damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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North atlantic SSTs remain very warm throughout.. we don't have cold SSTs near Greenland, lets see if this is maintained, whilst the warmth is likely to generate stronger storm systems you would think, conversely the temp gradient between north and mid atlantic is weaker, this factor probably means weakened jet... and propensity for stronger heights.
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Just watched GFS 12z timeframe, any attempt to pull in polar air thwarted throughout... its been the theme of 2022, low pressure to the SW and heights to the east.. its persistance is remarkable combined with a sluggish jetstream.
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Current pattern is a classic west based negative NAO, low pressure to the SW, high pressure further north and north west but crucially to the SE as well. End product very mild southerly source, a lesson Negative nao doesnt necessarily equate to cold in the colder half of the year, in the summer often means very warm. We saw this set up in early Sept.
It is an interesting pattern though, not your normal October fayre.
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Notably windy day, not much else to say.. next..
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
North Westerlies are not what they used to be locally in the Western Pennines- granted with hills at 400m+ within 5 miles of my front door it can be very snowy in a PM set up but for low lying areas it's usually cold rain.
The warming Atlantic the obvious culprit and the ssts look high again .
Basically I'm at the point whereby anything Atlantic sourced is of little interest,the comparison in Dew points in an East versus West sourced air scenario is chalk and cheese..
Unless its a Dec 2009 set up, we had thundery snow from a SW flow off Irish Sea, the flow was arctic but took a long sea passage around a low pressure. Excellent snowy synoptic 20-21 Dec 09!
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GFS most progressive of the models this morning, reverting to type.. ECM least, UKMO in the middle. Often the case..
GFS shunts the trough east by the end of the week, ECM keeps the low to the SW going nowhere...
End results, colder from GFS, staying mild with ECM.
Long term GFS shows kind of evolution tied to la Nina Nov composites, high pressure out west and a chilly northerly/ north westerly flow.
Models have been caught out by tye positioning of the jet in recent days, only until very recently has a warm southerly source with low to the SW been forecast. 2022 continues to not follow the script.
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45 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:
Northerly winds not great for many locations in terms of snow, mainly wishbone snow showers. My preference would be a North Easterly formylocation. Plenty of snow showers driven well inland.
Depends, much of winter 09-10 was northerly sourced and there was widespread snow often. If you have heights to the NW, low pressure and frontal features can attack from all directions, giving snow from all directions. The straight sourced northerly though is often shortlived associated with low pressure moving into scandi and mid atlantic heights, sometimes troughs are embedded and can last a couple of days, other times its a 24 hr toppler. The key is robust heights to our NW linking in with heights over the Pole as happened in winter 09-10 and Dec 10..
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Thinking the warm atlantic SSTs are injecting quite a bit of heat into the atmosphere intensifying the rain despite lack of marked temp contrasts on marked frontal features or low pressure. All feels more summer like rain... than autumn, still October is a very wet month here.
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Where are we rainfall wise? Looking a wet month for many..
2 hours ago, richie3846 said:IMO there's virtually no chance because the temperature would have to be 2c above the current CET of 12.1, so around 14c for the rest of the month for that to happen. That's 16c days/12c nights or 17c days 11c nights for example. It looks mild yes, but for that to continue to the end of the month is unlikely.
Last week of the month all to play for still, it did look like things would cool down markedly, by next weekend, but now the models are showing a relatively mild period holding out.. but we are seeing quite marked daily variations, so a cold end could still materialise.
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23 hours ago, Norrance said:
There was a cover of snow above around 800 mtrs widely in the Highlands today. Here is a photo of Ben Lawers in Perthshire earlier today coming out of a snow shower.
Good to see, I was in the Cairngorms late Oct 2019 and there was plenty of snow above the sane height.
Its not normally until mid Nov we see snow sticking on our highest tops.
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Just seen some comparisons of the Met October forecasts for N-J period and the only three since 2009 that it showed northerly heights were 2009, 2010, 2012... mmm, 2009 took to December though for heights to take control, 2010, spot on, 2012 yo yo heights in Dec- Jan, but was correct with less atlantic influence. It performed very well I would say!
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12 minutes ago, reef said:
October is turning out to be exceptionally sunny in this neck of the woods. We just hit 102 hours today. The 1991-2020 average for the entire month is 108 hours and the record sunniest was 144 hours!
For the year we're up to 1751 hours, compared to the 1991-2020 average of 1599 hours and the record sunniest of 1842 hours back in 2003.
Even if November and December were equal to the dullest on record, we'd still finish on 1812 hours.
A remarkable year for dry, sunny weather.
Its been a very westerly/south westerly month so far, which favours eastern parts sunshine wise.
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2 minutes ago, Don said:
Is this alarm bells starting to sound for the winter period?! Potential cold weather continuously getting pushed back is not a good sign at all!! Still very early days of course, but I'm not liking the way the pattern is trending currently!! Eurasion snow cover has also ground to a halt over the last week (and may have even declined slightly) and not likely to advance much for the forceable either.
On the contrary the way the atlantic is behaving would I think increase chance of cold weather, just a case of where the high pressure sets up. In January it sat in the wrong place for cold, but had it nudged a bit east... apologise this would be better in the winter thread.
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Jetstream forecast is a ragged one, normally at this time of year we would expect low pressure to move west to east. alas models showing a cut off low to our SW going nowhere, seems stuck in a washing machine. We saw very similiar synoptics early Sept, indeed its been a common theme this year, with heights to our east sucking in warm southerly air.
Longer term still the indication something colder will manifest, but again the theme for 2022 seems that no cold is allowed. Its been an odd year with the atlantic out of oomph.
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Window of fine weather in the Lake District. After yesterday's rain, rivers tumbling and waterfalls alive.
More rain this evening.
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I've said before, all homes are different in terms of the extent to which they retain heat, also the type of energy source you have. Location is key as well. Personal circumstance also a factor.
Those saying can keep it off a long time are very fortunate indeed.
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A tempestuous day, thunder and lightening, intense heavy downpours, hail, strong downdrafts, resulting in sudden localised flooding, drains overloaded. Wild!
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In that transitional period between early autumn and deep Autumn. Deep Autumn I describe as period roughly 20 Oct to mid November, when we see rapid change in the feel of things, first air frosts likely for many, first cold feeling days, leaves peak in colour and break off quickly, light loss is signficant with clocks going back, sun loses all strength.
By mid Nov, the late autumn feeling sets in.. and preparation for winter and christmas takes over.
I find late October/ early Nov the most evocative time of the year, senses come alive. This is the last weekend of the year before that marked change in physche to one where the 'winter' head sets in, and usually the last one before you ditch the summer clothes/ light jacket attire. This is from a northern and Lakeland perspective.
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1 hour ago, Aleman said:
The temperatures were plummeting in Scotland last night before the cloud and rain arrived. Aboyne's new low for the season was -3.8C somewhere around midnight but had warmed to 7.0C at 6am. It looks like it would have been about -7C if it had not clouded over.
Decoded synop reports
WWW.OGIMET.COMSuspect that is the current low minima for the new season. I'll be posting my minima temp thread before end of October.
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4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
Simon Lee.
2009-10 stands out clearly with persistant negative NAO.
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A day of showers today, current temp 10.2 degrees. A word on max temps forecast, at this time of year we have to remember these may only occur for an hour or two around 1-3pm mark, for example a forecast high of 13 degrees may only be achieved for an hour between 2 and 3pm..
The day may go like this.
8am 8 degrees
9am- 12pm climb to 10 degrees
12-1pm up to 11 or 12
1-2pm up to 13
2-3pm 13
3-4pm down to 12
4-5pm down to 11
5-6pm down to 10
6-12am down to 9
12am to 8am hover between 8 and 9
A good portion of the day fails to go above 10 degrees.
This is how a westerly typical Oct day goes. High pressure days sees much more marked rise in morning and fall in evening..
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As mentioned GFS and ECM push the low pressure to our SW through by this time next week and we then see colder conditions with the UK residing on the cold side of the polar front jet. GFS interesting output, northerly flow eventually after cold cyclonic and showery conditions.
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2 hours ago, TheOgre said:
If it wasn’t for the beautiful colours of the trees and the unmatched vibes of Halloween, October would probably be the most boring month of the year along with November; Low chance of summer like warmth, low chance of anything cold, just blandness.
November’s arguably the worst though with zero chance of warmth and low chance of interesting cold.
As already mentioned in this thread, spring offers far superior conditions.Mmm November can be very cold, 2010 for example, but overall not easy to achieve. I agree October probably month when extremes temp occur least. Autumn by far most uninteresting season if you like extremes.
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ECM chalk and cheese, previous run showed low pressure overhead 23rd, now it has high pressure, as said reliable timeframe short at present.
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Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I recall ECM performed terribly last winter with its winter forecast.