damianslaw

The psychological affect the weather and more especially the solar calandar has on each of us can be very different it seems. For me I find the periods around the equinox the most unsettling as they mark transition of greatest change.. I'm more comfortable and rooted in the depths of winter and summer it seems, sort of know where I am in Jan and July. If it wasn't for christmas, November and more so December would be the time when my energy would be most drained.. alas it motivates me instead. I do feel we should hibernate in Jan and celebrate New Year 1 Feb, or better still 1 March. Overall the most positive period of the year is May, peaking late June.

I suspect England will see its first air frost of the season early hours of Saturday. Not sure if it will be Shap, or further south say Benson or Pershore.

The mean CET value tells you little about the reality of a month. A shortlived heat spike set against modest warmth can distort the reality of the month. Very warm maxima can be cancelled out by cool minima to produce near average means, comparable to months with littke diurnal range.

Cold zonality possibly, low pressure more southerly, battleground snow/rain, north in polar air.. we shall see.. I think high pressure could well be more stubborn though especially earlier in the season.

Down it goes and significantly so over next few days.

Last pleasant feeling weekend ahead, ideal conditions for outdoor activities, everyone make the most of it.

Yes long time since we've had nearly a week of below average temps, will knock the CET down quite a bit.

Cool uppers moving in now. Current temp 15.3 degrees and feels cool despite good sunny breaks. Chilly night ahead.

Yes - last week really of any last vestige feeling of summer... thankfully it looks very pleasant.

Shap is high, located on a plateau about 1000ft.

Certainly an air frost possible jn prone spots, Shap for instance. Much will depend on cloud cover, but the air will be cold enough. We recorded -3 degrees 23 Sept 2012 under a similiar synoptic.

A rarity in this warm year, a period of below average temps ahead, quite a bit so as well, expected highs 13-15 degrees, and mins 4-8 degree range, take the mean value of 14 and 6 degrees and you have a return of 10 degrees, some 4-5 degrees below average mid Sept mean.

Yes Shap often first air frost contender. It's had a ground frost already.

Late 82 brought a super El Nino, possible reason for the exceptional warmth in USA.. and may have been a factor in the switch around between Jan and Feb.

2018 was quite similiar, not the same depth of cold, apart from end of Feb, but generally it was quite a cold winter in Scotland followed by a wonderful summer.

Could be quite an odd September, mild wet first half, cool dry second half, normally first half associated with dry, and second half wet, with cool only at the end. It's turning into a very different September.

September though is often fine especially first two thirds, a singularity it seems nowadays, October and November are the duller months, especially November. Odd to see the heavy rain in London right now, we've had a fine sunny dry day.

Evidence we are now into mid September and a cooler airmass. Not sure how low temp was this morning. but I had heavy condensation in the window this morning, with no heating on... and even though sunny clear skies current temp only 14.3 degrees.

Please keep this thread alive.. it may well justify some activity this week, especially end of the week. Report any ground or indeed air frost.. i'll be keeping an eye on minima..

Scotland endured a consistently cold period from Christmas Eve through until mid February. As evidenced by the fact a number of lochs began to freeze by early February.

The most temperate feeling the year can give is when high pressure is on the scene second half of September - best conditions for outdoor activities.

Could well be a sandwich type month, one with three layers.. the top thick slice denoting wet and warm, middle dry and cooler, bottom slice.. average and wet possibly might be a thin slice...

Yes the evolution of 12z GFS more akin to after effect of a SSW, high pressure over scandi, then major retrogression to the NW and a jetstream collapsed.. an odd run, suspect an outlier. ECM heading towards an atlantic breakthrough but a slow affair.

Unusually the weather today better further north in the region you went. Apart from a brief showery burst early afternoon it stayed dry. Nice sunshine late afternoon and an evening complete opposite to yesterday, fine and clear and still quite light at 8pm. Current temp 12.7 degrees. A long run of nights single digit minima ahead, could well see our first ground frost by the weekend.

Quite a cool down forecast from mid week on and into next week. Even London looks like it will return means 13-14 degree range, below par for mid Sept, CET zone a degree or so cooler would expect. The first half of Sept 2022 will though go down as one of warmest on record I expect. The slow moving low pressure system to the SW key reason, it maintained very warm tropical air over UK and prevented clear skies which at this time of year begin to have a marked cooling effect on mean values.