damianslaw

Good to see snow build in scandi, a better sign for potential wintry fayre here than snow building south througg central russia.. 2009 delivered a similiar pattern I recall.

Perhaps it well take a freezing easterly to bring it down! The deeping of the trough in mid atlantic reason why, this year has seen the jet split on many occasion with cut off lows to our SW, or just digging far south to our west for some reason promoting heights to build to the east of it, the UK has by and large sat at the boundary line meaning the airstream has been predominantly due south and west.. as a consequence of the block to the east and south east.. if such a pattern held sway, the block would in time become colder and we may exchange the mild theme for something much colder.. trough disruption the order of the day..

Keep the faith! Don't get that sinking feel!

The longevity of warmth on the continent has been exceptional this year it seems. An omen came in May when Spain and Portugal had a early injection of heat, since then its been repeat episodes.. and the cooldown has been very slow. We've had very slow moving patterns this year, blocks have held the atlantic at bay, certainly the jetstream has been very weak and diffuse. Low pressure held out to our west all year most of the time. Answers on a postcard for the lack of oomph to the jet? Benn the case since Dec 20.. we've had similiar periods in the past I guess..

Yes reading between lines looks the case, probably heights building in from the south to centre over the UK as we move through mid Nov, probably cold nights and average temps by day, but would at least feel more seasonal than the silly warmth we have now. November can be a miserable dull wet month, a high overhead would be most welcomed. Always a chance could then migrate to a more favourable position for notable cold come December, or just sink away south!..

November possibly most miserable of them all, especially if not a fan of the run up to christmas! By Jan glimmer of light at the end of a long tunnel, but November the tunnel just gets blacker!

Yes seems a case the atlantic trough becoming unstuck against the imprenetable euro heights, at times it may inch east through the UK before being pushed west again.. need some sort of major shake up to bring colder drier conditions.. the output shows no clear path to such change... yet at least.. is there a brick wall in the N Sea?

Yes I'm in a similiar circumstance, but it's still a shock regardless. Agree it's the Monday you notice it most rather than Sunday. Need to make most of lunchtime breaks, essential to get out and about..

2 evenings left before we switch to winter mode..

Suspect the freezing line will drop markedly as we move into November. A westerly airstream though won't be enough to pull it down low enough to produce anything wintry just yet.. need an injection of polar air. Hoping by mid Nov we may see something more wintry.. mind many a Jan goes by with the fells stripped bare of snow for lengthy periods.

Halloween 2014 quite probably was milder.

Like air frost, snowfall on the fells has not been a feature of Autumn so far.. lets see what November brings.

Oh dear this thread isn't seeing much action so far this Autumn. Had hoped we may have seen our first air frost of the season, usually have by now. Alas its looking a late one this year.. probably not until second week of Nov at the earliest looking at the longer range models. I've alot of geraniums and treasure flowers still in full bloom, shoukd have died by now..

Looking very blocky, good if you like frost and fog. and by late Nov a high overhead can produce very cold air at the surface and our own UK cold pool.

Models quite volatile just beyond reliable, chopping and changing, suggests pattern change on the cards, and they need more time to latch onto the likely trend.

Just a rather mild drab spell here.

15-16 degrees max, above late Oct average which around 12 degrees, but not very notably so.

Despite the mild its a drab day here so far... November is knocking..

Late Feb 18 does prove extreme cold can make it to the UK still in the right circumstances.. yes that was strat induced.. had such synoptics occured a month earlier we could have seen record breaking cold. Alas 1 March did bring date records. Feb 21 produced a low of -22 or -23 in Highlands in less than cold synoptic. Extreme Cold will happen when the synoptics allow. Its not gone away, it just getting the synoptics.

ECM showing interest at the 9 day timeframe, low pressure disrupting and heights building in over the top ridge into scandi. Interesting.

3 evenings left before the dark sets in before 5pm!

Oct 2014 was even warmer... the sun though is rapidly losing heat, a day between April and Sept same temp would feel far warmer.

Yes granted, the odds of colder are probably against us, as seems the norm these years, but we always need to have an open mind. Whilst we may not be in the same climatic sceanario as the likes of 1976, 1995 are two other warmest summers, these were folllowed by cold Decembers at least.

Oh I hope no Nov 2009 redux, one of wettest months on record here, with disasterous flooding, but yes I can see the trough becoming slow moving with copious rainfall... and its not a bad pattern for building blocks for something colder longer term, as it suggests heights to the NE blocking the trough's passage., as indeed we saw in 2009. A word on anyone using this thread to write off winter cold and snow, please don't - use the winter thread for now, and then the moan thread.