damianslaw

Mmm don't like the sound of a wet southerly summer i.e. a humid one yuk yuk and more yuk

I think those wishing for further cold are firmly the cold snow lovers, April is the last month of the year when low level snow is still a realistic possibility, come May and yes it can fall but it is rare if it sticks and last away from the high ground. Until April is out those cold snow lovers will always make their voice heard - me included. April is the most unpredictable month, if can deliver and often does deliver anything

Next 7 days definately below average or just about average CET, Monday and Tuesday are looking like cold days with widespread frost at night, so expect the CET to be at quite a low level by the middle of the month, yes signs longer term for an upward trend in the CET as would be expected, but still far too early to tell whether the CET will max out anything other than just slightly above average, which is what I feel the CET can only realistically only get too.

It would be interesting to compare the switcharound this year between the 4th and 6th, I would expect it to give some of the others quoted a run for their money. Could this be done?

Can't see the CET coming in anything other than slightly above average at the most, any warm up not going to occur until the last few days. A below average CET at this early stage is very plausible, but it is very early days, much will depend on how cold next week gets, if it is an appreciably cold week, then even a warm up at the end may be too late to bring the CET up above average, may need a very warm spell to do this, but all very feasible still. All a far cry as others have stated from last year.

4th-6th April 2008 has to go down as one of the most impressive switcharounds in recent years, from almost summer warmth to mid winter cold in the space of 2 days. Yes the CET for yesterday puts the rest of winter to shame, the fact that we only recorded 1 day of lower value all winter shows how pathetic the winter was for true coldness - it also evidently shows how absent deep cold polar/arctic air has been all winter, but also how cold the arctic is at this time of year.

Personally I quite like the idea of northerlies occuring at the weekends. I do alot of walking and northerlies are the best for clear air and sparkling skies giving the best conditions for clarity up in the hills and overall visibility. Unfortunately they are associated with high lapse rates and very cold winds, meaning temperatures in the hills are usually as cold as they can be when their is a northerly. Still I love northerlies whatever the time of year - they normally mean lots of sunny spells and clear nights, even in the height of summer whilst giving colder than normal conditions they usually guarantee fine weather and very useful weather for getting out and about. I'd certainly trade a spell of northerlies above a spell of south westerlies whatever the time of year.

I note that the BBC have 5.9 degrees as the March CET for England and Wales some 0.2 degrees below the Hadley figure. Why the discrepency...

Mmmm interesting how we are about to possibly see a similiar repeat as to what we got overnight on easter sunday with a trough sinking through western parts. However, it doesn't look like snow cover will be as widespread or as deep as on that occasion. Going by the timing of the trough I would say mid and south Wales and the west midlands have a good chance of waking up to a snow cover come tomorrow morning. NW England looks marginal as the trough looks to intensify after it has passed through the region. SW England will see the snow falling come the morning. As for the rest of today, unlikely that anywhere will see any snow cover other than our highest ground in the north Pennines and N/NE/C Scotland. Tomorrow- I expect many eastern and south eastern parts of scotland along with NE England, East and North Yorkshire and later Lincolnshire and Norfolk could well get a temporary covering of snow, the deeper it will be depending on height and also it longevity will be determined by height. Monday - still a good chance for widespread snow showers and temporary coverings in the east of the country.

Its exceptionally quiet I feel in here this evening (yes I know its a friday night and all) but given the impending conditions about to be forced on the country I would have expected alot more action on the forum. Also the snow potential is co-inciding again with a weekend, so people have a much greater opportunity of enjoying it or at least experiencing it. Come on snow lovers... show us your enthusiasm.

Overall the month felt very 'average' to me, never warm but never particularly cold. I think had we had a few days with moderate or severe frost under high pressure then we could have had a chance of recording a preety decent below average CET. Granted it may have been a 'northerly' month, but apart from the opening days and also the easter break, winds were never true arctic more polar maritime/returning polar maritime, with the absence of high pressure influencing things, we never had a sustained spell of clear nights under the polar air so a spell of cold minimas which was want was needed to substantially lower the CET never took hold. What was pleasing in my own perspective was the absence of any real 'mild' weather, reassuring me that we can still get months that are marked by the absence of tumbling record maximas that we have become accustomed to in recent years.

Out of curiosity, i thought i would check the 'windchill' temperature at 900m for our mountains on Sunday and low and behold they are set to be equally coldest if not the coldest they have been all winter i.e. -18 degrees in the lake district and -28 degrees in the Cairngorms (this is at 900m, on the plateau they would be colder still). These are temperatures that certainly would put be off venturing into our high mountains this weekend, where conditions will certainly be very arctic. Wrap up extremely well if you plan to venture out in the hills. Incidentally the BBC haven't unlike at easter as far as i'm aware showed the windchill or feels like temperatures for the weekend. It will be interesting of they do so at 6.30pm, because it certainly will feel near zero in many places if not below come Sunday.

I think the risk of low level snow showers and temporary covers this Sunday is equally high as at easter - temperatures will only be marginally warmer and if anything, due to the extra strength from the sun, showers will probably be more potent and probably longer in duration. What I'm not expecting is any significant cover i.e. anything above 3 inches at low levels at least in England, though hillier districts particularly northern pennine districts, cheviot hills and north york moors could well see some significant cover. As some are suggesting the risk of snow falling looks to diminish at least for low ground by Tuesday, whilst Sunday is looking the snowiest day, I expect many eastern parts to have a fair few snow showers on Monday as the air will be just as cold as on Sunday.

A fairly 'safe' forecast by the Met office I feel, in recent years they have been quite bullish in their prediction of very warm conditions, whereas at this early stage they are erring on caution by saying a bit above average, i think last year has probably made them a lot less bullish this year when it comes to temperatures. Last year has probably influenced them a great deal, particularly with regard to their above average rainfall prediction. Overall the prognosis for the summer matches what would be expected in the this age of global warming i.e. warmer and wetter conditions. It sounds to me that we could be seeing alot of 'tropical maritime' air over the country with the azores high not really ridging much over the country but close enough to ensure that we see more of a south westerly airstream. Personally, such a scenario is not something I wish to relish as it will mean quite humid conditions and often hazy murky weather particularly in the west and on hills - not great for summer walking in our hills and mountains. But we will have to see. Personally i would like a repeat of summer 2005 which was warm generally but also not too humid. Humidity is the one thing about the summer that I dislike.

Ooh not far off again just 0.2 degrees out, since September barring January, i have been preety near and in the case of Sept and I think december spot on the mark.

Another wonderful archive clipping. Interesting how they used to call holiday resorts 'health' resorts instead, and how Nairn in Scotland was included as one of these. Out of interest do you have any clippings from the more recent cold snowy spell of April 1981?

Still sticking with the thoughts I expressed above, i.e. not till late April at the earliest.

I expect April to come in slightly above average at 8.2 degrees. I think the majority of the month will probably be quite cool with either chilly anticyclonic conditions or rainy cyclonic conditions. However, i think the end of the month could well be rather warm making up for the rather cold conditions. Not expecting any records to tumble temperature wise, however there perhaps may be a proctacted spell of night frosts if the northern blocking progged later next week embeds itself firmly, some localised low nightime minima could well occur then.

Not giving mine until the weekend, however, i expect April 2008 to be very different to the exceptional April 2007, probably much more like April 2006.

Looking like being a very 'average' value CET, and I personally feel that the 'average' figure is quite in keeping with what I feel has been a very 'average' type March, very little in the way of extremeness temperaturewise and even weatherwise, although we did have the notable gales earlier in the month and for some unusual late March snow. In many respects it has been a very traditional type March.

First time on the forum since friday and as others have said i'm quite surprised at where the CET is at present, i was thinking their would have been a marked downward trend in the last few days. It must have been the much higher minimums than anticipated. My 5.9 looks in with a good shout at this stage.

Heading off to Windermere shortly and therefore will be away from the forum until tuesday evening, so this is my final take on things for the easter weekend. Rest of today - NE Scotland most likely to see any snow cover from any showers, i expect NE England to start to see some snowflakes in showers as the day wears on, but no covering likely during daylight hours, only on higher ground. Not expecting anywhere else in Britain to see lying snow cover during daylight hours. Overnight, showers will rage on and off in NE Scotland, Borders area, NE England and into east and north yorkshire and later lincolnshire and norfolk, possibly extending into east midlands and inland east anglia. Rogue showers will filter over the pennines into eastern cumbria and east lancashire and peak district locations at times. Any of these locations could well wake up to a dusting or slight cover by tomorrow morning, more especially high ground. Saturday- Highest risk of snow cover NE England, Pennine districts, north yorkshire particularly north york moors, lincolnshire wolds and possibly norfolk. Not sure how I will fair, hoping I will see at least one or two showers during the day but not expecting any settling. SE England quite likely to see some snow showers and temporary cover in heavier bouts. Saturday Night/Sunday morning - I feel this is the period when their is the highest risk of snow cover on a widespread scale as wee see a trough push down from the north. Key factors which will determine how heavy and how much snow cover may settle will be the following - height (obviously the higher you are the greater the chance of seeing snow cover due to probable higher intensity and colder temps) further north and east (coldest temps look to be over northern and eastern england during the night, the west and south west may be too mild for snow cover). I think Windermere and much of east and central cumbria will have a good chance of snow cover come early sunday morning, could be some fantastic views of the snow covered hills during the afternoon as the sun comes out. Monday - winds will still be northerly, expect eastern districts again to have greatest chance of snow showers and snow cover, NE England, NE Scotland and east yorkshire again probably in best firing line. All in all if you live in NE England, N Yorkshire and east Pennine districts you have the best chance of seeing the heaviest of any snow and therefore deepest cover. Obviously NE Scotland has a good chance aswell.

The cold spell is recieving much media attention largely due to the three following factors - 1 - It is coinciding with a public holiday therefore there is a greater chance of it causing disruption to peoples travel plans and people, also a white easter makes a good headline 2- The SE has potential to see some snow, if it was just looking like a northern affair, the media would not be jumping on the hype as much 3- We have had such an abymsal winter wintry wise, that this could well turn out to be the most significant wintry spell of the whole season, co-inciding with the start of spring. People have probably be lulled into a false sense of security that that is it now and spring is in full bloom, had we had some proper winter weather then i'm sure the media wouldn;t be talking about it as much as people would be more prepared. I for one am not complaining the weather seems to have thought well we gave them a pathetic winter for snow, we have to give them something to distill the bitter aftertaste why not give them a white easter. Nature does have a habit of balancing itself out -pity it wasn't the start of the christmas holiday period. Anyhow i often think there is a higher chance of a snowy easter than a snowy christmas, synoptics from late march and through april favour northerly and easterly airstreams much more than at christmas. Another thing I have to say is well done to the models particularly GFS for predicting the cold spell and sticking with it, for once we have not seen downgrades nearer the timescale, yes we have yet to see how much snow if at all any does fall, but the cold theme is certainly going to happen and in this context their have been no downgrades nearer the timescale, in a season of many downgrades it does give us a bit of hope.

Wonder how the 1.7 c compares to the CET value recorded during the cold period of december and february - can't be far different i suspect.