damianslaw

If it is was all snow, no doubt it would do that given it's plain old rain I think we will strike lucky this time. Certainly have the warm air aloft, currently still 20.7 degrees and this will aid instability, the low pressure is slightly closer to our shores as well.

Summer 2012 brought a southerly tracking jet, so no wonder signficant melt season with high pressure over the Pole. This year we've had complete opposite an absence of heights over the Pole. Indeed the last 10 years has brought alot of blocking over the Pole and signficant ice loss. We are not far off the melt season of 1995, some 27 years ago, and note tye similiarities with the synoptics of 1995 and 2022 including the cyclonic September after record warm August...

Are these temp anomalies or pressure? If pressure suggests a trough parked over west europe, with a southerly jet becoming more NW- SE aligned by Jan given the high pressure to the NE. Would set up a possible cold wintry end to the year.

Almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Some rain last night but yet again barely anything.. its been very warm again. Max 23 degrees.Lots of sunshine, again looking at current synoptics you woukd think high pressure overhead.. will we again have a third eve/ night with smattering of rain. This current unsettled spell has been more settled than unsettled, rain very sporadic..

We are in that no-man's land period - first three weeks of Septmeber, when summer seems to want to cling on, but nature shows we are now in autumn but the weather rarely seems to play ball - flipping between a late hazy languid often pleasant summer state, with brief shots of early autumn. We see the same state of affairs first 3 weeks of March, winter clings on - but we have a much more dualistic set of forces at play then, it still looks like winter - bare trees etc with glimmers of spring only, but then the clocks go forward and any sense of winter is shut down - conversely late Sept doesn't coincide with clocks going back, and mother nature only slowly continues to transition into autumn - often taking until mid Oct nowadays before it puts on full splendour, gales can occur in late Sept I guess making it feel more autumnal, but of all the seasons its the one that seems to arrive later and later, and lasts the shortest, by mid Nov it firmly feels like winter namely due to lack of light, and the preparations and expections associated with christmas just take over. We've had such threads and thoughts before, but based on state of feeling I would say our seasons are now: Early winter - mid Nov - late Dec Heart of winter - late Dec - mid Feb Late winter - Mid Feb - early March Early Spring - early March to late March Mid Spring - late March to late April Late Spring - Late April to late May Early Summer - Late May to late June High Summer - late June to mid Aug (longest of them all) Late Summer - Mid Aug to mid Sept Early Autumn - late Sept to mid Oct Mid Auutmn - Mid Oct to Early Nov Late Autumn - this one lasts about 2 weeks only until 3rd week of Nov.. Weatherwise: Depths of winter - mid Jan to mid Feb (coldest period of the year) Late winter - Mid Feb - early March Early Spring - Early March - Early April (cold spells often likely) Mid Spring - Early April - Early May Late Spring - Early May - late May (becoming shorter.. sometimes late May brings summer) Early Summer - Late May - Early July Depths of summer - Early July - Early Aug (hottest part of the year) Late summer - Early Aug - mid Sept (this season has lenghtened markedly well into Sept) Early Autumn - Mid Sept - Mid October Mid Autumn - Mid Oct - Mid Nov Late Auutmn - Mid Nov - early Dec Early Winter - Mid Dec to Mid Jan

Quick descent into dusk around 7.15pm this eve and quite dark already 7.30pm given the overcast skies, we are going down rapidly!

Whilst only early September - I feel a separate thread - early thoughts winter 2022-23 may be warranted, otherwise this thread looks like it will quickly become the winter discussion thread... I'll see if mods think too early for such a thread, but inevitably as we enter Autumn thoughts turn to winter.

Whilst GFS and ECM are closely aligned in the shorter term up until about Friday with low pressure anchored to our west slowly moving across the UK through the week and out into the N Sea by Friday, filling somehwat in situ, there is divergence thereafter, ECM builds heights over and to the north of the UK for a bit, whilst GFS maintains a more unsettled picture with another low pressure to our west pulling in a warm southerly flow for a bit, but then importantly both in the longer term show the same evolution, one where low presure phases with the main atlantic trough and we draw in low pressure from the atlantic. In overview a generally unsettled outlook for the foreseeable but possibly a short period next weekend where it settles down - this is based on this evening's run, we could well see either a consistently unsettled spell with no settling down, or a more longer settled period.. I suspect though any settled period next weekend will be shortlived, as the jetstream becomes stronger week after.

Another very close muggy day, indeed felt very warm in the sun this afternoon 21 degrees max, wouldn't have thought low pressure parked just to our west. This morning I had expected to see a fair amount of water about given the radar showed heavy rain about 7am. Alas barely a dampening.. what is happening with these fronts, seem to be squeezed of all vapour when reach NW only to intensify over Scotland. Can only think due to local dynamics.. a bit of a rain shadow effect given the flow is SE/South. This eve we have a showery airstream, the shower just passed gave a minute of moderate rain, but the radar shows yellows and again would have expected something more intense. Give me a typical atlantic front and airstream from south west to north west.. they mean business, not this warm humid cyclonic one giving sporadic bursts. Tomorrow set very warm in the region 24 degrees widely.

Just taking the UKMO this evening, the current low pressure is still forecast to be influencing the UK in 7 days time, that's one lengthy low pressure system hanging about... all indicative of the fact we have a cut off low. 7 days is as far out as I will comment right now. Until then an unsettled outlook, rain, showers, some drier brighter spells in places, often quite warm relative to early Sept average even under the rain and cloud. Windy at times as well. Quite a lively spell of weather ahead, difficult to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will fall. GFS is equally unsettled if not more so, but rather than keeping the current low over the UK, it shifts it east on Thursday followed by another deep low with tropical origins in time for next weekend - which would result in a very wet one indeed.

A very muggy close day, with low cloyd and a grey overcast sky so far, yet not one drop of rain has fallen. May see a shower before day is out, there is a trough feature to our west.. a front is due early tomorrow which should produce some rain possibly heavy.

Mmm some stronger or neutral heights over the Pole there.. looks a cold trough scenario to me, no stromg euro high and azores high displaced.. Apologise if this is turning into a winter prediction chat, inevitable such chat would kick off now summer gone.

East looking best for dry weather.

I take some comfort if you want something colder this winter that the signs for this summer whilst decent were nothing special and look what we've had..

Most likely a warmer than average Autumn given we are in a perpetual warm phase it seems at present. Not sure about rainfall..perhaps close to average with yet again NW- SE divide in evidence, wet to the NW. Mind some useful rain at times in the SE. Could be some chilly anticyclonic weather at times especially November and perhaps some early wintry weather as well. October could produce some notable warmth if we tap into southerly airstream... but could be followed with cold switcharounds. Covering all bases here! Just like a met office forecast!

What was ENSO state in 2013-14?

Often its a very slow progression into Autumn proper.. autumn equinox usually the turning point. I don't expect particularly unsettled conditions first half of Sept at least. This year is starting off on a very different note to many recent Septembers though, with a very slow moving low pressure. We also have as always the case ex tropical storm factors that can make forecasting in September trickier than most other months. Could from a synoptic state make this September quite interesting, cyclonic best way to describe things when lows on the scene rather than typical atlantic low, ridge/ trough anticyclonic pattern.

Lots of frontal and trough features moving through. In these set ups, its a nowcast situation. There is potential some places will see alot, others less so.

2014-15 brought a fair bit of cold zonality at times but no where near as potent as Jan 84.

Cold zonal perhaps then? I guess most people want a mild fairly wet but not too wet a winter.. keep heating bills down but also prevent drought conditions next spring and limited flooding. A cold dry winter would perhaps be the worst combination, but on the flip side means limited risk flooding or damage due to storms. Generally wet winters tend to be stormy with flooding.. in a no win situation really. A wet autumn would help immensely.

The rainfall spike model charts - can't say I ever look at them, and would treat them with perhaps most caution than any other modelling charts - precipitation amounts are notoriously difficult to predict.

I sese a few are relying on these rainfall prediction models a bit too much, best just to wait and see what happens. Its a tricky set up to forecast, we don't know where troughs and fronts will position themselves, where convection may kick in, how much instability will be generated and there will be plenty given we are in a warm air mass... lots of uncertainty. Expect sudden surprise developments, rain to suddenly appear out of nowhere, fronts and troughs to suddenly appear out of nowhere, thundery outbreaks to spring up all of a sudden, showery activity to pop up all over the shop - we are not talking to typical frontal atlantic features here.

Why does 1975 and not 1976 not feature, is it because records don't go back that far.. I suspect 1976 would be top, and 1975 perhaps fifth in that list? Interesting to see 1984 doesn't feature, that summer was really a west was best type, it was exceptionally dry in the Lake District, drier than this summer.

The NE Pacific has been anomalously warm since 2013/2014 it seems... and high pressure has largely been the dominant feature in most winters most of the time since that one - leading to west canada being favoured for some very cold conditions at times as the trough digs in from the NW. Would be interested to note temps over central/west Canada and CN America since winter 2013/14 - I suspect the only part of the northern hemisphere that has seen average temps against the mean or indeed below at times.. As for pattern matching, I don't base forecasts for months and seasons based on synoptics that may look similiar to another single month - the rest of 2013 with exception of July has shown virtually no similiarities with 2022 so far for example..

Yes we are now entering time of year when rate of daily light loss reaches its maxim, 2 mins morning and eve each day, until the clocks go back. Which means 28 mins each week.