damianslaw

Encouraging to see rapid expansion along northern most part Russia into Scandi - if the precipitation shown on the map is all snow.. I remember it doing this in 2009, rather have snow into scandi than much of central/southern russia.

6z shows a marked change by 2 weeks time, heights transfer west and we open ourselves to much more of a polar influence.. mind the models were showing this happening for now a couple of weeks back.. delayed..

Take a look at the synoptical charts of Oct and Nov 2005 - this is the type of transition that we may expect this autumn, a very mild Oct and first half Nov, then colder secon half.. the synoptics this Oct very same to 2005.. and later Nov saw high pressure transfer to the west and there was much northerly influence.. I'd take another Dec 2005 as well, never espevially cold but like 2001 seasonal with lots of dry frosty weather and a bit of snow.. incidentally 2001 produced a very mild Oct and then northerly influence at times in Nov.

The year as a whole has been different to 2006 and 2015..

Not feeling this October at all, where are the crisp days with cool mornings.. early in the month it looked like we might see a more seasonal October after the cold latter part to Sept. Alas second half of the month is turning into one long very mild rather wet/ dank gloom fest in the main... still the autumn colours are now in full splendour. I do hope we see a change in November.

Yes high pressure perhaps setting up to the NW but then low pressure moving down on its NE flank pulling the high westwards.

November 2005 was interesting, a very mild first week, then high pressure took over by mid month, and the second half was notably cold with northerly winds... and snow for some.

I think the Jan 1940 snowstorm was the most significant in the Lake District in the 20th century.

Its interesting how our turns of phrase change, when its mild from now on until about April we say warm, yet same temps in the warmer half of the year would be described as cold...

Oddly I always think the chance of cold are much higher after a lengthy 'southerly very mild period as we are having now, all that heat heading north, comes back as cold heading south... warm air advection...

Wouldn't quite describe the late October sunshine as 'warm', has same strength as the mid Feb sun.

Very rare for Met Office to mention snow, normally say a wintry mix especially so early in the season, also coldest in north and west.. must be seeing a signal for an arctic NNW flow.. would be a big shock after what will be a very mild second half to October lingering into November. We shall see if it sticks with it, the colder forecast keeps being pushed back, but the met has been steadfast in mentioning it for Nov last couple of weeks.

2 years late? Reference to the charts posted.. seem confused. Looking at tye graphics and presenters would hazard a guess the charts are from sometime 2000- 2005, but can't recall any such snowy synoptic as shown during that timeframe.. Feb 04 or 05 possibly?

When was this? We've low pressure in similiar position now, alas no cold air to tap into.. but rhe currwnt synoptics of southerly lows are increasing my confidence this year may be different, higher snowfall stakes.. we shall see. Back to today, very pleasant for late October, sunny breaks, current temp 14 degrees, ideal walking/outdoor weather, good timing for anyone visiting Lake District, half term as well. Now entering peak autumn colour season, thankfully not much wind so fae blow leaves away early. This is the last 'light' weekend of the year... make the most of it. Tomorrow looks quite poor mind.. so we have one more chance of a light decent weekend day in next Saturday.. believe me in 2 weeks everything feels very different, much more winter state..

Keep hearing word 'warm' being banded about in weather reporting, whilst it is notably mild for the time of year, mid teens i'd never class as 'warm' and I would never describe the late October sunshine as warm, as was said by NW weather reporter today.. im being pedantic. It seems as soon as we reach deep autumn, anything mild is termed warm, yet in the summer months such temps be called chilly or cold..

Oh dear feels like we've been plunged into November. A thoroughly dark wet day, heavy rain on and off. Very gloomy right now, low misty cloud.. have the clocks gone back already?

Taking a break from model watching for a week or so, as I do from time to time when everything is very sluggish...

Its a stuck pattern for the foreseeable, trough to our west/sw, ridge to our east, mean flow predominantly between west and south. Mild for all, very mild further SE. Longer term, need to wait for upstream changes, will the pattern shift east.. or west.. will we see something akin to GFS 12z, which shows the ridge backing west and south west.. and then NE bringing a scandi high. One thing that seems absent is a powering of the jet.. leading to a very slow moving pattern, we've seen this since Dec 2020, la nina base state possible reason.. Where has the zonal flow gone?

Would be interesting to note how many Octobers achieved lowest mean mid month.. rare, as typically October is a rapidly cooling month.

As per usual N America only place that seems to see colder than average conditions nowadays, along with far NE China and E Russia.

Generally cloudy so far.. but high level and clear. Current temp 12 degrees. All quite non- descript.

10 days left before winter state of mind sets in, regardless how mild it is.. there is a marked change in feel of things when clocks go back.

One weekend left, then plunged into dark... Sunday 30th marks the dark day..

Ive mentioned Nov 09 before, very wet indeed... Autumn 2010 was drier, but both saw blocked amplified set ups, similiar to this Autumn.

Yes eventual direction as everything shunts east.