damianslaw

No Friday feeling weatherwise, low cloud to valley level, heavy rain, current temp 10.7 degrees. Many a noon December day the same.

Just looked at the radar, mass of rain knocking on the Lake District door.. can easily see an inch out of this in the valleys, quite possibly double it on the fells. However, it looks like moving through quickly.

Noticing tree leaf colour changes, but we are a good 3-4 weeks away from the most vivid evidence of change. Lots of acorns on the floor. Not seen chestnuts as yet.. the environment is now though in full autumn change.

A pleasant day, felt quite warm, light winds and dry. Tomorrow oh dear, a day to stay indoors.

Where was -1.5. Notable cold for September.

Yes some of our coldest winters have taken until christmas to get going.. with very mild wet starts and strong PVs start of the winter. Always nervous when we have cold starts to December for snow cold prospects in heart of winter, mind 08, 12,17 and 20 all had cold or quite cold starts and the following winters brought further cold in Jan and Feb. I'm not a fan of UK highs start of winter or the scuerio high as it is cold, these tend to bring frosty conditions but are fended away by the atlantic. 2006 and 2007 classic examples.

Yes similiar, though New Year period was cold. Winter 20-21 was decent for cold and snow in the north, on and off, similiar to 08-09. What tarnished it was the pervading gloom and anxiety caused by the pandemic.

Thanks for these. First air frost for Southern England, not bad coming in September rather than October. Upcoming evenings set milder thanks to milder airmass, more cloud about.

In winter this would most likely give snow to central, eastern Cumbria, unless there was a warm sector involved, but unlikely given the uppers at the moment are quite cool. We don't often experience frontal features from the NE, and in cold dry air I suspect much precipitation may be squeezed out this side of the Penines, but on occasion such systems can deliver copious snow especially to eastern Cumbria, penetrating about as far as the Keswick to Windermere. The NE coastline is not actually that far from much of eastern and central Cumbria, closer than the rest of the NW region. Its been a chilly day, a bout of heavy cold rain this evening after a cold start. Brr.

Not commenting much on the models at present, namely because it all looks very average and typical for the time of year, cooler wetter spells interspersed with milder calmer ones. Mind not been able to say very average much this year.

I've been way out all year and never check any more what I went with. Expecting to be way out again, to my surprise I don't look to be too far off at 14.9 degrees, but unlike the rest of year look to be higher.

Entering the time of year when you are not sure how best to dress so to speak. I wore my warm winter raincoat today as there was a distinct nip in the air, but un the sunshine it way too warm to wear, but under the showers it was fine.. until November its often a case of should I wear my warm rain coat or lighter one.

2012 was the last year when a sudden late Oct snow expansion west backed up the theory such events correlate with colder conditions in Europe, alas winter 12-13 was never very severe and very episodic, the real cold came late in March. I think its the rate of expansion second half of Oct the key factor, not growth in September.

Very average then, in a rather non-average year so far, warmth and dry have ruled.. so it suggests the jetstream will finally dominate things..

Yes recently we've seen a very slow PV formation in November and start of Dec, only for a switch to be turned on and in no time its on turbo charge it seems.

Quite a lengthy part of the day Ive needed electric heater on. Without, its dropping down to 15 degrees. Its probably more expensive than gas central heating..

Yes a few more spots may record their first ground frost early hours tomorrow or Wednesday. No signs of first nationwide air frost on the horizon, but many a year it takes until November. The tipping point here tends to be third week of Oct, when clear skies can easily bring one even if uppers are not especially cold, just too early now, you need relatively cold uppers.

Nothing overly mild on the way next 4 days, indeed cool for late September. My guess is 0.2 drop tomorrow, then a further 0.3-0.4 drop until 30th. A good bet a finish of 14.6 degrees.

Not if the 12z is to be believed. Yes it brings in the azores high pulling in some milder uppers, but it unusually ridges it through the UK and we then see northern blocking and low pressure over the UK on a southerly jet. GFS not renowned for showing such evolution. Could be an outlier but interesting all the same.

Unless it ridges sufficently north, the azores high lingering to our SW in October usually equates to very dull damp conditions here. Hopefully it moves into a place that brings clearer skies.

The pattern we've been in largely since Dec 2020, holds firm, shortlived unsettled spells around the weekly mark, longer more so further north in duration interspersed by lengthier settled spells upwards of 10 to 14 days, longer more so further south has been a repeat. Once again about to go into one of those unsettled spells, with settled quickly returning.. how long for we shall see, perhaps they may even out in duration as we move through Autumn, hard to sustain settled weather 2 weeks or more in Oct and Nov, probably more so than any other months, by Dec cold blocking highs can hold sway.

A chilly day, current temp 12.4 degrees.

May be one of those months with a classic downslope from start to finish with no upturns.

A chilly unsettled end to September on the cards. Definately an autumnal look to things. As we move into October models show a trend to more settled with the cool polar airstream cut off. All in all very typical conditions for the time of year. The jetstream has more oomph to it right now but much of the reason for this down to the behaviour of ex tropical storm systems, and we are far from a zonal outlook.

A mean between 10 and 11 would be quite a notable cold end to the month