damianslaw

I've said before, all homes are different in terms of the extent to which they retain heat, also the type of energy source you have. Location is key as well. Personal circumstance also a factor. Those saying can keep it off a long time are very fortunate indeed.

A tempestuous day, thunder and lightening, intense heavy downpours, hail, strong downdrafts, resulting in sudden localised flooding, drains overloaded. Wild!

In that transitional period between early autumn and deep Autumn. Deep Autumn I describe as period roughly 20 Oct to mid November, when we see rapid change in the feel of things, first air frosts likely for many, first cold feeling days, leaves peak in colour and break off quickly, light loss is signficant with clocks going back, sun loses all strength. By mid Nov, the late autumn feeling sets in.. and preparation for winter and christmas takes over. I find late October/ early Nov the most evocative time of the year, senses come alive. This is the last weekend of the year before that marked change in physche to one where the 'winter' head sets in, and usually the last one before you ditch the summer clothes/ light jacket attire. This is from a northern and Lakeland perspective.

Suspect that is the current low minima for the new season. I'll be posting my minima temp thread before end of October.

2009-10 stands out clearly with persistant negative NAO.

A day of showers today, current temp 10.2 degrees. A word on max temps forecast, at this time of year we have to remember these may only occur for an hour or two around 1-3pm mark, for example a forecast high of 13 degrees may only be achieved for an hour between 2 and 3pm.. The day may go like this. 8am 8 degrees 9am- 12pm climb to 10 degrees 12-1pm up to 11 or 12 1-2pm up to 13 2-3pm 13 3-4pm down to 12 4-5pm down to 11 5-6pm down to 10 6-12am down to 9 12am to 8am hover between 8 and 9 A good portion of the day fails to go above 10 degrees. This is how a westerly typical Oct day goes. High pressure days sees much more marked rise in morning and fall in evening..

As mentioned GFS and ECM push the low pressure to our SW through by this time next week and we then see colder conditions with the UK residing on the cold side of the polar front jet. GFS interesting output, northerly flow eventually after cold cyclonic and showery conditions.

Mmm November can be very cold, 2010 for example, but overall not easy to achieve. I agree October probably month when extremes temp occur least. Autumn by far most uninteresting season if you like extremes.

ECM chalk and cheese, previous run showed low pressure overhead 23rd, now it has high pressure, as said reliable timeframe short at present.

A mild outlook will prevent the CET dropping much further in the week ahead, perhaps a slight drop over the weekend, then a slight rise even, normally Oct delivers a flatline drop through the month. Latter part of tye month looking cool though and there could be a marked drop from next weekend on, but unlikely to be enough to enable a below average month, but more akin to September, close to average still within realms of possibility, late Oct can deliver quite cold CET values easily when under clear skies, sun is weak by then.

12z eventually shifts things along, the cut off low to the SW becomes absorbed by the main atlantic trough that pushes heights aside next weekend turning things colder and unsettled, it then moves east replaced by colder drier conditions with heights settling to our west. Let's see if ECM goes same way. we've seen quite marked changes just outside reliable in recent days, 6 day mark, so charts beyond come with large margin for error.

2022 the year that cold is not allowed into the UK!

Yes looked promising not long ago that second half of October would bring colder than average temps, alas synoptics not played out - the theme of 2022, and despite an amplified flow, the dice has fallen on the side of mild, with cut off low to SW meandering around with no oomph in the jet to kick it NE.. 2022 just seems destined to never bring any cold in!

Met Office bullish with there forecast for a dry start to November, cold nights and average days suggests they see high pressure either to the west or northwest centred close to the UK or just to the north.. I say close, otherwise would mention eastern and northern areas showery and colder.

Despite some chilliness, still waiting for that first 'nip in the air' type day of the new season, and the outlook suggests may take until latter part of October for that to happen.

Finding October so far as very average and tedious, all just a bit.... and...

Sensing next week will bring the final flush out of warmth for the year, not unusual for October to produce a last warm hurray, by November even with temps well in the teens you can never describe it as warm.

Seen a heck of a lot worse charts if you are not wanting mild and wet.. cold and unsettled looks order of day, battlground scenarios, north potentially stays cold most of time..

Yesterday models showed a spring switcharound later next week with a southerly then northerly, I say reliable timeframe quite short at present. Expect more swings. By mid October the sun has same strength as late Feb and any warmth even low 20s can never feel especially warm for this reason.

Cold last night, ground frost, not quite air frost yet..

Lovely day so far, crisp and sunny after a cold start, scraped frost off the car windscreen. Current temp 9.6 degrees.

Another sandwich month possibly, first 10 days very mild, middle third near average, last third, colder than normal perhaps?

Losing light rapidly now, clocks go back in 2 and half weeks, then its as dark in the evenings as it is in mid January.

Excellent, many thanks. Widespread air frost then, and ground frost for many.

A meridional pattern being forecast for next week, is this tied in with MJO affect.. buckling of the jet and a more amplified flow.. models showing charts reminscent of summer, with slow moving cut off low to our SW, heights to our east, se and nw.. an exchange of warmer continental air with cold polar air in space of 2 days, very plausible and interesting.