damianslaw

GFS 12z complete opposite to revent runs which showed low pressure steam rolling through towards later Nov, now high pressure overhead.. make up your mind!

Dark already!

GFS 6z doing what the GFS often does, runs with atlantic powering through.. but we've had a year where it has has to back track many a time, with trough disruption.. ... hitting the line through N Sea. It is already showing heights to east holding firmer early next week, then goes a bit messy..

Apart from 2010, and 1996, I can't think of many cold ends to November that lasted through Dec. 1985, 1988, 1993, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2017 saw cold fizzle out quickly as Dec started or mid month Dec. Much prefer cold that commences early Dec a la 81, 95 , or mid Dec a la 09.

I think it is quite average for 8 Nov. Snow in Europe early-mid Nov quite rare, usually hits eastern Europe end of Nov into early Dec, along with most of Scandi. Our coldest sourced air in Nov comes from the arctic.

I suspect most 8 Nov charts show a similiar synoptic. Atlantic most likely to be dominating things, all quite normal. 2012 brought a cold end to Nov, and start to Dec..

Not wanting to open out any climate change debate but wasn't the 13th century warmer than today...

Another dull wet grey leaden sky day. Three hours will be going dark. Nov and Dec atlantic SW airstreams the worst of them all! Miserable!

Blob of sub -10 uppers over Ukraine, just where not needed..

Completely agree. GFS is sinking the jet further south and elongating troughs more NW-SE hence we see polar maritime air in the mix, Im expecting the trigger will come from trough disruption over UK.

Waterfalls in full spate in the Lake District. Great time to see them set against autumn woodland scenery.

Must be reading it wrong, it still goes for a block to the west/nw by end of Nov.

Perhaps not, but notable the number of cold Novembers followed by relatively mild or mild winters.. especially December - 2013, 2016 and 2019 especially so. The saying if November ice bears a duck, winter will be full of muck..

Too much divergence between ECM and GFS this eve. Both doing what they often do, GFS progressive, atlantic moves in early next week, repeated polar NW flow, cold and unsettled. ECM maintains the blocked theme. I'm none the wiser why so much variability.

2013, 16, 19.. all followed by very mild winters... perhaps just as well this one looks ending mild.. 2009 great case in point. 2010 very cold but like 96, cold relented mid Jan. 85 cold, Dec very mild, 93 cold.. Dec mild in south at least.. Better correlation with warm Octobers and cold or coldish ends to the year, 1968, 1978, 1995, 2001, 2005...

Yes direction of travel from NW as move through mid month, thereafter every chance of something colder with ridge to west/nw, far more likely than an easterly, in Nov very hard to achieve.

Sign for lots of polar air injected into airstream second half Nov.. which would increase snow risk on high in north, all quite normal.

Yes November in a nutshell.

Yes I am saying keep an eye on position and strength of high pressure forecast to move to our NE in a week's time. A robust pressure build will enable cold pooling, and the atlantic could struggle to make inroads into scandi, this is evidenced by GFS 6z showing a negatively aligned trough. Indeed trough disruption, cold and cyclonic could be end result before heights to the west, north west or north take over. I said it will be a long week in here.. as the models won't handle the heights to NE well.. coukd well be a good time to take a break from model watching for a week, and see how the line of travel most likely lies.

Very uninspiring day, early- mid Nov renowned for being so..

Unfortunately there is little colour left here, trees stripped bare, mind many flowers still about including geranium.

I said yesterday felt very much a drab Sunday in November. Today very much a Monday morning in November, dull, grey skies leaden with rain, oh joy! This time of year generally least appealing time of year weatherwise. Generally its a tough time of year phsychologically for everyone. Early Jan more so, but early- mid Nov next.

Just seems in past decade only place in northern hemisphere doesn't see any anomalous cold is Europe. Also lots of cold air ejected into mid atlantic at times which does us no favour. The persistant azores high- euro high to our south seems to have become a permanent feature nowadays, displaced further north, always wanting to head north, and keeping jet to the north and locking cold over Pole, never ending cycle..

As others have said, the talk of 'blocked' conditions from mid November, now seem questionable, but too early to dismiss any chance of something settled verifying at some point before month end. I can see a path to heights to the west setting up in around 2 weeks time, heights to the NE will block the atlantic moving east, and instead we see low pressure sit to our NW, but importantly jet forecast to shift south kicking azores high west, if heights to the NE dont sink south, this jet pattern would in time send low pressure through UK and drop SE, heights can then build in behind to the west. I said keep eye on position of heights to NE, models notoriously struggle with such features and underestimate strength, the PV is quite weak still.

Long way to go yet.