there must be some reasonable amount of concern.
Ive noted the media saying in for a cold winter.. do they know something we don't.. its misleading and panic scaring language.. seems to be referenced in context people will not put there heating on, which is not the same as a weather forecast.
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Met Office going for colder conditions late October and settled. Quite a sudden change.. bring in the mid atlantic high ridging north..
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Fast losing light now.. on overcast days such as today, curtains firmly need drawing by 7pm. In 4 weeks it will be half 4!
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3 hours ago, Cambrian said:
From the 0z GFS ensemble means and anomalies, it looks like the spell of more mobile westerly influenced weather that we’re currently experiencing is part of an adjustment in the hemispheric pattern, from 4 long wave trough waves today,
flattening through the Atlantic all the way over to Siberia, and also through the eastern Pacific by the weekend at day 4,
then resolving to something more akin to a 3-wave pattern by the following weekend, around the middle of the month, bringing us into a colder cyclonic spell, with a northerly to follow. That is a strong signal for a day 11 mean.
The ECM mean at day 10 is moving that way too.
The middle of October is after all the middle of autumn too, but only that. Still far too soon to deduce anything meaningful about the following season (if we ever can!), though the replacement of a slow 4-wave pattern by a potentially even slower 3-wave one, when normal seasonal expectation would be the converse, is…well, go on Mr Spock and Tiddles…
Yes this appears to be the direction of travel as we head into the middle of the month. A westerly/south westerly airfliw to begin, bringing mild and wet conditions especially further north west. Gradually the azores high pulls west and we exchange the flow to a colder more settled NW, possibly northerly flow by mid month.
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Oh joy the dreaded SW airstream in full excelsis! Destest it! Current temp 14.8 degrees, probably the low tonight.. Incessant rain or drizzle, cloud covering valley bottoms, never see the Lake District brochures show such conditions, but alas plague these parts far far far too often.
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16 minutes ago, Don said:
Not surprising given September 2006 was the hottest on record, October one of the warmest and November also mild.
I think June 2006 to May 2007 is still the warmest 12 month period on record.
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2 minutes ago, Don said:
I've heard it's not uncommon for parts of Canada to go from summer like weather to freezing cold and snow within a day or so?!
I remember in 2001 after the mildest October on record, leaves were still green at the beginning of November!
2006 was perhaps the most delayed Autumn I've known. The last good Autumn for colour was 2018. It varies each year.
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50 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:
Thanks for these, the Guardian article makes sense now with a cold December and mild February the preferred outcome.
Got to say the December anomaly is good with the highest relative pressure south of Iceland, just where we want it.
If we could get just one cold, frosty, snowy month I would be happy.
All eyes on the October update.
Andy
Winter 10-11 repeat perhaps!
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Noting good leaf colour change at present. However, we've yet to have a good frost, and generally the best colours come after one, provided the wind doesn't blow the leaves off beforehand.
As a general observation much vegetation is in quite a stressed state due to the very dry summer, and leaves looked quite shrivelled and lacklustre through much of August. I wouldn't say we have quite reached the point in which Autumn rushes away with itself, the next week looks mild and no frost. Normally its around mid October when that rush sets in... mid Oct to mid Nov is a period of great change in the countryside.. akin to mid April to mid May when everything bursts into life. That first day that struggles to make double figures even when sunny normally for me marks that change, and nowadays often takes until mid October. The foreseeable looks like delivering 12-16 degree maxes..
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4 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:
Expectations for this coming winter are now so low that a few wintry showers in January will be a cause for joy!
Not sure we can blame it all on El nina for as the author says in this article we are a long way from the source.
Strange that in a number of todays papers it is reported that the Government is worried about gas rationing after forecasts of an 'unusually cold, dry European winter', not sure what forecasts they are looking at!
Andy
High pressure to the east, with an atlantic trough digging through the UK and high pressure to the west - all quite possible, which would result in a cold wet winter here, snow and rain..
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Another very decent day for early October, mild, benign, dry, not much sun, but quite bright, and little wind. October has started off very kind in the Lake District, but all is about to change, a generally very unsettled windy and wet period ahead.. oh joy!
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6 hours ago, Premier Neige said:
Winter 2022/2023 Snowfall Predictions: New Forecast data shows the Snowfall patterns for the next Winter season, altered by the La Nina Jet Stream » Severe Weather Europe
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EUUpdated Winter 2022/2023 snowfall predictions for the United States, Canada, and Europe, from the global long-range weather forecasting systems
Oh joy that made for poor viewing if you like snow. Mind 6 out of last 9 winters as I've mentioned have been abysmal for snow.. so we are used to it!
Why is la nina hanging around so long!
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44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Quite a shocking looking 10 day ppn chart here - just look at that ribbon of concentrated ppn just funnelling into NW Scotland. Flooding here for sure. Elsewhere, its looking wettest over western hills, with the very dry theme continuing in the S/E/SE of the country. Very mild here for the next week with temperatures in the upper teens, cooler further north and west. Quite windy through midweek - with Wednesday perhaps seeing gusts above 50mph as a low develops.A classic NW- SE type divide spell, wettest further NW, driest further SE. There is a frontal feature developing a wave Tues into Wed with SW Scotland, NW England and NW Wales name on it. These features are very common said parts, the type that easily deliver 100mm on the fells and give rise to local flooding. On occasion such as Nov 09 and Dec 15, exceptional rain.
Alas its a text book long draw unsettled SW airstream. Not the type I enjoy at all, but thankfully we haven't seen much of this year.
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4 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:
Someone is going to have a very big heating bill this winter...
Maybe so but unfortunately a lot of people simply wont be able to afford to heat their house to 18 degrees this winter. Sadly I think we’ll see a big increase in cases/deaths from flu, hypothermia and leukaemia this winter. Which is why I’m hoping we get an exceptionally mild winter this year.
Reality is an exceptionally mild winter, lets say many weeks with maxes between 7 and 10 degrees won't result in homes warming up to comfortable levels at all. Often mild is combined with dull and wet. Today my flat now is 16.7 degrees, ive had no heating on, outdoor temp is 13.8 degrees. A very mild winter will temper things but only a bit.
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39 minutes ago, 78/79 said:
As much as I like a good cold winter, the timing this year could be disastrous for a lot of people.
Sky high energy bills, combined with extra mortgage outgoings could tip many over the edge financially.
Unlike many on here, I'm old enough to remember 4 million being out of work, 16 % interest rates, and people posting their house keys back through Building Society letter boxes.
Quite a few have a huge shock coming to them I'm afraid, and to be honest a severe winter certainly wouldn't help in the slightest.
But as ever, the weather will do as it wishes whatever we want or don't want.
I've noted before how cold winters have coincided with harder economic times.. just a coincidence I think but notable:
78-79, 81-82 came at times of economic woe, also winters 84-85 time of strife - miners strike, when the ecomomy boosted late 80s winters were mild, then recession and oh look winter 90-91 popped up, then the ecomomy gradually improved by late 90s mild winters, this held through until next crash in 08-09 oh look winters became cold, slump up until 2013 and then look winters became mild... the depths of pandemic came same time chillier winter 20-21... how all uncanny!
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Not a bad day overall. A few fleeting showers early on, and blustery, but predominantly dry with some sunny breaks. Tomorrow set to be quite decent as well. A useable weekend.
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Just hope we don't see our biggest snowfall in November this coming season, as happened last year. Last winter another shocker for snow fall along the dismal likes of 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19, 19-20. 6 out of last 9 have been abysmal amongst most snowless ever.
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Models all painting a very typical outlook for the time of year. A broadly westerly flow with the atlantic in full ascendancy. Frontal features with oomph moving through the UK, giving copious rainfall for the NW in particular. Weak ridge development shown for next weekend, and then signal for more of a flow from between north and west longer term as the azores high ridges further west and north which will turn things colder after a relatively mild start to the month. GFS and ECM would very likely produce first widespread ground frost overnight 9th into 10th, all a long way off.
If you like autumnal unsettled conditions the outlook will suit you fine.
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From a health perspective, WHO recommend indoor temps should not drop below 18 degrees. Lots of guidance states 17 degrees absolute min. If it drops to 16 degrees this is not healthy. Whilst some may cope with 13 degrees etc, this is not good for health.. yes I remember ice in the windows etc, but also remember how uncomfortable it was.
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Whilst comfortably over the 61-90 average which is fast becoming very out of date to compare mean against, why officially still use it I don't know, Sept 2022 was bang on the 01-20 average, and only 0.4 degrees above the 81-10 average, which perhaps should become the mean we measure against. Therefore a very near average month.
Anyone know why 61-90 still used? When did 41-70 stop being used in 1990? or 2000? Either way its more than 30 years since 1990.
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1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Wow! 1st October and we hit 20.3c! Didn't feel it mind.
Yes power of the sun on the wane now.. still has a bit of warmth in it, but in about 3 weeks time especially in the north its strength becomes weak.
Once October arrives I resign myself to 5 months of non- sitting outside on the garden terrace. With heating, not so, or when resting as part of a walk wrapped up, but general sitting out, well that's it until Spring.
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North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
Looking a notably wet period ahead... October most of the time is a washout.