damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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Could be a few first ground and air frosts central southern England overnight.
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Chilly 5 degrees this morning, misty in the valleys, feels Octoberish!
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4 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:
Norway has pixels now. We should start to see snow on the Urals soon as Winter spreads West from Siberia
Always thought snowfall over Scandi is a barometer as well..
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A very wet evening, expecting October to be our first notably wet month since February. Rarely is it a dry month in the Lake District.
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Not much to say about today's weather, other than about to go downhill here, with rain knocking on our door.
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Models continue with the theme they've shown for quite sometime now, a change from a mild flow between south and west to a coldee flow from north to west as we see amplification of the jet, end result, azores high kicked west, and a colder northerly sourced airflow next weekend, which is just within the reliable. All looking chilly and cyclonic, blow away cobwebs weather.
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25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
Still looking a lot cooler and stormier then what the ops are suggesting... mean upper flow sourced from Greenland isnt mild!
Quite a pronounced ridge of heights to the west, looks cold and cyclonic for the UK, with the wrap around heights to the north, interesting set up against the usual zonal grain we see in October.
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20 minutes ago, The PIT said:
Sunny Sheffield at 12.6C -0.6C below average. Rainfall unchanged.
Is that against the running mean? Yes I think the north is running much close to average than much of CET zone.
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Type of accommodation you reside in makes big difference to indoor temp. Older properties especially large detached ones really do lose heat very quick, compared to a modern top floor flat..
Ive given in this evening, its an old big house, its west north facing big bay window and very open to the west in aspect.
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NW BBC weather report currently reporting from Haslingden, saying very cold and acting like its freezing! Over the top!
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May October do a September.. another very mild start to the month, shoukd see a gradual downturn days ahead. Like Sept, October is a rapidly cooling month even more so and a chilly last 10 days can make a big dint in the CET.
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29 minutes ago, jon snow said:
The Gfs 12z operational, albeit changeable, doesn’t seem as unsettled.. or cold as some previous runs?..and ends rather anticyclonic!.. to me, I’m not fussed about early toothless cold, I want cold at the business end of the process, when it actually delivers the goods.. in winter!
If it ran further it would see the high kicked NW and a cold northerly. The trigger that runner low to the north of Iceland, trajectory SW into the main trough. All conjecture.
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Chilly evening, has that deeper Autumn vibe to it, next 2 weeks sees that transition to deep Autumn.
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1 hour ago, iand61 said:Aye I was reading the Netweather early winter forecast and a front loaded one looks possible if not likely.
whether this relates to snow or just frost we’ll no doubt find out nearer the time and it could end up being completely wide of the mark anyway but with all of the talk of high energy bills and even gas shortages leading to power cuts it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the weather played its part in adding to the conditions.
as for the here and now, a dry start followed by a couple of hours of rain including a short torrential spell but drier now with even a bit of blue sky poking through.
pretty much spot on to what was forecast.
just hope they are as accurate with the dry weekend they are talking about.
Not wanting to sound political, but I woukdn't be surprised if part of reason government stepped in with cap on energy prices partly influenved by tip off of early forecasts for the winter, after all they see more information than we do. These early warnings of cold winter at least intially feed into current narratives about reducing energy use. Listening to some reporting there appears to be a view that we can cope with a cold start, but not a cold winter Jan onwards..
16 minutes ago, jimben said:Plenty of minor roads flooded in the northern lake district but all passable with care. The waterfalls and becks all full and impressive. Really beautiful to see all the becks pouring down the fellside. Thirlmere will be grateful for these recent heavy rains as I am sure will Haweswater.
Couple of weeks time and the Lake District will pull on its full autumnal cloak, resplendent in brown, gold, yellow, orange, ochre, crimson and red.
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BBC NW forecast just now misleading showing 15 degree here at 5pm, yet it is below 13 degrees now and only set to drop.
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This morning's rain moved through quickly. It was a squall line.
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Fantastic archives. Snow so early unusual.
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12 minutes ago, richie3846 said:
Met are going for a front loaded winter, November and December most likely for cold.
96-97, 10-11 spring to mind. 96 I think was la nina as well.
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There were a pair of cold Octobers some 29-30 years ago now in 1992 and 1993.
Oct 92 was consistently cold notably latter part, I think snow fell in northern parts.
Oct 93 I remember a very frosty spell mid month. Shap recorded -9 degrees, some winters fail to deliver such a low.
Please share memories and stats of these months.
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5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
November 1993 was chilly, and the summer of 1993 was shockingly poor.
You mentioned cold winters, yes there were a few brief cold spells Dec 87 to Feb 94, Dec 90 mid month, late Nov 93, late Dec 93 in the north, mid to late Feb 94 but with exception of Feb 91, nothing particularly notable. The cold autumns of 92 and 93, chilly summers of 92 and 93, June 91 and cool summer 88 cancelled out by general anomalous warmth rest of time.. Autumn 88 to Autumn 92 waa exceptionally dry as well.
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1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Nah I wanna say around 9th 10th. We just come back from Germany where we had gone for snow!!! Got back here as it started. Started as we got off the M25 and onto the M3 and the more south we went the deeper it got!! Got here to 7inches! Opened the front door and the house was 7c as the heating had broken!! Slept in coats that night...
Can't have been 9th, 10th 2009, there was no snow then, are you thinking 16th/17th that is when the snow started from memory, I think Thursday 17th, definately a Thursday as I drove to NE England and snow was falling.
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Long way off but next weekend could bring first wet snowfall for very highest lakeland tops.
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2 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:
It's identical to 2020-21. With all those eastern Europe heights and the positioning of the trough, I don't consider it that great personally.
He also said that is the top analog, so no coincidence here.
Those in the north who like cold and snow would happily take another 20-21. it had its moments, plenty of light snows, just lacked a big snowfall eveng here. Dec was a sandwich month, cold start and end, similiar to 2008, Jan was generally cold, Feb cold first half, mild second. Overall very 08-09, and quite 00-01.
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I'd say from about 20th on the sun really loses its warmth, by early November it hasn't any.
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Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
2020-21 keeps cropping up. 99/2000 and 13/14 were very different to the other 3 winters. A very mixed bag of winters.