Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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It seems to me that the HP dominated weather is always in FI, you see lots of ramping but it always seems to not come any closer, at least it keeps gavin and frosty busy posting FI charts week in week out
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LOL just noticed gavin was posting the control run next to OP calling it ensemble instead, what a way to confuse people, the ensemble mean is better than the control with HP more northeastwards than northwestwards.
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Shocking ensemble mean gavin with high latitude blocking to our northwest, not sure why you are talking positively about that, all runs now agreeing with GFS more or less for early next week, your statement about GFS was incorrect as per usual it models the area just south of Greenland better than other models so you should never write it off like you did yesterday, lesson learn't I hope.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-300.png?12
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although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,
Climate change is here
How long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate
Wow that's colder than the June in 1816
, the year without a summer, that would I think get it into the top ten coldest June's on record or thereabouts, not expecting any recent GFS FI warm easterly runs to come off then -
There's our pool of sub 528 dam air, very unusual this far south in late May.
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And to think tomorrow could be even colder :O
Friday could be too in the southeastern quarter of the country.
We may see some isolated single figure maxs somewhere in the next few days :O
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Yes crewe and the coldest uppers haven't pushed down southwards yet, early tomorrow morning some very cold 850's for late May getting into the mix down the spine of the country, should feel bitter early tomorrow morning in that brisk northerly with cold dewpoints, will get up early for a walk, not that common down here this late be honest, should be quite refreshing
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Feels much fresher today and even with some sunny spells which is an improvement on recent days which had none whatsoever.
Temps of only 12C quite widespread in England midlands northwards, if it was June which is only 10 days away that would be absolutely shocking afternoon temps with no rainfall.
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Fantastic output from the GFS ensemble to follow the Op
Weren't you saying that last week about this week gavin
You are beginning to sound like a stuck record
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Yes the BBC have overestimated the cloud clearing yesterday afternoon and today so far as per usual, its a regular occurrence by them, its telling how quiet the mildies have been in this very disappointing gloom over the past two days with temps only 11C/12C in most parts of the midlands today.
I did predict this last week though and did say it would clear by mid week which is looking likely, definitely by Thursday it will, I bet everyone is breathing a huge sigh of relief, seen lots of people in coats today, i'm sure they cant wait for some warm sun whatever the 850's which are pretty irrelevant how strong the sun is by late May onwards.
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I am experiencing a conor day today, horrid too, roll on the northerly.
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The second half of last summer was pretty good in the south midlands and southeast, you very very rarely get awful summers throughout.
July - The weather improved in the final week. 30.0C was recorded at several locations in the SE on 24 July; with the mini-heatwave peaking at 30.7C at London St James on the 27th. It then became unsettled again at the end of the month.August - A wet but quite warm month (indeed along with 2009 the equal warmest since 2004), with winds often from the southerly quadrant. It was particularly warm in the SE. There was a mid August heatwave in the far SE, with 32.4C at Cavendish (Suffolk) on the 18th. The last night of the month was very cold, with Braemar recording -2.4C. The rainfall average was 93.5mm, 124% of the 1981-2010 reference average. It was wetter in the NW (especially Cumbria) and drier in the SE. It was quite a dull month, with 167 hours average total, being 86% of the reference mean. Lerwick saw just 90 hours.
I think the public has different perceptions of the weather to most on here, I keep hearing people in the media keep saying we had a long harsh winter, yet it was just below average, only March/eartly April were severe compared to average.
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Yeah a very cold mid May morning, temps widely below 0C in the countryside only urban areas keep temps just above 0C.
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Looks like Thursday will really give them something to moan about
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Even last summer had some very warm days esp mid august, remember walking in the countryside and it was roasting, had to pop into several pubs for refreshments, i do wonder if those wishing for the horrendous heat of July 2006 have life's of leisure and don't partake in strenuous activities .
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So disappointing the horrid SW'ly spell has ruined what could of been a classic April and combine with March to be a classic March/April combination, I know the mildies are happy but if we had a near record breaking warm September and start to October I wouldn't let my preferences get in the way of something special happening.
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Lovely day with clear blue skies and very light winds, much nicer than earlier in the week which was mostly cloudy with a strong breeze with unpleasant dewpoints, great thing about today is if you want it warm just sit in the sun but if you don't want to feel warm just sit in the shade or indoors away from the sun and it feels chilly with low dewpoints, perfect weather that I wish I could lock in
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
ECM 00Z T+240 hrs mean not showing any hint of an easterly setting up.
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Incredible month that will go down as a classic, just depressing we might have to wait another 50 years for one as cold or colder, could get used to Marches like this very easily.
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Duncan the countryside being soaked and still flooded in areas is nothing to do with the current cold spell, the very wet spells that brought severe flooding in November and late December werent cold spells but mild atlantic wet spells, maybe a thread should be opened discussing the effects the mild atlantic driven spells have had on farmers businesses, the current cold spell has made the countryside more useable with muddy ground hardening up, this is good drying weather today with a very dry continental wind and spells of sunshine.
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Exactly 0.00cm of snow in Evesham and surrounding fields now - the slushy stuff this morning quickly turned to water!
Good then it won't look out of place with all the water that naturally almost surrounds evesham , you are in the vale of evesham not sure what you expect in late March.
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Even the warmest April on record is still alot colder than the coldest July/August on record.
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Don't worry chaps Spring will arrive......
In December
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LOL evesham is in a river valley almost completely surrounded by water, try heading for the malvern hills to your west or cotswolds to your south then say it isn't cold
, the year without a summer, that would I think get it into the top ten coldest June's on record or thereabouts, not expecting any recent GFS FI warm easterly runs to come off then 
When will we hit 30C, 90F and 35C?
in Spring Weather Discussion
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Yes like summer blizzard I hope we in the west midlands don't reach 30C this summer, the past few days have been perfect(apart from today), no need for anything much warmer, feel sorry for those Londoners who have to suffer the heat especially on the tube, they are bound to reach 30C plus but believe it or not 30C is still rare in the west midlands and thank god for that