damianslaw

Be prepared for the first 'dark' late afternoon of the season. 16.40 sunset today.

2005-06 was consistently chilly rather than cold and very dry. Probably one of our frostiest of last 30 years, and hardly anything mild. Lots of days with 3-6 degree maxes .. bit of snow at times, late Feb to mid March was cold though.

Charts beginning to see a change to high pressure emerging in about the 10 day timeframe. Looking like heights will build in initially from the south as the jetstream shifts north. Question is where will they ultimately set up, interesting to note GFS showing an amplified jet thereafter with trough into scandi this allows the high to ridge north through UK and most likely the pull back west. Yesterday it was going for a scandi high though.. as I said the fact it is showing varied output long term is simply due to it being unclear at the moment of where heights will eventually end up. What has been steadfast is this signal for high pressure to take over at some point in Nov, we just can't say when and how just yet.

No, its a classic scandi high, atlantic forcing would most likely see it retrogress.. GFS 12z ends with a classic scandi high, yes way in long range but shows a route out of the mild and wet. GFS hardly ever shows scandi highs at such range. I must be viewing different charts?

Latest seasonal models if you follow them make for quite interesting view if you are not of an atlantic rainfest persuasion. Europeans and asian all going for variants on high pressure blocking holding greater sway, often in a higher latt position.. american models less so. Im not a fan of long range modeks, but unusual that they are going for such synoptics, mind perhaps not so given how blocked this year has been - these increase chance of cold winning out markedly. Let's see if theme maintained late Nov.

Same as 2014 that was warmer still!

Very good post, yes the likely evolution to something more settled at least, will come courtesy of the trough digging further south into Europe this should be enough to allow for pressure rises to occur to our north and north west, low pressure becomes cut off so to speak - something we've seen alot of this year, but generally to our SW, for something colder needs to happen to our south. A slow evolution through November it seems, patience is a virtue they say!

Possibly GFS deafaulting to its over eagerness to maintain a zonal flow, once one appears, has a habit of doing this. Recent runs have been all over the place.

2014-2016 was a particularly warm period, warmer than the last six years I suspect, 2017 and 2018 - despite the warm summer, brought some colder periods, 2019 summer wasn't up to much, 2020 brought a cooler second half, first 5 months of 2021 apart from March were quite cold, but yes since Autumn 2021 we've entered another very mild period akin to 2014. We seem to be seeing little variation over long time periods that's the most notable change, previously we would see much more of a see-saw effect, warm months followed by colder months, or warm seasons followed by colder seasons and vice versa.

November and December are the hardest months psychologically - and unfortunately tend to be very dull with limited sunshine. Things improve a bit in January but by then we've had 2 months of darkness. A grey wet day in the run up to christmas tends to be the absolute peak of miserableness, thankfully the christmas lights cheer things up.

2001 and 2005 are being referenced in circles, both produced very mild Octobers... in 2001 early Nov brought a cold northerly and the following Dec anticyclonic/northerly. Nov 05 switch mid month to northerly as well, Dec was anticyclonic and cold generally...

We've had a meredional jet for much of 2022, any zonal flow has been very short lived and the background state hasn't changed, I would not be surprised to see a flip to settled, once the flow pushes east, as said think this is the trigger, we need the zonality to shake things to a more La Nina state.. keep an eye on the azores high, one positioned further west indicates the change.

As said a day of pulses of heavy rain, we have one right now, quite miserable and its not very mild either, current temp an average 11.5 degrees.

Wouldn't be surprised to experience a freak exceptionally cold winter not before long, against the background warming, to make us think..what's gping on.. a bit like Dec 10, but will be the exception.

Rain band has cleared through, but forecast is for more longer bursts through the day. One of those frustrating days where you think its stopped but it comes back. Its the last 'lighter' day of the season, make the most of the light lingering to 5.45- 6pm.. tomorrow it will half 4/4.45.

The jet does appear to be digging south on this chart, the azores high is being pulled west, the low could swing SE with strong ridge building behind.. indeed probably nedds a burst of zonal weather to get to somethimg more settled and blocky.. deeper lows allow for stronger ridges..

Its the opposite to expected La Nina imprint, which really does seem to be outflanked by other factors last couple of years, should have ridge to west and trough to east. Alas there is a path to this scenario, should the azores high link over the top with the trough cut off and shunted south, heights then transfer west... the high to the NE needs to ridge further west though for this to happen.

Think there are short memories here, late Feb 18 easterly was quite exceptional, April 21 was one of coldest minima wise on record, yes chances of cold seem slimmer, but they haven't gone away completely. Reading some posts on here, may need to start a winter moan thread before its started!

Yes there are comparisons with the extreme mildness of late Dec, not many foresaw the very dry quite chilly lenghty high pressure spell that set in during January. Came as a surprise to me.

Always think winter takes until christmas to show its true hand.. i.e. the worst cold most likely thereafter, and the base state sets in, either cold or mild.

GFS 18z pulling in colder polar air to the north at least next weekend. Jetstream also heading further south, sign of heights being kicked further west, whicg could be the trigger to something colder and more settled once the trough swings east. However, the models are throwing out alot of different output around 8-10 day range, and I continue to think because there is a pattern change on the cards but they are not settling yet on how things will pan out. May well take a week or so for things to be clearer.

I feel we came unlucky this October, a west based NAO set up and we remained on the warm side of the jet, combined with very little ex tropucal storm activity to shake things up. The colder second half to Sept came courtesy of ex tropical storm activity.

Yes there were some cold Bonfire Nights in the 80s, 1985 springs to mind, but I suspect many a mild one as well. Childhood memories are obscured by memorable events and times.. apart from 1981 all our 80s christmas days were snowless for example, indeed often very mild!

ECM shows warm air advection and a big high would probably develop over scandi just afterwards..

2020-21 was seasonal though with a cold April-May.