damianslaw

Something I've picked up on watching forecasts in recent weeks is the phrase 'west is best'- this phrase really annoys me as it would appear they just say it because it rhymes.. they don't have a rhyme for the north, east or south (when they are looking the 'best'). They have used it today to describe this weekends weather, if they are to continue to do this then i think they need to come up with equivalent rhymes for the east, north and south.. more dumming down speak i think.

I'll be travelling from Newcastle to Windermere tomorrow early afternoon and am expecting to see at least one snow shower at some point on my journey, though i'll be heading in the wrong direction in terms of seeing sustained snow showers, these look like occuring later tomorrow for north east parts of England. Suspect inland parts of the north east and north yorkshire could well have a slight covering of snow by tomorrow dusk, with further coverings overnight as showers continue. Scotland particularly north east parts will also have seen quite potent snow showers during tomorrow, so these parts may well have a slight covering come this time tomorrow. Into Saturday, looks like south east scotland, north east england, north and east yorkshire, lincolnshire and later east anglia will see the heaviest of any snow showers or longer spells of snow, with temproary coverings during the day but sustained cover on high ground - deepest falls possibly somewhere like north york morrs of western dales of county durham. On a personal level, i think my best chance for seeing snow cover in Windermere will be overnight saturday and during sunday. We have a bit of height and are quite exposed to northerlies off the eastern fells, i.e. not so sheltered as some parts of inner lake district. Hoping to see some lovely winter scenes with glistening snowy tops..

Certainly a very high chance of March CET coming in below Januarys figure, but i think beating February could be a bit of a tall order, we shall see... My guess of 5.9 degrees is looking quite realistic, could well be my 4th month in the last 6 of being either bang on or just within 0.1 degree of the actual figure.

Oh dear, that was just what i was predicting on saturday i.e. daily express would have an early feature about the impending weather- however, didn't think it would make headline news, must be a very slow news day. Don't want to read it don't want to jinx things.

I'm going to say sometime during last week of April. Don't foresee any real warm weather occuring before then, i think height rises to the north will be a theme for the next few weeks, low pressure will take a more southerly track so we won't see any southerly airstream plumes.

With the charts looking very similiar to those during easter 1998, do people think we are looking at an equally snowy if not snowier easter than 1998 this year? Potential to record the coldest and snowiest easter since 1983 still very much in the air.

Nearing the mid point of the month and at this stage going by the models a good chance that the month will turn out to be at least 'average', however, it won't be until this time next week that anyone can begin to have any confidence in guessing what the actual values will be. As 2006 showed, the last week of March can deliver very mild conditions and could easily scupper chances of recording a average, below average month, however at this stage I remain optimistic that at least an average CET will be recorded. Incidentally, though not keeping a record, but having glanced at the maximum temp value for each day this month, it would appear that such figures were beaten on many a day in February, could well be that the absolute recorded maximum temp for March is lower than the 18 degree value for February.

Another superb read - I love the succintness of these reports, free of media hype- they just told things as they were.

Quite surpised at the low number of messages on this thread - particularly with the potential snowy prospects on offer this easter. If it was christmas looming this thread would be in meltdown. As I said in my opening message - with easter being so early this year, I'm inclined based on it having greater chance of delivering cold and snowy conditions than if it was in mid april, that this year I will be quite happy if it isn't a mild and sunny affair (which incidentally at this stage it is looking far from being..) Thinking back to previous easters, the last one with exceptional weather conditions for me was 1998, I think it occured fairly late (2nd week of April), but it was the coldest and snowiest I can remember in my lifetime (I think 1983 beat it, but I was only 4 so i don't remember). Going back to 1998 we saw 5 days starting i think with Good Friday on the trot with morning snow cover - this was in Windermere and each day brought heavy snow showers on and off, interspersed with bright sunshine I think maximum temperature hovered around the 5 or 6 degree mark - showing the coldness of the arctic air. Do people have other memories of easter weather past?

From my own judgement it was the poorest christmas since 2002, i spend every christmas in the lake district and always long for cold snowy scenes at least on the hills, this year there was not a trace of snow - just rain rain rain and grey skies and horrible mild, no frost at all- it was poor from this perspective, yes the 2 week spell preceeding it was very festive, but it never made up for the abymsal christmas spell- rant over. Anyway back to easter - prospects of snow and cold still very much in the offing

Its been a preety woeful year on the snow scene here in Newcastle. From the top of my head here are my recordings so far this year 23rd Nov - light snow showers in the morning (there was a very slight dusting in Sunderland) 8 Dec - heavy sleety wet snow for a few minutes in the centre of Newcastle 14 Dec - a very light snow grain in Sunderland I was out of the country between the 29 Dec and 5 Jan - but I know there was some snow in Newcastle on the 3rd that did settle though not much, not sure about the 2nd and 4th 21 Jan- returned from working in Sunderland to see the remains of the heavy wet snow in Newcastle about a couple of cm had settled in the afternoon. 31 Jan - a few wet snow showers in the afternoon nothing settled though 1 Feb - an hour of wet snow in Sunderland city centre that briefly settled but quickly dissapeared - the biggest dissapointment of the winter so far 2 Feb - the odd light snow shower in the morning/lunchtime slight dusting only 4 Mar - one or two light snow showers evidence of a dusting overnight. Preety rubbish for here. Most memorable snowy experience of the winter so far was whilst on the train between Newcastle and Carlisle on the morning on 12 Jan. Just as the sun was breaking we approached Haltwhistle a few minutes after the town had seen a sharp shower, a beautiful crisp 1 inch cover. Most memorable cold day so far being the 14th Dec - a raw foggy day in Sunderland City centre

Although most people's minds at present are on tomorrows storm and rightly so, I thought it would be good to start a new thread on what people think may happen weatherwise this easter, or what they hope will happen. Easter 2008 is exceptionally early this year, this fact alone would favour colder conditions relative to many previous easters. However, the period from now until mid May is usually the most unpredicatable period of the year and literally can and does bring everything. With it being so early, its a strange one as normally I would wish for pleasant mild dry sunny conditions, useful weather for getting out and about in etc..., however, due to the abymsal lack of snow we have had all winter and how useless christmas was in this respect, and also in view of my expected trends in the weather towards easter, i'm hoping that we will see some snow this easter. What do others think may happen, like to see happen? You can use this thread to discuss easter weather of the past etc, memories of easter weather in the past aswell.

The problem with the 'northerlies' we have had this year (today included) is unlike those you mentioned in the winter of 2005/06 they have just not had a long enough hold i.e. all been less than 24 hours and therefore the cold air has never had time to develop sufficiently, also they have not been true northerlies from the arctic, or been preceeded by cold surface temperatures.

Glad to see others have appreciated the 'unsualness' and how exceptional the month has been. Look North just did an overview, saying it was a very mixed month in the region. For many it was the sunniest in a long long time and a very dry month, some places saw record lows for the month and record highs for the month... It was certainly not a 'dull' month, yes very little snow, but at least it delivered alot of interest. For me it was the most memorable February since 1996, I love the snow, but I must admit the spell between the 8th-20th was quite special on a par with the specialness of last April.

Don't throw in the towel on our winters just yet, okay the trend over the last 20 years has been towards mild affairs with only brief cold snaps, but mother nature can throw anything at us at anytime it decides, their is no fast hardened rule book when it comes to the weather...especially our weather. I personally feel that a shocker will arrive on our doorstep in the next few years dispelling the myth that we can't ever get cold like we used to. We seem to be in a cycle of mild winters and warm summers at present, something will appear to disrupt this I'm sure, perhaps as some have quoted a major volacanic eruption may happen altering temporarily weather conditions... it would be interesting if anyone has any weather statistics about the effects of serious volcanic eruptions on british climate. I have read in the past that many have been followed by unusually cold conditions.

Being brought up in the Lake District and now living in the NE england I very much expect to see at least one day of snow falling during March. I regard March as having much greater odds in terms of delivering a heavy snowfall than December. It is quite true that in recent years March has delivered widespread snowfall at least to the northern half of the country (think 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006 and even last year i.e. 18-20th March saw a cold northerly period with snow showers). As others have stated perhaps it is because we tend to see the Polar Vortex shifting further south during March and combined with low SST's especially in the first part of the month, and with the arctic being at its coldest in the first part of the month, and with the extra kick from the higher sun any shower activity from a 'northerly' will more likely produce a greater risk of snow than in the earlier part of the season. Even if the short cold snap forecast for late sunday into tuesday doesn't deliver snow for me here in Newcastle, it isn't really until the middle of April when I begin to feel any odds on the potential for snow begin to diminish. For northern hilly regions March is very much a true winter month - often much more savage than December.

I know there is a thread relating to the February CET, but I thought it would be nice to have a separate thread for users to discuss their general feelings about the february just gone. I'm not sure whether people want a separate thread to discuss the winter as a whole, however, considering some people believe it officially ends today, others 21st March and others when they think chances of notable wintry conditions diminish, i expect another thread will develop soon on the winter anyhow, I personally think it has been a rather 'special' month. The highlight for me being the wonderful spell of weather between 8th and 20th. It was persistantly dry over the majority of the country with sunshine levels on some days at the maximum level they could possibly be. Many sunrises and sunsets were spectacular. It was also interesting in how the opening days brought exceptional mildness, but then from the 14th onwards we saw persistant sharp frosts giving beautiful sparkling mornings - it all felt very very continental and certainly wasn't a 'normal' spell of weather it was really quite exceptional in my opinion. Other thoughts...

Unfortunately the reason I think the thread was locked was primarily due to the fact that the weather since the cold december spell was so mild that there was no reason for it to be resurrected. I started the thread and hoped probably naively that it would be a regular thread feature through the winter - how wrong was I Just checking the guesses, so far Persian Paladin has got the figure spot on at -13 degrees, only 3 people thought it would be higher than this. March and to a much lesser degree April is capable of delivering colder mins than this, but you start to need a combination of deep snow cover and deep cold polar air to get such mins. Perfect scenario is for a potent arctic blast delivering heavy snow cover then clearing skies at nightfall under arctic high - such conditions can give very low minima even in April. Whilst the outlook shows a bit of promise it is very very unlikely to deliver anything lower than -10 degrees even in the highlands under deep snow cover, the cold air will not be cold enough.

I'll go for 5.9 degrees. How I see things panning out- First opening days - polar maritime/arctic maritime air will dominate giving increasingly colder conditions with snow showers in the north and frost to all. I'm expecting by the weekend of the 8th for heights to have developed to the north and east heradling a spell of north easterlies for the second week which will be the coldest week of the month. Further snow showers for the north and east, gradually the high will sink further south into europe as we head into the third week. I then expect the rest of the month to be generally unsettled with westerlies or cyclonic conditions never too cold but never too warm either. Not expecting easter to be anything special i.e. no snow or early spring heatwave, just average conditions for the time of year. All in all quite a 'seasonal' early spring month

Increasing confidence that much of scotland and hilly regions of northern england will see some snow cover come next Monday, the heaviest and frequent bouts of snow will come courtesy of any troughs that may embed themselves in the polar flow. Where such troughs occur it will be down to the intensity of the precipitation to give any real chance of low level snow cover from cumbria/north pennines southwards. Lapse rates will be high so certainly places above 200m for the northern half of the country look like having a fairly high chance of seeing snow cover. Every chance at this stage that the colder spell of weather for sunday-tuesday will be upgraded and prolonged.

I just want this la nina to relent and I'd be quite happy if we don't see a strong la nina for a long time. Don't like strong la nina it has wrecked our winter.

I noted in last years autumnwatch series the BBC used terminology including the 'jet stream' to help describe the reasoning behind Summer 2007 synoptics. The jet stream was shown diagramatically with its average position drawn on to show its southerly path across the country. I think it helped immensely in building up people's weather knowledge as to why the summer was such a wet and unsettled one. I look forward to such terminology being brought back into the BBC weather forecasts. Such terminology used to be common place. I note from watching a clip on youtube that much more 'detailed' terminology such as 'omega block' used to be used back in the 80's.

Another wonderful newspaper article. Sunderland looks to have been seriously hit by the 2nd March event, its been a long time since the city has seen similar conditions probably only in march 1979 and January 1987

I generally tend to expect the CET to rise cumulatively during March especially in the last week, very rarely sticks at the same level throughout.. Its the first month since July when this tends to happen. Not giving my CET estimate until middle of next week, though I will say it won't be in the series of 10 warmest March's largely due to a generally cold start

Just to further add to my last point, April 1998 delivered a marked spell of wintry weather around easter time (for some it was the snowiest perios of the winter season in what was the middle of spring!) coming on the back of another relatively snowless and mild winter, likewise April 1999 to a lesser extent. These too were strong la nina years - mmm seems to be a pattern there...