damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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Oh dear feels like we've been plunged into November. A thoroughly dark wet day, heavy rain on and off. Very gloomy right now, low misty cloud.. have the clocks gone back already?
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12 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
It's waiting til' Winter proper gets underway
but agree with your summarisation of the current situation, day after day of the same stuff and warm continent...almost a stuck west based QBO.
Taking a break from model watching for a week or so, as I do from time to time when everything is very sluggish...
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Its a stuck pattern for the foreseeable, trough to our west/sw, ridge to our east, mean flow predominantly between west and south. Mild for all, very mild further SE.
Longer term, need to wait for upstream changes, will the pattern shift east.. or west.. will we see something akin to GFS 12z, which shows the ridge backing west and south west.. and then NE bringing a scandi high. One thing that seems absent is a powering of the jet.. leading to a very slow moving pattern, we've seen this since Dec 2020, la nina base state possible reason..
Where has the zonal flow gone?
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20 hours ago, Don said:
We are probably at the low point now for the month and will start rising again moving forward. I'm thinking possibly high 12's as a final landing point?
Would be interesting to note how many Octobers achieved lowest mean mid month.. rare, as typically October is a rapidly cooling month.
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As per usual N America only place that seems to see colder than average conditions nowadays, along with far NE China and E Russia.
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Generally cloudy so far.. but high level and clear. Current temp 12 degrees. All quite non- descript.
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10 days left before winter state of mind sets in, regardless how mild it is.. there is a marked change in feel of things when clocks go back.
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12 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
Yes the shift into the darker time of year from the clock change weekend until early March is the biggest shift.
Summer warmth and the long summer day feelings are long gone by this point.
One weekend left, then plunged into dark... Sunday 30th marks the dark day..
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
Following on from Cambrians excellent post an October wet spell isn't the end of the world.
Someone can correct me but I believe Oct/ Nov were wet in 2009 and 2010 ..precursor pattern to an early winter Northern latitude blocking regime ?
Ive mentioned Nov 09 before, very wet indeed... Autumn 2010 was drier, but both saw blocked amplified set ups, similiar to this Autumn.
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55 minutes ago, Ross90 said:
The trough is really getting squeezed hard by day 10, possibly a path to a more settled spell as the lp has nowhere to go other than ne.
Yes eventual direction as everything shunts east.
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14 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
ECM det runs of recent days have been mind numbingly boring if you're looking for something other than a southerly jet...so strange to continually see, not our normal west to east Atlantic weather though far from it. What it holds for the coming months god knows but by god I want that continent to cool down.
Its an amplified jet, and a sluggish one, that's been the theme of 2022, lost count the amount of times low pressure has spun to our SW this year caught between high pressure blocks to west and east. It makes for a potentially interesting end to 2022 in terms of non zonal flow.
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Nothing cold on the horizon, indeed mild all the way to Halloween it seems, mild nights. Another appreciably warmer than average month on the cards.. will November break the 2022 theme..
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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Globally? Hemispherically? Or just in the general vicinity of Blighty?
UK synoptics, low pressure languished to the west/ sw pumping up mild SW air and lots of rain here at least, blocked by heights to our east and south east. Atlantic struggled to break through. This isn't a zonal flow.
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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
Yup.
Dreadful pattern ,basically a west based - NAO which promotes mild Europe and sometimes a very wet UK as systems stall near our shores.
On a brighter note EC46 has the pattern flipping as we head into November with blocking High in the North Atlantic which if nothing else provide something more seasonal...
With Exeter and EC 46 on the date page I'm hopeful of colder drier conditions come early November, we then look to see if the projected N Atlantic block can push towards Iceland to open the possibility of a frigid NE'ly with heavy snow showers blown in off the North Sea..
You never know ...
Nov 09 same pattern...
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Those noting lack of cold this month, October is traditionally warmer than April and quite often May.
Unlike the wet half of the year, Aug to Feb, we are yet to enter the cold half Nov to May.
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2 hours ago, jimben said:
Heavy dew, almost a ground frost in the rural northern lakes with a min air temp of 3.8c. Now one of those heart stopping moments of cloudless blue skies although cloud now starting to cling to the summit of Blencathra.
I have recorded rainfall for the last 15 days. Unlikely any will be recorded to today.
Superb walking weather in the Lake District.
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A crisp chill morning, not quite frost levels, currently 6 degrees. Sunny and blue skies, best morning and day of week weatherwise.
Can't say the models are enthusing me at present, mainly SW flow which equates to dull wet weather most of the time here.
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Models behaving as they did in the summer, the atlantic shall not break through the N Sea it seems.. alas we do finally see a break through in about 10 days time, that 10 day timeframe again
In the meantime its a case of watching low pressure spin round like a washing machine to our SW seemingly unable to stop, until the jet gives it a kick.
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2 hours ago, iapennell said:
The National Snow and Ice Data Centre so sea-ice limits close to normal positions for mid-October just east of Greenland and in the north of the Davis Strait- even though the Davis Strait remains ice-free. With the Greenland ice-cap also cooling rapidly along with NE Canada, would not the warmer-than-normal surface of the North Atlantic would support stronger baroclinicity in the far North Atlantic going forwards?
NSIDC map here:
Im reflecting on the 'cold blob' years post 2012 when the atlantic was much colder near our vinicity and we had a number of very wet mild winters, since 2020 the atlantic has been warmer and the last 2 years have delivered a weaker sluggish jet.
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1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
Sounds like different people have been having different experiences with this October, all depending on location.
Here in the Midlands, it has been fairly dry for much of the time (though there were a couple of wet days earlier in the month). There has been a plenitude of sunny days with temps near or just above average. Some fairly warmish days (for the time of year) this week, before a transition to more unsettled conditions and average temps.
Overall, it certainly hasn't been the most interesting of months so far. I have noticed that we seem to get more action from around the time the clocks go back.
Last week of October typically brings first stormy conditions of the season, atlantic revs up, more often than not its mild, some years exceptionally so.
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7 minutes ago, Frigid said:
Looks like a mild October is on the cards, certainly didn't look that way a week ago. Was expecting a cooler month after that 2nd half to September. Unless we see a cooldown at the end of the month I don't see the CET being any lower than 12..
Dice haven't quite fallen, but we were not far off a colder second half, had things nudged a little further east. Dice never seem to fall on cold nowadays. However second half of Sept was cold, think a mean of 12 degrees..
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32 minutes ago, richie3846 said:
Dry here, 25 percent of the whole month average, what a contrast. Brize Norton 27 percent, Lyneham 23 percent, those are the official met stations, environment agency stations in the area are also recording well below average numbers. 72 percent is a different world, clearly a different October to ours, which has been dry, mild and sunny.
Turning into a classic NW-SE divide month, as much of the year has been, airstream a predominantly westerly/south westerly so not surprise to see a wet NW and drier SE.
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Looking at the foreseeable, October 2022 likely to go down as a wet mild one with limited settled, or cold weather, or stormy here at least. All a bit humdrum.. roll on November, shake things up please.
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32 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
The ECM mean anomalies give a good illustration of how the modelling of the trough has moved it progressively westward from 10 days ago at day 10, through to today at day 0, here the charts at 2 day intervals from the 0z runs. Ten days ago the trough modelled over the UK for today, the modelling first nudges it west and then steadily firms up on progressively lower heights well out to our west. A big difference for us as the outlook changes from cyclonic becoming northerly to being stuck with a southwesterly.
Two other points worth mentioning. Firstly, by contrast, how good the positioning and heights of the Greenland ridge was - pretty much spot on from 8 days out. And secondly, despite the effect of the local adjustments being profound in terms of the difference between the expected and realised feel of our weather here, just how well the hemispheric pattern is modelled from 10 days out.
A pivotal period in this autumn’s models? Could well be, with the outlook now for low pressure likely anchored to our west over the Atlantic for most of the rest of October, unless and until of course, the models adjust again…which they no doubt will!
Good post, what looked like a cold cyclonic latter part to October has flipped to mild cyclonic. Shows how local subtleties have profound consequences for this neck of the woods, the atlantic trough is very weak, its really a cut off low feature - caught between heights either side, and with no oomph to the jetstream has nowhere to go - an odd outcome, in normal circumstances we would have a more mobile flow. Can see how we may easily exchange the current unsettled outlook for something more settled eventually - if the pattern shifts east.
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North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
Keep hearing word 'warm' being banded about in weather reporting, whilst it is notably mild for the time of year, mid teens i'd never class as 'warm' and I would never describe the late October sunshine as warm, as was said by NW weather reporter today.. im being pedantic. It seems as soon as we reach deep autumn, anything mild is termed warm, yet in the summer months such temps be called chilly or cold..