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Eugene

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    Wales, The Midlands and Southwest England - Regional Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    19°C and sunny.I've dodged all the showers, not sure how long that will last?! And, it is windier today than yesterday.

     

     

    Yeah those kind of temps before noon are already making a complete mockery of all those moaning gits on here saying how chilly/wet it will be, I think alot of places will miss any showers this week and it will be rather pleasant, summers aren't cold in the UK, September onwards is when we will see a proper atlantic cool, wet and windy spell.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Doubt a meteorologist would make that claim TBH.

    May and September belong to the 'Extended Summer'

     

    Mays average temps aren't much higher than October so I definitely wouldn't call that extended summer as snow isn't unheard of in the north just like I wouldn't call November part of the extended winter as its still too mild, September you maybe right but the long nights and potentially foggy mornings don't feel like summer to me more like early autumn.

    • Like 3

    Hot days in August

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    After mid August the chance of 30C+ in the midlands is drastically reduced, even in high summer we struggle to manage it, seems the SE London especially has its own climate compared to the rest of the UK, September maybe a summer month in the south but in central england it's definitely not a summer month to me because the days are too short especially late month which is the same day length as mid to late March and nobody in their right mind would call that summer, nights are noticeably cooler in September in the midlands, can get very cold in low lying valleys area's and days don't have that intensity of warmth that July does.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    no hot weather on models good!

     

    but I do feel a bit like the Gaz1985 of summer, but I'm not on to wind heat lovers up, can understand people liking summer, most I know do

     

     

    According to Stodge's scale we haven't had any hot weather this summer at all :rofl:

     

     

     

    Morning all Posted Image

     

    Before I look at the models, one of the problems on this Forum is the use of subjective terminology such that one man's "Hot" is another man's "Warm" and throwing terms like that around without context often causes misunderstandings.

     

    So, for me the following scale applies:

     

    20-25c: Average to Warm

    25-30c: Warm to Very Warm

    30-35c: Very Warm to Hot

    35-40c: Hot to Exceptionally Hot

    40c+: Which way is the fridge ?

     

    Back to the output and a confused and confusing picture this morning as the established pattern shifts around so let's see what the new month brings:

     

    http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-132.png?0

     

    GFS 00Z Operational for next Friday afternoon and a very shallow LP over the country so a likelihood for downpours but still warm enough. The Azores HP is in full retreat.

     

    http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?27-12

     

    ECM 00Z Operational at a similar time. Not good for sun and heat fans to be honest but storm fans could do well from that.

     

    http://modeles.meteo...em-0-132.png?00

     

    GEM 00Z - different again, winding up quite a little storm to the SW which would bring a lot of rain and possibly even gales,

     

    http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?27-07

     

    UKMO - closest to ECM at that time.

     

    All in all, looking unsettled - not cool in the south but with rain or showers never too far away. Oddly enough, I've seen comments that August can be a very wet month.

    • Like 2

    Summer 2014 thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    Temps though still very warm look like taking a dip in the coming week from current high levels with more pleasant humidity especially at night, don't think we're in for an August 1995 repeat, the high looks like establishing itself to our NE we need it to our SE to drag the proper hot air (>15C 850 hPa) our way.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well Conor you don't really expect perfect sunshine living in the west midlands all summer long do you, I think we've done brilliantly for sunny weekend's since May, the only really wet day I can remember i think was June 4th when it was cold and wet all day long, just 11C max in the Solihull area, apart from that since March its been very dry indeed, exceptionally so and almost sunny all the time since May, you really don't have much to complain about if you ask me.

    • Like 4

    Summer 2014 thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I have to say, we really are thundering through 2014 extremely quickly. We are already approaching mid-Summer (not the festival of Midsummer, but the middle day of meteorlogical Summer) and then we enter the worst season of all.

     

    To summarise the almost-first half of Summer 2014, I have to say it's been fairly uneventful but pleasant, but that's what Summer should genuinely be. June overall was decently warm and sunny, at least for my area and the first week of July, bar Friday, has been very nice indeed. As I've said before, it doesn't need to be 30C with wall to wall sunshine to make me happy, though I would certainly like that! I'm perfectly happy with low-to-mid twenties with decent sunny breaks - enough so that it actually feels summery. Cold Atlantic drizzle is not good for anything and is depressing.

     

    So overall, not a bad first half to Summer, what does the second half hold?

     

     

     

     

     

    Isn't that Winter Scott

     

     

     

    Cold Atlantic drizzle, hopefully. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

     

     

    You will be feeling warm and fuzzy but not from any cold atlantic drizzle that's for sure.

    The changing daylight hours thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    Yes Tony27 is right, we don't need 30C, even modest temps of 22C to 25C in summer feel scorching if you're out and about in very strong sunshine, was out in rural areas today and got attacked by swarms of large flies, not sure how people find the attraction in that and also overgrown footpaths so you cant go walking unless you like getting stung, pretty horrid out there in the countryside to be honest, just want cold dry conditions with no bleedin flooding in winter, only good thing about this time of year is it's dry.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    whilst i broadly agree with you, the gfs 06z is bonkers!  it has no support especially from its own anomaly chart which suggests high pressure over us, not retrogressing northwestwards.now im not saying that what the 06z depicts cannot happen, but its on its own with no support and unless any other model or run supports it, it should be read, but put on the shelf of 'improbability'.

     

     

    That is not true, there are some runs on the GFS 06Z ensembles that support GFS 06Z OP in a weeks time, I certainly wouldn't be so dismissive over such a scenario occurring especially as GEM/ECM were toying with that idea just a few days ago, with the temperamental state the models have been in lately I wouldn't be writing it off, probably wouldn't pull that much northwestwards in actual reality but still not sinking to our SE where most want it, a breakdown will come eventually, weeks on end of HP aren't common in the UK.

    • Like 1

    Summer 2014 thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    Already looking forward to the Autumn 2014 thread ;),,,,, if the past week is what's on offer this summer it can bugger off, mild, stagnant and cloudy is no good to anyone, at least autumn offers some interesting contrasts.

    • Like 2

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Another day of grey, damp skies and a sweltering 13C max here. Absolutely horrendous. At least we're not the only ones suffering, much of NW Europe is just as crap. I do hope we will get some warm, sunny days to balance this rubbish out.

     

     

    Yes and today brought more of the same but even cooler feeling, really dark now, incredible for just past 6 pm in late May, this weeks weather really makes a mockery of posts like this from last week,

     

     

    There will be some rain around at times but in any sunnier periods it should feel quite warm

     

     

    It's felt anything but warm this week.

    Wales, The Midlands and Southwest England - Regional Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just shows you how useless GFS 2M temp charts are for a few days out, was going to be 16C/17C today just a few days ago but now GFS is saying 12C which is correct, 12C in very late May is pathetic for a mild easterly, arctic northerlies deliver higher temps, looks like more easterly crap later next week on GFS 12Z just more humid and heavier rain, sick of easterlies to be honest.

    Remarkable lack of snow for parts of the UK this season.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    Yes this year and most of last year were dreadful for snowfall, still think though that Januaries and Februaries zonal weather was colder than you usually get as it never felt that mild with more PM air than TM air you usually get in zonal weather, December did feel very mild at times unlike Jan/Feb though, whats remarkable to me though was the mildness of this Spring, it's felt incredibly humid at times and the past week was hell to sleep at night, last night was so much better, Jan/Feb felt much colder than this spring that's for sure.

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