damianslaw

A rather drab dank day so far here, drizzly rain at times and mostly low cloud. Winds are picking, we had a temp of 13.5 degrees an hour or so ago, down to 12.3 degrees now.

Under the radar is the snow warning for higher parts east Scotland tomorrow, nothing too untoward for early April, but modest levels could see a lot, 200m plus. There is a tussle between cold polar air and tropical maritime air, the added warmth from the SSTs probably fuelling the pressure gradient next 24 hrs and therefore enables a deep low to form, we perhaps in other times would have had a snow event here with the low further south and less deeper. The propensity for cold NE winds to dig far into N Atlantic has been a theme of recent months, the affect though is to lead to low pressure to our SW cutting off any cold air supply.

Scuba steve Yes a fine day here so far, bright rather than sunny, but dry at least. Current temp a pleasant 11.7 degrees. Not enthused by the prospect of a strong / near gale force wind even if it is a mild one, any strong wind makes for unpleasant uncomfortable feeling.

summer blizzard Mmm not sure, spring growth appears well advanced, aided by the very mild minima and little frost more so than sunshine. Expecting many trees to burst open their leaves fully in next couple of weeks, about 2-3 weeks earlier than usual. Bluebells have been out in sheltered southern aspects for a week now.. gone is the wait until the end of April now.

Sunny and cold all the way, a wet dull windy day with a max of 14 degrees can in April feel every bit colder than a sunny dry day with little wind and a max of 9 degrees given how warm the sun strength is, by the end of the month it is as strong as in mid August. The feel of the weather varies depending on cloud amount and wind as well as temp. The coming weekend is a case in point, oh I can't wait for heavy rain, gales and no sun and a max of possibly 15 degrees! won't feel warm in the slightest.

Most Augusts pale into a humid wet haze to me, a month I never rate, far too often plagued by south west gloom and rain. 2016 springs out as the best overall. 2014 and 2017 I remember being very wet, and 2011 exceptionally dull.

Summer8906 Haven't the stats but we've had a number of thoroughly wet summers here since 2015, only 2018 and 2022 can be classed as very dry, 2021 quite dry.

WYorksWeather Dry ground conditions are an important factor. If we look at the three hot summers of 1976, 95 and 18 they came on the back of three very dry second halves to spring. Still time for an about change, but after 9 very wet months, it will take an exceptionally dry few weeks to set up such a foundation, and I'm not sensing any major drying out in said time period.

reef A predominant S/ SW flow will always produce min and max at least 2 degrees above norm, quite often 3-5 degrees, has been the case since yesteryear.

Heating on still, set the same as winter. Mild but damp/wet skies with no sun makes little difference here in April. Without the sun takes an age for house to warm up.

Cambrian Yes the models are showing a change of sorts into next week, thanks to the erasing of heights to our NW, courtesy of an unusually deep low for this stage in the year tracking north to our west pulling a feed of very mild moist air from the south, the pressure gradients promote heights building strong on the SE flank nosing into the UK. However, this does not seem to be the start of any major pattern change in context of significant dry high pressure influence, the PV is moving to the siberian side and this will leave a space for pressure rises to our NW, seems logical any azores/euro heights building through the UK in time will either sink south or more likely advect west and we pull in more westerly/north westerly airstream with weak fronts on the NE flank of mid atlantic heights. Welcome thoughts from those who have more knowledge and gleaning of likely developments deeper into spring, and sign of any significant drying out, and when might we lose these south west airstreams, April and May typically bring more northerly / easterly and anticyclonic influences, these SST values and El Nino phase seem prone to a locked in pattern it seems, and any SSW has had minimal effect.

If United Utilities declare a drought order and hosepipe bans this summer, there is something seriously wrong!

A miserable spring day. Drizzle, turned to fine rain which has turned moderate. Poor for anyone on an easter break wanting to get out and about. As said we are firmly in our 'drier season', I expect far better from April than what is in prospect, more so than any other month bar May for prolonged dry weather, it is all boding very badly..

April statistically is the driest month in the Lake District 3.4 inches at Ambleside. Very wet April's are not very common. This month though is set to start on a rather wet note. I was listening on the radio that the last 18 months have been wettest on record, but not sure about that?

Daniel* March 95 indeed brought a notable flip after a prolonged atlantic dominated spell since Summer 92..Winter 94-95 was one of the wettest on record. It ushered in the driest 24 months on record, beating 75-76. A flip to very wet quickly resumed May 97 onwards through to about winter 02-03 when we entered a fairly dry phase culminating in the very dry Nov 05 to July 06 period. Autumn 06 flipped to very wet culminating in the very wet Nov 09, then a flip to very dry, culminating in the very dry April of 2011, and a wet period ensued again...

reef What was summer 98? Transition to strong la nina..

LetItSnow! Yes having a feeling 2024 could end up in the warm and very wet category, 1998 just keeps springing to mind.. I hope not, but just not feeling this year at all.

Summers 09 and 10 were quite ok overall here, and far better than the 2 that preceded and followed them, but marked against the 03-06 summers and 13-14, summers were below par. 2009 and 2010 seems an age ago now, the weather was far more interesting than the incessant gloomy mild muck we see these days by and large.

Its turned into a continously wet end to the day here, I thought there may be a window of dry before sunset but alas a wet drab end to a poor Easter Monday. Felt like someone turned the music off at 10pm this easter weekend, just when the party getting into full swing.. 'come on you've had your little bit of fun (dry weather!) now get back to normal', or the equivalent of an extended lunch break, 'now back to work'... what we all need is a proper break!

WYorksWeather There is a first 20 and 25 degree thread, it would be appropriate to use that thread to discuss likelihood of 20 degree isotherm etc in conjunction with predicting high temperatures.

LetItSnow! In a weather rut, possibly a combo of the anomalous warm SSTs and waning El Nino. Hardly any variation from the westerly to southerly airmasses. Not sure what will shake us out of it, but a change will come, it always does, and usually when least expected!

sunny_vale London forecast 18 on Saturday, somewhere might get close to 20 degrees, but the warmth could easily be slightly further east and just miss the UK shore, the low pressure to the west is forecast to be deep and could encroach further east, the momentum is eastward rather than going north.

Hooray April is here, marking the start of the 'lighter' half of the year, and here at least the 'sunnier' half of the year, though March can give September a run for its money sunshine wise. It doesn't though, surprisingly, mark the start of the drier or warmer half of the year from a lakeland perspective, February believe it or not marks start of drier half, and we have to wait until May to enter the warmer half of the year. Taking all this into account, clearly May, June and July are the best months of the year here, each are in the warmer, sunnier, lighter and drier half of the year. August marks the start of the 'wet season'... Nov, Dec and Jan the worse if you are not of a wet, dull, dark, cold persuasion.

Commenting on high temp likelihood in April.. given we have extremely wet soil content and surfaces this year, will be hard pushed to achieve max temp on record, but who knows. All conjecture I guess. Back to the models, very unsettled in a word and not what many want given quite a few people are wanting to enjoy the outdoors this week thanks to easter school holidays.

Ratings for the Easter 4 day period as a whole, 6 out of 10..Not bad, but nothing special, though better than I was anticipating earlier on last week. Saturday probably just inched out Sunday as best day, though slightly cooler, it was sunnier. Both were dry days. Good Friday in third place, a decent morning, the heavy showers took their time to arrive, not until mid afternoon, but a thoroughly wet few hours thereafter. Today the worse of the 4, a drizzly morning, persistant moderate rain early afternoon onwards, only now showing signs of petering out, making for early getaways home for many. A cold day as well. The outlook for the foreseeable is unappealing, lots of rain and overcast skies, limited sunshine, the dreaded SW wind will prevail, oh at least it will be mild, fuelling moisture and low cloud formation. I thought we might anchor ourself on the colder side of the jet with strong heights to our NW, alas the pesky azores/euro heights are nosing their way in, locking the trough in place to our west/sw for what seems an eternity now.. can we change the record that has been on replay since late June with only limited breaks..