[September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

0.3 degree drop, expect at least the same tomorrow's update and quite probably through until Monday. Could well be in the 15s as soon as the equinox. 

[First ground and air frost watch 2022-23 season]

8 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

15th-6.1 Dalwhinnie (Inverness-shire) 1979

16th-3.5 St Harmon (Powys) 1986

17th-5.1 St Harmon (Powys) 1986

18th-5.0 Tummell Bridge (Perthshire) 1986

19th-5.5 St Harmon (Powys) 1986

 

Tonight is unlikely to get anywhere close to any date records.

Gosh 1986 was very cold, 4 nights in a row mins below -3 degrees. Struggle yo achieve that in Jan and Feb nowadays. What caused such a cold spell.. came on the back of a cold August.

Shap current leader 2.5 degrees. Would be good to achieve first air frost before equinox, many a year have to wait until after.

[First ground and air frost watch 2022-23 season]

Sennybridge overtaken Shap, 2.7 degrees. Shap 3 degrees. First air frost highly likely given we have another 7 hours of cooling. 

[First ground and air frost watch 2022-23 season]

Shap current cold spot 4 degrees. Spadeadam and Sennybridge next two. 

[North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards]

6 minutes ago, severe snowstorm said:

The breeze has largely died away here. Quite still out now with largely clear skies and just a few clouds around, glowing orange/pink from a cracking sunset. Should be a nice starry evening/night. If it can remain clear and the breeze stay away, the temperature should easily get a notch or two lower than last night. 

Yes a possible ground frost for some early hours. Shap may see an air frost. Great sunset, peachy colour skies.

[North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards]

41 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Despite being mostly sunny with fairly light winds it’s just 13°C with 49% humidity at 1pm here. Dew point just 2.5°C! So it’s feeling more like an early spring day than what you would expect in mid September. Coldest it’s been since April I think.  Not just the chill but also the dryness of the air that’s notable. Last night was another cold and clear night with a low of 6°C. Won’t be long until the first ground frost. Can’t remember a spell like it in mid September before.

Yes currently 13.4 degrees here. Humidity 50%. Very dry very clean air, often the case in polar northerly. It feels chilly. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's just a bit of a 'meh' time of the year forecast. Not warm, not cold, just very average and fairly non-descript. Not surprised the thread is a bit quiet after the craziness of the summer we've just experienced.  

Time for the refrain ' Wake me up when September ends' springs to mind. Always the most trying month for weather enthusiasts I feel.

[Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

The psychological affect the weather and more especially the solar calandar has on each of us can be very different it seems. For me I find the periods around the equinox the most unsettling as they mark transition of greatest change.. I'm more comfortable and rooted in the depths of winter and summer it seems, sort of know where I am in Jan and July.

If it wasn't for christmas, November and more so December would be the time when my energy would be most drained.. alas it motivates me instead. I do feel we should hibernate in Jan and celebrate New Year 1 Feb, or better still 1 March.

Overall the most positive period of the year is May, peaking late June.

[First ground and air frost watch 2022-23 season]

I suspect England will see its first air frost of the season early hours of Saturday. Not sure if it will be Shap, or further south say Benson or Pershore. 

[August 1995 a sizzler!]

1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

A bit like September 1986,on paper it is the Coldest September since the Queen arrived on the throne with many frosts but the days were warm and pleasant with a lot of T shirt days,just to show what statistics mask!

The mean CET value tells you little about the reality of a month. A shortlived heat spike set against modest warmth can distort the reality of the month. Very warm maxima can be cancelled out by cool minima to produce near average means, comparable to months with littke diurnal range. 

[Record Warm Atlantic SST's discussion & possible effects]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Very cold air leaving Canada is going to result in explosive depressions forming over these waters then heading to Europe, yes the track might be further south but surely a wet winter is a dead cert?

Then again as someone said high SSTs support high pressure but I still think a wet winter is now very likely.

Andy

Cold zonality possibly, low pressure more southerly, battleground snow/rain, north in polar air.. we shall see.. I think high pressure could well be more stubborn though especially earlier in the season.

[September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

Down it goes and significantly so over next few days.

[North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards]

30 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Aye I think that’s my plan for the weekend, certainly Sunday will be a tidy the garden day although Saturday may be a public transport wander into Manchester for a few beers and a bite to eat.

Last pleasant feeling weekend ahead, ideal conditions for outdoor activities, everyone make the most of it.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

2 hours ago, minus10 said:

Interesting that both Gfs and Ecm 0z have mean and op well below 1981 to 2010 average until at least 21st...quite a cool period we are entering for a while..

Yes long time since we've had nearly a week of below average temps, will knock the CET down quite a bit.

[North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards]

Cool uppers moving in now. Current temp 15.3 degrees and feels cool despite good sunny breaks. Chilly night ahead.

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Yes - last week really of any last vestige feeling of summer... thankfully it looks very pleasant.

[First ground and air frost watch 2022-23 season]

4 hours ago, Osbourne One-Nil said:

I'm only 7 miles from Shap and it was 4.6º last night. Shap has the advantage of elevation I think, but the disadvantage of being Shap....although the chippy is excellent. 

Shap is high, located on a plateau about 1000ft. 

[North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards]

9 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Yes Saturday morning in particular looking a bit chilly. Some of us in more frost prone spots could very well have an air frost or at the least close to it. The only fly in the ointment I see is cloud cover, wind looking calm or very light. I do wonder if the sluggish Atlantic could usher us into a more sustained colder than normal period. That's it I've jinxed it now. Somethings got to give though because we was so unlucky last year with that area of HP parked to our south most of Winter. It could have been a cold winter otherwise.

Certainly an air frost possible jn prone spots, Shap for instance. Much will depend on cloud cover, but the air will be cold enough. We recorded -3 degrees 23 Sept 2012 under a similiar synoptic.

[North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards]

A rarity in this warm year, a period of below average temps ahead, quite a bit so as well, expected highs 13-15 degrees, and mins 4-8 degree range, take the mean value of 14 and 6 degrees and you have a return of 10 degrees, some 4-5 degrees below average mid Sept mean. 

[First ground and air frost watch 2022-23 season]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

Shap looking favourite to secure England's first frost of the season.  It was 2.6C there this morning and colder is expected. It sounds like there could be plenty of the usual places recording frosts by Saturday morning.

Yes Shap often first air frost contender. It's had a ground frost already.

[Memories of 1983]

Late 82 brought a super El Nino, possible reason for the exceptional warmth in USA.. and may have been a factor in the switch around between Jan and Feb.

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

21 hours ago, MP-R said:

A good winter north of the border... followed by a very decent summer by their standards too. 

2018 was quite similiar, not the same depth of cold, apart from end of Feb, but generally it was quite a cold winter in Scotland followed by a wonderful summer.

[September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Yup now looks like a split month coming up rainfall wise a wet first half and drier 2nd half.  So looking like we will get stuck on 62% of average rainfall.

Could be quite an odd September, mild wet first half, cool dry second half, normally first half associated with dry, and second half wet, with cool only at the end. It's turning into a very different September.

[North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards]

3 hours ago, Maz said:

If all autumn days were like today it would be my favourite season.

Moon shining through Field mist at dawn with seasonal coolness.  Lovely warm sunshine through the day, but never too hot.

Shame autumn is more often grey, drizzle and a bit grim!!

 

September though is often fine especially first two thirds, a singularity it seems nowadays, October and November are the duller months, especially November.

Odd to see the heavy rain in London right now, we've had a fine sunny dry day.

[North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards]

Evidence we are now into mid September and a cooler airmass. Not sure how low temp was this morning. but I had heavy condensation in the window this morning, with no heating on... and even though sunny clear skies current temp only 14.3 degrees.