damianslaw

All I can say about the CET for this month is in two words sods law! After 6 months of either slightly below, near and not hugely above average months that in all earnest were marked by their absence of extremes it was just typical that January our mid winter month had to revert back to type and be ridicuously above average again, I really had hoped that January could redeem itself this year, however, alas it has dissapointed greatly. January has dissapointed for so long now (last decent wintry Jan being 1997), and in this respect I feel over the last 10 years has been the biggest let down of all the months. Next year I really will be expecting better!

Can't recall too many incidences of frost this month here in Newcastle, i think the coldest night so far (31st is looking to possibly beat it) was on the morning of the 12th? Compared to December, January has been a very poor show for frost, however, i expect February to bring a much better show of frost everywhere

The lack of frost in southern areas this month has largely been a result in the lack of polar air reaching such parts whereas scotland, northern ireland and parts of northern england have had polar air so the chances of air frost here have been greatly enhanced. The synoptics have been terrible for southern areas this month in terms of chances of air frost we have had virtually no pressure heights influencing the south. What a pathetic wintry month for south!

Getting a CET above 7 degrees this month whilst still very possible will depend very much on whether clearer skies develop as we head into next week or not, i think we will need persistant cloud cover at night for the rest of the month to deliver an above 7 degree as i don't foresee very high maxima i.e. average above 10 degrees occuring after the weekend.

A good example of one of many 'switcharounds' in the weather from extreme cold to extreme mild in the space of a few days. Extreme spells are normally attributed to unusual synoptics and therefore changes in conditions are very pronounced hence why we can jump from one extreme to another. It further shows how looking beyond a few days can be in vein as conditions can suddenly change- another lesson for us all when making long term predictions.

A good informative read thanks steve. Whilst hope in in the next 3 weeks for any sustained cold spell would it appears from your reasoning seem quite remote, there does appear to be some hope for something as we head towards the end of february (traditionally a much quieter time in terms of the atlantic and the jet, in fact late feb and early march has in recent years become the safest bet for colder wintry conditions of the winter. All in all though it is a shame that the mid winter period (in my opinion this is roughly from about the 15th jan to 15th feb) once again isn't likely to deliver anything particularly wintry and once again the accolade of period of coldest sustained weather will once again go to the honour of the 'shoulder' periods of the winter i.e. mid-late dec and/or late feb- early march (unlikely that we are going to see a period of weather in the next 3 weeks based on steves thoughts that will rival the coldish spell of 10-22 dec, but that we could see this being rivalled in late feb/early march)

Looking at the synoptical pattern likely for the rest of January I think we can preety much say with certainty that this month is highly unlikely to go down as a below average month, i had my fingers crossed that January would redeem itself in this context but alas it is turning out to be another mild one! Though I think scotland may well record a near average month. Coming on the back of last years exceptional mildness, it is a let down in my book.

Just a quick message- have to say how nice it was to see the ski tow on raise in the lake district getting some use on saturday, hopefully many more days like saturday to come

Okay i'm going to go for 3.8 degrees so below the 1971-2000 average but nothing spectacularly so, we could well get a short spell of well above average at some point again balancing out at least one cold spell similiar to how december went.

Looking like another CET ending up in the near average category but this time below average, all following on from the trend set since July of CET values being close or very close to the average with no extremes.

I made a mistake in my update yesterday as the lowest minimum temperature on night of 20/21st in Aboyne was -11.5 degrees. However, the night of 21st/22nd was 1.5 degrees colder than this in Aboyne again giving a new low of -13 degrees.

At this stage i would think the CET will probably finish somewhere near the 5 degree mark, certainly the odds on an above average CET against the 1970-2000 value are looking fairly slim.

Won't be making my bet until at least the 29th but I'm hoping it is the coldest month of the winter, february has stolen the limelight in recent years..., hoping january will redeem itself this year.

Latest update -12.5 degrees current lowest minimum recorded in Aboyne on the 20th/21st, not sure if figures got quite as low as this last night but all the same not a bad figure for this point in the season. However, I can't help but think we would have been recording quite notable low minima in the scottish highlands on recent nights had their been a snow cover.

Could inch out in the early hours of tomorrow the current minimum so far of -10.6 degrees recorded on the 17th. Going to be a close call. Can't help but think had the highlands had deep snow cover that we would be recording much lower minimums....

I'll take a west/north west polar maritime airstream for christmas day anything but a mild horrid south westerly tropical airstream. I'll be in Windermere for the christmas period so I like your suggestion of some frostiness first thing although quite quickly will clear. Having said that though, christmas is certainly looking 'unseasonal' in my book with no snow not even for the hills so nothing to look at! All in all i'm dissapointed however my head has has a 'sinking' feeling for much of the last week with my inkling that this high was always going to kill the chance of snow on the day or even christmas eve and boxing day! My thoughts are quickly turning to the new year now.

This is going to be a rather obvious statement but anyway I'll make it; until we get to within the reliable timeframe i.e. 120 hours i.e. 20th Dec which is next thursday no-one can confidently say what the weather on christmas day is most likely to bring. It nice to see people's predictions etc but any predictions at present should be treat as pure speculation still. I won't be making any predictions but my personal hope will always be a white one if not with snow then at least with frost. One thing I will say is at least the period between 11th-18th will have been seasonal so if my hope is dashed I perhaps won't be feeling quite as disheartened had we endured a almost relentless run of atlantic mild south westerlies and rain, in such circumstances I certainly would be...

I have a photo taken during the snowfall of the 6th february 1996 in Cumbria - plenty of icicles dangling from the porch roof in that photo More recently I recall seeing quite large icicles during the winter of 2005/2006 more probably in late february- these were dangling from the underside of bridges on the newcastle-sunderland rail line and this wasn't during a particularly harsh spell of weather.

I don't think anyone can write off such a CET value as you state i.e. in the 3s being recorded at this stage, even if the high does collapse into europe in time for christmas there are still 7 days to play with and it would only take a few days of polar maritime air to dent the CET down to such levels.

Ok I'll allow you that as we are still within the timescale of the 10th, anyone who posts after midnight I'm afraid I will not except any of your bets. -7.8 still the figure to beat. Hopefully this thread will not be closed during this winter. I hope to add new posts to it everytime we record a new low minimum so people can see who is in the lead so to speak. I know for some it may get irritating and if the mods want to put it somewhere else they can do but I think it will add to the interest of the forum all round. Incidentally I doubt anyway that it will get anywhere near the attention the CET threads get.

Ok then I was going to leave the roll call till tomorrow, but have decided to do it now instead as the number of posts have certainly dried up anyway here goes - all quotes word for word! Mammatus -47 Telford Lesta snow -30.1 Highlands Mam 300 -28.1 Scotland/Altnaharra Adamjones -27.7 Mufc -26.4 Snowmaiden -24.5 Norfolk Dartmoor Matt -24.3 Scotland Snow joke -23.7 Scottish mountains Rustynailer -23 Scotland Skifreak -22 Stormforce10 -21 Highlands DR Hosking -20.1 Highlands Acchos -20 Scotland Rollo -19.7 Scotland La Nina -19.4 Sundog -19.4 Highlands Damianslaw -19 Stormmad26 -19 Scotland Windswept -19 Scotland Winston -18.5 Scottish Highlands Paul Tall -18.5 Aveimore/Altnaharra Norrance -18.1 Braemar/Dalwhinnie Swfc -18 Scotland Potent Gust -18 Joneseye -18 Braemar/Altnaharra Essan -17.5 Highlands Bristol blizzard -17.1 Suffolkboy -16.7 Snowyowl -16.7 Aviemore/Altnaharra acbrixton -16 Scotland Rain rain rain -15.3 Optimus prime -15.3 Somerset squall -15.3 Shugee -14.8 Scotland Stargazer -14.8 Scottish highlands altnaharra or tummel bridge Roger T Smith -14 Scotland Bartlett Low -13.6 Scotland Persian Paladin -13 Snowman2006 -12 Highlands The Pit -12 Scotland Stephen Prudence -11 There you go. I am not going to calculate the mean average etc, but looking at the spread of ranges the majority of those who voted seem to believe something in the order of the upper teens is quite likely. I suspect many who did post are cold lovers...

Yes it will probably be the CET zone that is the coldest part of the country as we head towards thursday and friday, the CET zone will do well out of the progged set up for returning coler than average CET values. Many parts of the midlands and inland east anglia are quite likely to see some low maxima by thursday, wouldn't be surprised to see one or two stations to come in below 2 degree maxima.

Really interesting read, what stands out is that their were temporary thaws even during the very cold spell of mid to late january, it shows how the below freezing cet masks the fact that it was not a persistantly freezing month.

Just thought I should put this thread up again to remind people that the last date you can get post your bets in is Monday the 10th, I'll then do a roll call of everyones predictions. However, I must admit the thread hasn't been as popular as I first at thought it may be. Yes it is just for fun and I do realise that some members may think why did he think of it in the first place.