damianslaw

Calandar says first day of Autumn tomorrow. Today certainly feels first true Autumnal day. We've had moderate rain all morning, very low cloud down to valley level - always makes for a miserable feel, current temp a chilly 13.8 degrees.

Ideal temp is about 19 degrees. I can cope well with 18 degrees, but below this when working and sitting still it becomes more uncomfortable, but can still live with no heating at 17 degrees, just about 16 degrees, but duvet and extra layers needed 15 degrees or below. People's tolerance levels are very dependent on factors such as age, sex, weight, health conditions, how much mobility they have.

Yes despite me bemoaning the currwnt benign conditions, it is turning into a more varied September than usual. Unusually the warmth has been associated with more cyclonic conditions. A couple of potent northerlies bringing quite cold conditions - the next one looks cold. The CET will disguise the variability.

Another wake me up when September ends type day. Its a non descript cloudy day, all just very average and dull. Tomorrow will bring first meaningful rain for upwards of 10 days.. getting used to 10 day dry spells.

Looking increasingly will end in the 14s and comfortably so.

Doesn't tell us much really for Europe. All that anomalous warmth.. mmm there has to be a trough somewhere in our vicinity.. not convinced it can be used to determine exact positioning of ridge and trough on east side atlantic and europe.

A rather lacklustre sort of day so far. Generally overcast, some brightness trying to break through. Sums up what I call the low point in the year for weather enthusiasts.. equinox on the way and usually thimgs become more and more interesting.

Models behaving in a very Autumn La Nina base state, generally equates to strong mid atlantic heights, waxing and waning, at times allowing colder and wetter incursions from the north and north west, which can then develop into a cyclonic set up, at other times ridging in to give calm settled conditions. As the autumn moves on, the propensity for colder rather than warmer to dominate increases.

My calandar says autumn starts on 23rd September - rather late it seems, usually the 21st or 22nd if basing on the equinox. Models are showing a cold northerly flow setting in apt timing.

About 4.5 degrees below the norm, quite significantly lower than mid Sept mean.

Brief blast or two of electric heater needed at times last few days. Trying not to use it but need to be comfortable working.

Yes we started from an exceptionally high benchmark. Anyone post the recent daily means.

A 1.3 degree drop in 5 days is preety impressive. Quite a cold spell for mid Sept. Based on current model output I"d say 60% change we will finish under 15 degrees, this could easily go up to about 75% by middle of next week. Going under 14 degrees would be a very tall order, a slim 10% chance. An above average almost a dead cert, an appreciably above average month 1.5 degrees or above, much less so. Still it will continue the run of above average months in 2022.Have we ever had a complete calandar year of above average months? 2014 probably has come closest.

Wouldn't rule out a finish in the 14s.. models are showing average, or a little cooler than average conditions for the foreseeable. Little in the way of notably warm tropical maritime air. We are in the midst of quite a cold spell for mid September, cool uppers and limited cloud by late Sept equates to preety chilly minima as we have recently experienced, denting the CET somewhat.

There is a thread for winter thoughts. We are in a la nina base state which typically corresponds with mid atlantic heights late Autumn i.e. November. Currently we are seeing such a signature. heights seem stuck like a stone out to our west. We have an amplified jetstream. However at this time of year ex tropical storms always add more uncertainty into the mix, but we are experiencing a very inactive season so far, and by November they are less of a commodity anyway. Back to here and now, ECM has pulled away from the northerly cyclonic outlook for later in the month. Instead it and GFS show a rather nothing picture generally a quiet outlook, with mid atlantic heights morr southerly positioned, maintaining a rather ragged weak jetstream, with the main trough anchoring into scandi keeping the UK mostly settled with weak atlantic frontal activity moving in from the NW later this week. There is an ex tropical storm set to move up east of USA seaboard and this could strengthdn atlantic heights resulting in a deeper scandi trough and another northerly down the line. Its very quiet in here past week, reflecting the state of models and statd of mood I guess. I often find mid Sept is my annual slump model watching, rarely does it inspire to comment on what are normally the most benign of times weatherwise at any point in the year. As said 'Wake me up when September ends'..

Sun is losing rapid strength as evidenced by the fact I was out walking the fells today in full sun no cream on and not even a slight hint of redness..

Cold cyclonic northerly not a synoptic synonomous with September. As you say we are seeing a very different start to Autumn than many for a long while.

As expected another 0.3 degree drop. Tomorrow should be the same at least.

Dec 2015 we didn't record one air frost.

Temp dropping to 16 degrees through the night, bordering on uncomfortable, but holding out from putting heating on until October. Just need to wear warmer clothes indoors.

Becoming used to regular 10 day intervals of dry weather this year, its been the theme of 2022, sometimes upwards of a fortnight of dry weather followed by a wetter shorter period aroudn 7 days but never especially wet. This was the theme through 2021 as well.

That is a lot of stations. Many a year had to wait well into October before such widespread air frost has occured.

Are these official stations. Shap isn't featured for instance. Grisdale at -1.6 degrees very notable. Cumbria features high.

Stunning morning. Pure arctic polar clean clear air. Fells looking superb. First ground frost. Autumn is here.

Well there you go. Shap went below -1 degrees. Many have seen a ground frost. Keswick close to air frost and currently below 2 degrees. My sensor clearly not working says 7 degrees now. Always a milestone first air frost.