damianslaw

Winter 10-11 repeat perhaps!

Noting good leaf colour change at present. However, we've yet to have a good frost, and generally the best colours come after one, provided the wind doesn't blow the leaves off beforehand. As a general observation much vegetation is in quite a stressed state due to the very dry summer, and leaves looked quite shrivelled and lacklustre through much of August. I wouldn't say we have quite reached the point in which Autumn rushes away with itself, the next week looks mild and no frost. Normally its around mid October when that rush sets in... mid Oct to mid Nov is a period of great change in the countryside.. akin to mid April to mid May when everything bursts into life. That first day that struggles to make double figures even when sunny normally for me marks that change, and nowadays often takes until mid October. The foreseeable looks like delivering 12-16 degree maxes..

High pressure to the east, with an atlantic trough digging through the UK and high pressure to the west - all quite possible, which would result in a cold wet winter here, snow and rain..

Another very decent day for early October, mild, benign, dry, not much sun, but quite bright, and little wind. October has started off very kind in the Lake District, but all is about to change, a generally very unsettled windy and wet period ahead.. oh joy!

Oh joy that made for poor viewing if you like snow. Mind 6 out of last 9 winters as I've mentioned have been abysmal for snow.. so we are used to it! Why is la nina hanging around so long!

A classic NW- SE type divide spell, wettest further NW, driest further SE. There is a frontal feature developing a wave Tues into Wed with SW Scotland, NW England and NW Wales name on it. These features are very common said parts, the type that easily deliver 100mm on the fells and give rise to local flooding. On occasion such as Nov 09 and Dec 15, exceptional rain. Alas its a text book long draw unsettled SW airstream. Not the type I enjoy at all, but thankfully we haven't seen much of this year.

Reality is an exceptionally mild winter, lets say many weeks with maxes between 7 and 10 degrees won't result in homes warming up to comfortable levels at all. Often mild is combined with dull and wet. Today my flat now is 16.7 degrees, ive had no heating on, outdoor temp is 13.8 degrees. A very mild winter will temper things but only a bit.

I've noted before how cold winters have coincided with harder economic times.. just a coincidence I think but notable: 78-79, 81-82 came at times of economic woe, also winters 84-85 time of strife - miners strike, when the ecomomy boosted late 80s winters were mild, then recession and oh look winter 90-91 popped up, then the ecomomy gradually improved by late 90s mild winters, this held through until next crash in 08-09 oh look winters became cold, slump up until 2013 and then look winters became mild... the depths of pandemic came same time chillier winter 20-21... how all uncanny!

Not a bad day overall. A few fleeting showers early on, and blustery, but predominantly dry with some sunny breaks. Tomorrow set to be quite decent as well. A useable weekend.

Just hope we don't see our biggest snowfall in November this coming season, as happened last year. Last winter another shocker for snow fall along the dismal likes of 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19, 19-20. 6 out of last 9 have been abysmal amongst most snowless ever.

Models all painting a very typical outlook for the time of year. A broadly westerly flow with the atlantic in full ascendancy. Frontal features with oomph moving through the UK, giving copious rainfall for the NW in particular. Weak ridge development shown for next weekend, and then signal for more of a flow from between north and west longer term as the azores high ridges further west and north which will turn things colder after a relatively mild start to the month. GFS and ECM would very likely produce first widespread ground frost overnight 9th into 10th, all a long way off. If you like autumnal unsettled conditions the outlook will suit you fine.

From a health perspective, WHO recommend indoor temps should not drop below 18 degrees. Lots of guidance states 17 degrees absolute min. If it drops to 16 degrees this is not healthy. Whilst some may cope with 13 degrees etc, this is not good for health.. yes I remember ice in the windows etc, but also remember how uncomfortable it was.

Whilst comfortably over the 61-90 average which is fast becoming very out of date to compare mean against, why officially still use it I don't know, Sept 2022 was bang on the 01-20 average, and only 0.4 degrees above the 81-10 average, which perhaps should become the mean we measure against. Therefore a very near average month. Anyone know why 61-90 still used? When did 41-70 stop being used in 1990? or 2000? Either way its more than 30 years since 1990.

Yes power of the sun on the wane now.. still has a bit of warmth in it, but in about 3 weeks time especially in the north its strength becomes weak. Once October arrives I resign myself to 5 months of non- sitting outside on the garden terrace. With heating, not so, or when resting as part of a walk wrapped up, but general sitting out, well that's it until Spring.

Still enough warmth in the early Oct sun outside of the wind to make it feel pleasant. It has the same strength as early March. In about 3 weeks time, around 20th, that warmth reduces markedly and days thereafter generally no matter what the temp says become too uncomfortable to sit out in unless wrapped up.

Sometimes October and November can offer teasers as to what the winter may bring. Low pressures that dive into Europe on a NW- SE trajectory, rather than west-east, can be a harbinger that the atmosphere is not all normal. Also low pressure that comes unstuck over the UK, cyclonic spells. We've largely seen a sluggish jet since Dec 2020, lets see if it continues.

Its called a maritime climate, when the airflow is between SW and NW, more often than any other direction, it is humid and temperate, lots of associated cloud. As we move into October, such air generally means showers or overcast skies between fronts, unless there is a long fetch polar flow entrenched.. then brighter showery air occurs, the NW polar maritime airstream. The tropical.maritime airstream is absolutr worse here, detest it, returning polar maritime not much better. Polar maritime, arctic maritime and polar continental in the Oct to March period are the best for clearer conditions. Tropical continental and SE flows can be very dull.

Reflections on past winters will always be based on local conditions. Decembers 1998, 2001 and 2004 all brought some snowy cold conditions at times in the north, 2001 notably so, that was an underated December, exceptionally sunny, frosty with snow at times second half. Dec 04 brought a white christmas here. Dec 98 transient snow early on more so in the NE, overall Dec 98 worst of the bunch for snow and cold.

Jan 2023 will mark 10 years since I've received what I would class a heavy single snowfall, 6 inches plus. We just missed out in March 13 and late Feb 18. Plenty of 1-3 inch falls since only. Hoping this winter produces at least one heavy fall that can stick around a couple of days at least, preferably falling on a Friday. Not much to ask for!

Cold cyclonic would suit cold lovers and those wanting rain which may turn increasingly wintry by year end. Won't suit those wanting to reduce energy bills.

A very contrasting month, one of those switcharound ones, where a very mild first half is cancelled out by a colder second half to produce a near average finish, and a mean that doesn't reflect the month at all.

I can't recall any winter when 'factors' have stacked in favour of a colder than average winter. Solar state may have been a key factor in the slightly colder than average winter 20-21. Last year I think we were unlucky, heights didnt quite align in a place for cold against a sluggish atlantic. Whilst the analogue years mentioned apart from 10-11 were mild overall, Dec 01 was quite cold, 98 brought a northerly shot, 04 as well, 07 brought a cold frosty spell, so Dec at least could be wintry. Apart from 07 the Novembers were cold at times, with northerlies. Looks like northerlies could be a strong feature end of the back, with strong mid atlantic ridging.

October is the time when there is a psychological shift from the summer state of mind that kicks in when April arrives, exhanged to the winter state of mind. We mentally prepare ourselves for the long winter ahead. In this sense 1 October and 1 April might be said to be most pivotal points of year for the mind body and soul!

My interest picks up late October.. we are in that transitional period when odds of 'extremes' temp wise at least are at there lowest, though at the start of the 6 month period of the year when storms and heavy rain most likely.

October usually one of our most mixed changeable months and often wet, sometimes very wet. Struggling to see a below average month, but perhaps quite cool at times, similiar to September without the warmth. Ill go a slightly above average 11 degrees. Could be quite wet in the north at least, but fairly dry further south at times. May well see a northerly plunge at some point. Overall a very average autumnal October, nothing out of the ordinary. Sneaky feeling November could be less normal.