damianslaw

Those noting lack of cold this month, October is traditionally warmer than April and quite often May. Unlike the wet half of the year, Aug to Feb, we are yet to enter the cold half Nov to May.

Superb walking weather in the Lake District.

A crisp chill morning, not quite frost levels, currently 6 degrees. Sunny and blue skies, best morning and day of week weatherwise. Can't say the models are enthusing me at present, mainly SW flow which equates to dull wet weather most of the time here.

Models behaving as they did in the summer, the atlantic shall not break through the N Sea it seems.. alas we do finally see a break through in about 10 days time, that 10 day timeframe again In the meantime its a case of watching low pressure spin round like a washing machine to our SW seemingly unable to stop, until the jet gives it a kick.

Im reflecting on the 'cold blob' years post 2012 when the atlantic was much colder near our vinicity and we had a number of very wet mild winters, since 2020 the atlantic has been warmer and the last 2 years have delivered a weaker sluggish jet.

Last week of October typically brings first stormy conditions of the season, atlantic revs up, more often than not its mild, some years exceptionally so.

Dice haven't quite fallen, but we were not far off a colder second half, had things nudged a little further east. Dice never seem to fall on cold nowadays. However second half of Sept was cold, think a mean of 12 degrees..

Turning into a classic NW-SE divide month, as much of the year has been, airstream a predominantly westerly/south westerly so not surprise to see a wet NW and drier SE.

Looking at the foreseeable, October 2022 likely to go down as a wet mild one with limited settled, or cold weather, or stormy here at least. All a bit humdrum.. roll on November, shake things up please.

Good post, what looked like a cold cyclonic latter part to October has flipped to mild cyclonic. Shows how local subtleties have profound consequences for this neck of the woods, the atlantic trough is very weak, its really a cut off low feature - caught between heights either side, and with no oomph to the jetstream has nowhere to go - an odd outcome, in normal circumstances we would have a more mobile flow. Can see how we may easily exchange the current unsettled outlook for something more settled eventually - if the pattern shifts east.

I recall ECM performed terribly last winter with its winter forecast.

North atlantic SSTs remain very warm throughout.. we don't have cold SSTs near Greenland, lets see if this is maintained, whilst the warmth is likely to generate stronger storm systems you would think, conversely the temp gradient between north and mid atlantic is weaker, this factor probably means weakened jet... and propensity for stronger heights.

Just watched GFS 12z timeframe, any attempt to pull in polar air thwarted throughout... its been the theme of 2022, low pressure to the SW and heights to the east.. its persistance is remarkable combined with a sluggish jetstream.

Current pattern is a classic west based negative NAO, low pressure to the SW, high pressure further north and north west but crucially to the SE as well. End product very mild southerly source, a lesson Negative nao doesnt necessarily equate to cold in the colder half of the year, in the summer often means very warm. We saw this set up in early Sept. It is an interesting pattern though, not your normal October fayre.

Notably windy day, not much else to say.. next..

Unless its a Dec 2009 set up, we had thundery snow from a SW flow off Irish Sea, the flow was arctic but took a long sea passage around a low pressure. Excellent snowy synoptic 20-21 Dec 09!

GFS most progressive of the models this morning, reverting to type.. ECM least, UKMO in the middle. Often the case.. GFS shunts the trough east by the end of the week, ECM keeps the low to the SW going nowhere... End results, colder from GFS, staying mild with ECM. Long term GFS shows kind of evolution tied to la Nina Nov composites, high pressure out west and a chilly northerly/ north westerly flow. Models have been caught out by tye positioning of the jet in recent days, only until very recently has a warm southerly source with low to the SW been forecast. 2022 continues to not follow the script.

Depends, much of winter 09-10 was northerly sourced and there was widespread snow often. If you have heights to the NW, low pressure and frontal features can attack from all directions, giving snow from all directions. The straight sourced northerly though is often shortlived associated with low pressure moving into scandi and mid atlantic heights, sometimes troughs are embedded and can last a couple of days, other times its a 24 hr toppler. The key is robust heights to our NW linking in with heights over the Pole as happened in winter 09-10 and Dec 10..

Thinking the warm atlantic SSTs are injecting quite a bit of heat into the atmosphere intensifying the rain despite lack of marked temp contrasts on marked frontal features or low pressure. All feels more summer like rain... than autumn, still October is a very wet month here.

Where are we rainfall wise? Looking a wet month for many.. Last week of the month all to play for still, it did look like things would cool down markedly, by next weekend, but now the models are showing a relatively mild period holding out.. but we are seeing quite marked daily variations, so a cold end could still materialise.

Good to see, I was in the Cairngorms late Oct 2019 and there was plenty of snow above the sane height. Its not normally until mid Nov we see snow sticking on our highest tops.

Just seen some comparisons of the Met October forecasts for N-J period and the only three since 2009 that it showed northerly heights were 2009, 2010, 2012... mmm, 2009 took to December though for heights to take control, 2010, spot on, 2012 yo yo heights in Dec- Jan, but was correct with less atlantic influence. It performed very well I would say!

Its been a very westerly/south westerly month so far, which favours eastern parts sunshine wise.

On the contrary the way the atlantic is behaving would I think increase chance of cold weather, just a case of where the high pressure sets up. In January it sat in the wrong place for cold, but had it nudged a bit east... apologise this would be better in the winter thread.

Jetstream forecast is a ragged one, normally at this time of year we would expect low pressure to move west to east. alas models showing a cut off low to our SW going nowhere, seems stuck in a washing machine. We saw very similiar synoptics early Sept, indeed its been a common theme this year, with heights to our east sucking in warm southerly air. Longer term still the indication something colder will manifest, but again the theme for 2022 seems that no cold is allowed. Its been an odd year with the atlantic out of oomph.