damianslaw

Mellow misty mornings with the dew heavy...

The September customary high pressure spell on the way.. rare not to have a sustained spell of settled weather in the first two thirds of the month nowadays it seems. The upcoming week after tomorrow looks mostly fine. Northern parts will see a bit of weak frontal activity, and possible showers especially in the NE as we pull down cooler air from the north from mid week. By the weekend, the models all show high pressure ridging in, cutting off the cooler air. Not expecting this thread to be busy this week at all, due partly to the quiet nature of synoptics on offer, probably the best type of conditions under current circumstances.

Main feature no azores or euro high on the scene.

Yes went dark very early here combined with heavy rain, Autumn feels like it has arrived..

First evening proper definately not feeling summer. Early dusk, incessant rain... very much a Sunday eve feeling..

BBC going for 5 degrees minima by end of the week, whilst nothing too unusual for mid September, it's a clear signal we are waving good bye to summer properly.. yes we can have maxima well into the 20s in October still, but the lowering sun and less daylight combined with decaying state of nature, tells you it clearly is no longer summer, however long we may want to cling on, the same thing happens opposite end of the year, cold and snow can easily occur in April, but it is clearly Spring. The time of full change is the equinox.

Been awaiting what could be quite a notable period of rainfall. First drops have started.. much better when the rain waits until late afternoon to arrive rather than finish, especially once into September and the evenings draw in quickly.

After a notably unsettled spell, thanks to one low pressure system that stuck around for upwards of a week, the models are showing a return to the settled conditions we have very much become accustomed to this year, however, a batch of very heavy rain for northern parts to go through later Sunday and into Monday first. High pressure setting up to our west, pulling in quite chilly uppers by mid week, lots of bright, sunny conditions, possibly showers in eastern parts, misty mornings and cool evenings and nights - the other side of early autumn I guess.. by the end of the coming week and into the following week, GFS and ECM keen to pull heights east and settle over the UK, with the jetstream remaining very sluggish.

Perhaps another factor that forced the government to hand out monies to offset impending energy costs was looking at long range forecasts for winter ahead..

A marked cool down forecast by most models, as we lose the cloudy skies and also pull in cooler air from the north through the coming week, this combination will result in much chillier minima, with maxima only around average at best - the sun is weakening now.

Yes a number of spots might come close to ground frost territory at least, a surge of colder uppers by mid week followed by a high pressure from a cool source, these are ideal ingredients for frost. We shall see..

A very mild start.. but September typically is a month that cools markedly in the last 10 days.. need to see where we are by the 20th before calling whether it ends up one of the warmest. The cloudy skies are holding minima up.

This statement could have been made in the late 90s, we had a 11 year run from 97-98 to 07-08 when only short term cold spells and nothing severe happened. Up popped 08-09 the precursor to 09-10. Mind we are now at the 10 year point of a similiar run.. wouldn't be surprised for a rogue notable cold one to pop out of the bag again. Perhaps more wishful thinking..

I've commented many a time how lengthy very dry periods have historically been followee by abrupt very wet spells. Far too early to say if we are seeing such a change now, but the last week has been very wet for many, but not all. June 97, Apr 12 - good examples of sudden about turns from dry to wet.. Sept 76 also.. is this a 76 change? or a Sept 95 change, the latter was very wet but was followed by 20 months of mostly very dry! Difference is we are I would say 18 months plus into a dry period. 2021 was notably dry away from the SE.

Last time we endured a sustained cold spell upwards 2 weeks not courtesy of a SSW was late Nov - Dec 2010. Factors that contributed would be very welcomed. I think that spell comes under the umbrella off a one off extreme event. Mid Dec to mid Jan 10 probably last time we had a cold period that perhaps can't call a one off, that was attributed to the El Nino modoki I think. I am not calling off the chances of very cold weather other than from a SSW ever again, but agree the likelihood of notable cold other than from a SSW appears to be much slimmer in these warming times.

A quieter day than the last 2 or 3. Mostly dry, some clear spells but no sunshine. Had expected more rain this afternoon but only a sprinkling.

The warmth this month simply courtesy of the synoptics, an airstream from between sw and se.. lots of cloud as well, such synoptics first week of Sept will always be warm, on the back of a very warm summer even more so.. i'd be more surprised if the airstream was more westerly. As said need to look at the synoptics.. anticyclonic warm in Sept seems the killer, think 2006 and 2016.

Given the very warm.SSTs courtesy of the very warm Summer, along with a very slowly cooling continent perhaps no surprise September will turn out warm.

More a warm dry combo than warm wet combo. Wet in Sept normally associated with atlantic which unless SW sourced is not a warm source in Sept, wet cyclonic warm synoptics as we are seeing this month is interesting.. warm Septembers usually due to anticyclones and continental air which is still warm..

Today has so far started much more autumnal. Band of moderate rain set in mid morning and is clearing now.. current temp 16.5 degrees, and feels much cooler than recently. Let's see if we have a burst of a few hours of sun and warmth this afternoon which has been par for the course so far this month. The hours between 1 and 5 generally have been good, rain has for some reason stayed away from this period.

Yes after an exceptionally benign first half to the year, we have since mid July reverted to far more extreme weather, with the heat and now deluges and thunder..

I think the christmas eve 95 blizzard in the N Isles and far NE Scotland came courtesy of a polar low. That one tracked SE into the N Sea and grazed NE mainland Scotland only.

Could well be equal performance tomorrow. We are enjoying a long show it seems at present, with many intervals.

Talking about 1990, I remember day after day start of school summer holidays being glorious here, we went on a 2 week holiday from 3 August, remember a deterioration in conditions on the return.

Spring and summer 84 exceptionally dry in the Lake District. Only 1995 since drier. I recall brown grass in the local park. Only 1995 and 2018 has brought same conditions. This year we stayed deep green despite the relative dryness.