damianslaw

January the month we should all hibernate, there is a general shutting down feeling that prevails through the month after the December excess, we see a mini shut down early-mid Nov, but christmas creeps into the month earlier and earlier to wake us up..

November here, the least inspiring of months I say! First half especially. Its felt more akin to depths of autumn today, though mild still, max 12.5 degrees. Thursday and Friday set to bring our first cold feeling days of tye season, could well stay in single figures, mins of 3 degrees, max 9-10 degrees.

Seem to confirm my suspicion, cold first halves to Nov are a major departure.

Psychologically this is a hard week to adjust to, but not quite as bad as that first full week of work in early January!

GFS continues to throw up compleyely different synoptics at the end of recent model runs. Its played with a scandi high before, one thing I notice about the GFS is it has habit of getting it right long term, but drops this in the mid-long term, only to bring it back as comes into semi reliable.. it rarely shows easterlies, interesting to note. Backs up anomalies which suggest heights to the NE.. where is the la nina ridge to the west? All quite puzzling.

Not many if any then.

No fun, no sun, November!

Continued signs long term of a blocked set up, but still too far off to say it will happen definately, and how. In the meantime I spot a mini ridge developing Thursday into Friday, with the trough clearing east and a brief injection of polar air, might we squeeze a ground frost out of it? Will bring the first chill for well over 3 weeks.

Always expect first half of November to be atlantic dominated and mild. Can't recall many a first half to November beimg cold and/or particularly settled, compared to second half. 1985 probably only one. 2006 brought a cold first week but then became very mild. 1978, cold last week only. 1987 turned chilly at the end. 1988 possibly a cold first half. 1993 second half cold, ditto 1996, 2001 brought a shortlived northerly. 2005 second half cold, 2008 became cold late on, 2010 second half cold only, 2012 became cold late on, 2016 was quite cold throughout, 2017 cold late on. Any stats back up general view first half Nov normally mild or very mild.

Gosh looking like we will see a 24 hr period or more Thursday- Friday when temps are at the seasonal average! Shock horror. Couple of chilly nights and days.

6 weeks of continued loss of daylight ahead, oh joy!

7.7 degrees. A very mild first two thirds, followed by a colder last third.

As said GFS has churned out nearly every synoptic at the end of its recent models, treat with margin for high error.

Mmm a rather non descript end to October, in what will go down apart from the very mild conditions a non-descript month. Rainfall probably a bit above average, sunshine near average. No storms again, what has happened to the atlantic in recent years! Last year Storm Arwen came from the north unusually. Looking ahead, less than enthused, but I find first half of Nov, least likely time to escape the mild atlantic steam train.. wake me up in 3 weeks..

We have a shift in the general pattern we've been stuck in for 2 weeks, the atlantic has some oomph to it. Low pressure tracking through the UK pulling in more of westerly feed, still mild, but not the dizzy heights of recent days. It will feel chillier for all. As we move further into November, no major change in terms of mild theme, but continued signal blocking will hold sway, probably to the south at first, but longer term signs further north as well, a pincer attack on the trough. I'm reminded of 2009 which saw a sluggish jet and very mild theme, but then big switch in December, difference this time is we have had 2 weeks already of very mild, so time for change would be earlier later in the month.. Anyone wanting to see definate sign of a change to something colder and settled coming closer to reliable, might be best to take a break from model watching for a week or so at least.

To be expected, at 15 days + margin for differences run to run are huge. Usually when there is such variance from run to run, suggests scatter and a signal of high uncertainty. It's the trends at the 6-8 day mark that should be viewed first. It does end again with high pressure on the scene, a classic trough-ridge-trough pattern with low pressure to west and east and high pressure surging north through the UK.

Memories of Jan 87 quite hazy, but I've mentioned before it coincided with a school weather project where we had to measure temp every morning, and I distinctly remember it being around -5 degrees. Recall snow on the ground. drifts up to a feet deep, so probably not much made it this far west. Sort of remember the severe weather features on the news. Some of my earliest clearest memories of how the weather was impacting everything. The Oct 87 storm my first vivid weather impact event, seeing the destruction it caused on the news.

Certainly not as mild, still relatively so, but will feel much cooler than the past week. Thursday and Friday will feel quite cold in the blustery wind. Many leaves have now fallen, and the countryside in lakeland is starting to take on a late autumn look. The low light around 3pm added to the seasonal feel this afternoon. Cattle will be taken inside, a sure sign, autumn fast marching on.

Look forward to some crisp days..

Thanks for these stats, I knew the three were quite close to each other. My view on 00-01 distorted by the mild first 2 thirds to Dec, but thereon it was consistently cold or average. 2005-06 brought less depth of cold from memory. 08-09 very episodic some notable cold but also notable mild cancelling each other out.

I don't usually analyse each GFS run at far reaches, but I'll comment on GFS 6z interestingly it shows liw heights over central med.. can only see the high has one way to go if this verifies and that's west and north... The coming days will be case of looking at end of model runs to make more concerted guesses on where the high will end up, being definate on its origins at this range now is futile..

Hoping this thread may see some action as we go further into November. Will be a very late first air frost this year here...

Similiar to 00-01 in some respects, though colder overall, much of Dec 00 was very mild. The blocking didn't quite position itself in a place for deep cold or much snow. The coldest since 95-96 until 08-09 I think, 96-97 fizzled out mid Jan.

A gradual decline in temps over coming days to more seasonal values. Indeed Thursday could here be our first day of the season to struggle to make double figures, rather late this year. Generally very unsettled and very normal service for early Nov, settled weather not synonymous with this time of year. Windy as well, something we've spared so far this autumn.

69-70, Dec 70, Dec 76-Jan 77, Feb 78, winter 78-79 cold and snowy, otherwise rest of 70s mainly mild or average, snow minimal.