damianslaw

From my own judgement it was the poorest christmas since 2002, i spend every christmas in the lake district and always long for cold snowy scenes at least on the hills, this year there was not a trace of snow - just rain rain rain and grey skies and horrible mild, no frost at all- it was poor from this perspective, yes the 2 week spell preceeding it was very festive, but it never made up for the abymsal christmas spell- rant over. Anyway back to easter - prospects of snow and cold still very much in the offing

Its been a preety woeful year on the snow scene here in Newcastle. From the top of my head here are my recordings so far this year 23rd Nov - light snow showers in the morning (there was a very slight dusting in Sunderland) 8 Dec - heavy sleety wet snow for a few minutes in the centre of Newcastle 14 Dec - a very light snow grain in Sunderland I was out of the country between the 29 Dec and 5 Jan - but I know there was some snow in Newcastle on the 3rd that did settle though not much, not sure about the 2nd and 4th 21 Jan- returned from working in Sunderland to see the remains of the heavy wet snow in Newcastle about a couple of cm had settled in the afternoon. 31 Jan - a few wet snow showers in the afternoon nothing settled though 1 Feb - an hour of wet snow in Sunderland city centre that briefly settled but quickly dissapeared - the biggest dissapointment of the winter so far 2 Feb - the odd light snow shower in the morning/lunchtime slight dusting only 4 Mar - one or two light snow showers evidence of a dusting overnight. Preety rubbish for here. Most memorable snowy experience of the winter so far was whilst on the train between Newcastle and Carlisle on the morning on 12 Jan. Just as the sun was breaking we approached Haltwhistle a few minutes after the town had seen a sharp shower, a beautiful crisp 1 inch cover. Most memorable cold day so far being the 14th Dec - a raw foggy day in Sunderland City centre

Although most people's minds at present are on tomorrows storm and rightly so, I thought it would be good to start a new thread on what people think may happen weatherwise this easter, or what they hope will happen. Easter 2008 is exceptionally early this year, this fact alone would favour colder conditions relative to many previous easters. However, the period from now until mid May is usually the most unpredicatable period of the year and literally can and does bring everything. With it being so early, its a strange one as normally I would wish for pleasant mild dry sunny conditions, useful weather for getting out and about in etc..., however, due to the abymsal lack of snow we have had all winter and how useless christmas was in this respect, and also in view of my expected trends in the weather towards easter, i'm hoping that we will see some snow this easter. What do others think may happen, like to see happen? You can use this thread to discuss easter weather of the past etc, memories of easter weather in the past aswell.

The problem with the 'northerlies' we have had this year (today included) is unlike those you mentioned in the winter of 2005/06 they have just not had a long enough hold i.e. all been less than 24 hours and therefore the cold air has never had time to develop sufficiently, also they have not been true northerlies from the arctic, or been preceeded by cold surface temperatures.

Glad to see others have appreciated the 'unsualness' and how exceptional the month has been. Look North just did an overview, saying it was a very mixed month in the region. For many it was the sunniest in a long long time and a very dry month, some places saw record lows for the month and record highs for the month... It was certainly not a 'dull' month, yes very little snow, but at least it delivered alot of interest. For me it was the most memorable February since 1996, I love the snow, but I must admit the spell between the 8th-20th was quite special on a par with the specialness of last April.

Don't throw in the towel on our winters just yet, okay the trend over the last 20 years has been towards mild affairs with only brief cold snaps, but mother nature can throw anything at us at anytime it decides, their is no fast hardened rule book when it comes to the weather...especially our weather. I personally feel that a shocker will arrive on our doorstep in the next few years dispelling the myth that we can't ever get cold like we used to. We seem to be in a cycle of mild winters and warm summers at present, something will appear to disrupt this I'm sure, perhaps as some have quoted a major volacanic eruption may happen altering temporarily weather conditions... it would be interesting if anyone has any weather statistics about the effects of serious volcanic eruptions on british climate. I have read in the past that many have been followed by unusually cold conditions.

Being brought up in the Lake District and now living in the NE england I very much expect to see at least one day of snow falling during March. I regard March as having much greater odds in terms of delivering a heavy snowfall than December. It is quite true that in recent years March has delivered widespread snowfall at least to the northern half of the country (think 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006 and even last year i.e. 18-20th March saw a cold northerly period with snow showers). As others have stated perhaps it is because we tend to see the Polar Vortex shifting further south during March and combined with low SST's especially in the first part of the month, and with the arctic being at its coldest in the first part of the month, and with the extra kick from the higher sun any shower activity from a 'northerly' will more likely produce a greater risk of snow than in the earlier part of the season. Even if the short cold snap forecast for late sunday into tuesday doesn't deliver snow for me here in Newcastle, it isn't really until the middle of April when I begin to feel any odds on the potential for snow begin to diminish. For northern hilly regions March is very much a true winter month - often much more savage than December.

I know there is a thread relating to the February CET, but I thought it would be nice to have a separate thread for users to discuss their general feelings about the february just gone. I'm not sure whether people want a separate thread to discuss the winter as a whole, however, considering some people believe it officially ends today, others 21st March and others when they think chances of notable wintry conditions diminish, i expect another thread will develop soon on the winter anyhow, I personally think it has been a rather 'special' month. The highlight for me being the wonderful spell of weather between 8th and 20th. It was persistantly dry over the majority of the country with sunshine levels on some days at the maximum level they could possibly be. Many sunrises and sunsets were spectacular. It was also interesting in how the opening days brought exceptional mildness, but then from the 14th onwards we saw persistant sharp frosts giving beautiful sparkling mornings - it all felt very very continental and certainly wasn't a 'normal' spell of weather it was really quite exceptional in my opinion. Other thoughts...

Unfortunately the reason I think the thread was locked was primarily due to the fact that the weather since the cold december spell was so mild that there was no reason for it to be resurrected. I started the thread and hoped probably naively that it would be a regular thread feature through the winter - how wrong was I Just checking the guesses, so far Persian Paladin has got the figure spot on at -13 degrees, only 3 people thought it would be higher than this. March and to a much lesser degree April is capable of delivering colder mins than this, but you start to need a combination of deep snow cover and deep cold polar air to get such mins. Perfect scenario is for a potent arctic blast delivering heavy snow cover then clearing skies at nightfall under arctic high - such conditions can give very low minima even in April. Whilst the outlook shows a bit of promise it is very very unlikely to deliver anything lower than -10 degrees even in the highlands under deep snow cover, the cold air will not be cold enough.

I'll go for 5.9 degrees. How I see things panning out- First opening days - polar maritime/arctic maritime air will dominate giving increasingly colder conditions with snow showers in the north and frost to all. I'm expecting by the weekend of the 8th for heights to have developed to the north and east heradling a spell of north easterlies for the second week which will be the coldest week of the month. Further snow showers for the north and east, gradually the high will sink further south into europe as we head into the third week. I then expect the rest of the month to be generally unsettled with westerlies or cyclonic conditions never too cold but never too warm either. Not expecting easter to be anything special i.e. no snow or early spring heatwave, just average conditions for the time of year. All in all quite a 'seasonal' early spring month

Increasing confidence that much of scotland and hilly regions of northern england will see some snow cover come next Monday, the heaviest and frequent bouts of snow will come courtesy of any troughs that may embed themselves in the polar flow. Where such troughs occur it will be down to the intensity of the precipitation to give any real chance of low level snow cover from cumbria/north pennines southwards. Lapse rates will be high so certainly places above 200m for the northern half of the country look like having a fairly high chance of seeing snow cover. Every chance at this stage that the colder spell of weather for sunday-tuesday will be upgraded and prolonged.

I just want this la nina to relent and I'd be quite happy if we don't see a strong la nina for a long time. Don't like strong la nina it has wrecked our winter.

I noted in last years autumnwatch series the BBC used terminology including the 'jet stream' to help describe the reasoning behind Summer 2007 synoptics. The jet stream was shown diagramatically with its average position drawn on to show its southerly path across the country. I think it helped immensely in building up people's weather knowledge as to why the summer was such a wet and unsettled one. I look forward to such terminology being brought back into the BBC weather forecasts. Such terminology used to be common place. I note from watching a clip on youtube that much more 'detailed' terminology such as 'omega block' used to be used back in the 80's.

Another wonderful newspaper article. Sunderland looks to have been seriously hit by the 2nd March event, its been a long time since the city has seen similar conditions probably only in march 1979 and January 1987

I generally tend to expect the CET to rise cumulatively during March especially in the last week, very rarely sticks at the same level throughout.. Its the first month since July when this tends to happen. Not giving my CET estimate until middle of next week, though I will say it won't be in the series of 10 warmest March's largely due to a generally cold start

Just to further add to my last point, April 1998 delivered a marked spell of wintry weather around easter time (for some it was the snowiest perios of the winter season in what was the middle of spring!) coming on the back of another relatively snowless and mild winter, likewise April 1999 to a lesser extent. These too were strong la nina years - mmm seems to be a pattern there...

The reference relating to what occured in both 1989 and 2000 both strong la nina years which gave snowfall in april should serve as a strong reminder that snow should never be ruled out until June sets in (admittedly chances in May dwindle markedly). Those who are saying thats it if for this year in terms of snow I personally feel are being exceptionally naive. A cold scenario can develop at anytime during March and April even on the back of prolonged mildness i.e. 1989 and 2000 capable of delivering snow. We are entering the period of the year when the atlantic is traditionally at its quietest and when we see easterlies and northerlies reach their yearly maxim (late feb- through to May), expect the unexpected...

I hope we dont have a 3 year strong la nina as this would suggest another 2 winters like we have just had this year - please I couldn't take it.. 98, 99 and 00 delivered too preety poor by recent standards summers so in this respect aswell I don't want strong la nina - go away please..

I was just thinking back to this particular month and i do remember vividly the snowy day on the 23rd, in windermere we got about a foot or so of level snow it was the deepest fall of snow we had had for a long long time, i have only seen it bettered since on one occasion i.e. 6th feb 1996.

The synoptical evolution you are projecting suggest a northerly at the tail end of the month - this is a pressure pattern that has been a regular feature of recent years, at this stage i think there is a good chance of it coming off again this year, any return of the atlantic i see as being rather short and i think we will see mid atlantic ridging before the month is out

What date in the year can you confidently tell whether it is going to be a strong or weak la nina or strong or weak el nino or neutral winter...

Interesting observation that , another one is that we have seen since the mid 80s triplicates of very mild winters i.e. 1987/88, 1988/89 and 89/90 also 1997/98, 98/99 and 99/00 and quite possibly another triplicate on the way 06/07, 07/08 and 08/09? Lets hope not as i don't want to have to wait another 2 years for decent wintry weather. But in reality the weather doesn't really work on such basis.

Yes its true that the majority of the last 20 winters have not delivered sustained winter cold, but we can still get the cold spells i think back to only late feb 05 and early mar 06. Its all about synoptics. The majority of the last 20 years winters have been dominated by the influence of the azores high which seems to have migrated more north in winter and with the polar jet further north and consequently we have often remained in the warm sector so to speak. When we do get on the right side for cold we can still get the potent cold weather. I am an optimist and whilst the trend for future winters will most probably be of a continued mild variety I also expect we will still see some potent winter weather and quite possibly a winter to rival the likes of 1995/96 - whilst nothing exceptional it will sure wake us up. I think back to last year and the shock we got in late June and July and also the exceptional dry warm april, the synoptical pattern during such periods was not the norm, so why not the chance of getting not the norm synoptics in winters to come

Superb reading - these times articles are a real treat. I wish we had similiar weather reports today. That cold spell was one of the coldest spells of the last decade.

In a word no, it would be a very rare year indeed if we are not to record anymore snow this season. Even in mild winters a cold snap at some stage between now and april normally occurs, in 1989 and 1990 there was a cold snowy spell in april. Can anyone tell me when we have had such a year when there has been no snowfall at low levels in england from 2nd feb onwards... In recent years February has been the month that has delivered the snow goods and for northern parts early March has also been a time where snow has featured heavily. Northerlies and easterlies have a greater chance of occuring and sustaining themselves from now onwards particularly in late winter as the atlantic traditionally quietens down. (late feb/early march is a time when northerlies tend to feature)