Eugene
-
Posts
6,465 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Eugene
-
-
- Popular Post
Great charts just beyond Mid month showing up on 12z GEFS. In addition to member 4 posted above, there are plenty of others that would be more than welcomed by most people reading this forum I am sure. A selection (there are more)...
gensnh-0-1-276.pnggensnh-3-1-276.pnggensnh-5-1-276.pnggensnh-8-1-276.pnggensnh-11-1-276.pnggensnh-13-1-276.pngYes, yes, a long way away, but worth watching over the coming days
Yes very interestings times ahead, late Jan onwards could get very interesting indeed.
-
13
-
-
I don't like to say this but for southern England the models look awfully poor for wintry weather, Scotland does ok at times but further south it's a shambles..according to the gefs 12z mean anyway.
Not so sure about that
I think we have to be patient, i still think February into March will deliver big time.
-
2
-
-
Tonight's GEFS 12z mean is coldest in the T+240 range, coinciding with some Atlantic ridging and an airflow from north of west, it's also a very unsettled mean with no real hint of a settled spell as such although high pressure does try to bring a fine spell for a time later in the month but unlikely to hang around for long.
Yeah so disappointing when mid to late January holds the potential for bitter cold and sunny weather.
-
1
-
-
GFS 12z op and ensembles less than inspiring for coldies with downgrades all around compared to the 00z but much too early to determine if a trend or run to run variation.
00z/12z ensemble comparison.
Hey those charts hardly show any downgrade at all, certainly not worth pointing out with still plenty of runs showing 850 hPa temps of -5C next week.
-
2
-
-
As expected, GFS op drops any HLB and delivers a Euro high instead..
http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150105/12/372/h500slp.png
Think we can write anything off for January.
Great for cold temperatures actually and a blocked setup.
-
3
-
-
Tonight's ECM 12z op run shows milder and colder airmasses trading blows but IMO the cold air, although not delivering a knockout blow, wins on points tonight with frequent polar maritime incursions, especially further north. It's a very unsettled outlook with occasionally very strong winds and heavy rain but cold enough at times for wintry showers and frosty nights, the south has the best of any fine weather between depressions.
Yeah looks like we are going to escape the worst excesses of an atlantic pattern, azores high shifts around from side to side to our south helping to pull in various airmasses but we avoid the toasty deeply sourced airmasses apart from later on friday/early saturday which is very transient.
-
2
-
-
It comes to something when Egypt, Libya, Israel, Palestine, Greece, hell, even Los Angeles and Las Vegas, have all had more snow in the past 2 years than most of England.
I though Climate change was supposed to make England colder? (well, it's supposed to do whatever weather is currently affecting it)
Well i don't find it that surprising, all those places you mention are part of huge continental landmasses, we are just a tiny island at the end of a warm gulf stream.
-
3
-
-
Its just another agonising waiting game for coldies isnt it, as usual. Both GFS's tonight for example arent great in FI. As far as I can see they are showing a very similar pattern to what happened on Boxing Day and the Atlantic high soon being pushed away over us
One set of runs though, and at those time frames its best just to enjoy the fact that they are still showing amplification. Trends
GFS 12Z OP latter stages are very encouraging indeed with a russian high and a weakening atlantic, great potential for snowfall for snow starved southerners.
-
4
-
-
Church Lawford still only -1c at 1300 with thick fog persisting at Coventry:
Yeah a lovely rural part of Warwickshire Tony with loads of great countryside walks, love it round there, not surprised it's so cold there being in a valley.
-
1
-
-
Day 6 charts
UKMO
GFS
Parallel
So the UKMO still wants this low to hit Scotland and Northern England/Ireland. The GFS misses the UK completely and the parallel is in between bringing strong winds to the Hebrides and Shetland/Orkney Isles. Mild too with temperatures hitting 14C in the north east and double figures widely. Before then, the coming 5 or so days are fairly quiet though still changeable.
Mild sector looks very transient on friday before much cooler air on Saturday on GFS 12Z OP, don't overexaggerate the coming weeks mildness, you also forgot to mention the warm sector bringing a spell of heavy rain friday.
-
2
-
-
When northern USA goes back into the freezer, at least there will be a few new live winter storm chasing videos to enjoy. Even though our own winter is pretty rubbish so far, I do think there are hints from the models for a colder second half of January with Greenland height rises, displaced Azores high and a substantial Scandinavian trough.
I don't agee at all, many more frosts so far this winter than last and some decent snow for northern UK, December only came in slightly above average mainly due to the south, midlands northwards its been pretty good so far.
-
6
-
-
13C here. Cloudy with patchy rain/drizzle.
Awful winter weather.
Yes it sure is Peter, yet we get some who say they enjoy it, not sure if they mean it or just making it up, they wouldn't like it in summer thats for sure.
Rain will clear by early morning followed by much clearer cooler conditions.
-
Erm, slight difference on the 12Z METO run. Keep looking at it, as it looks wrong
. Where on earth has this come from??http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=72&carte=1021
GFS at 72 hours
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0
Surely METO has blown a gasket (although as a rule I pay a lot of attention to METO at that range!!!!!)
It's correct upto T+36 hrs then goes faulty until T+96 hrs where it corrects itself.
-
Increasing trend on GFS 06Z ensembles of an euro trash high just to our south in 8 to 10 days time, could be a very mild dry period for southern UK.
-
1
-
-
January is when the atlantic is most active, February onwards is when the atlantic quietens down and allows prevalent northerly blocking, i'm expecting a really cold mid February to mid March period.
-
I cant wait for some more warm rain, its what i live for!! I come onto netweather every day in the hope that we can get ourselves some more rain because we just don't see enough of it!!! It is the best of weather!!
:smiliz19:
-
1
-
-
Not at all, Do you mind..
It's being discussed in the Mod with Ian F giving the guidance. That being possible snow for the Midlands North..
No potential for Essex then
-
Frost all melted by lunchtime, though the ground underneath is still frozen. Temp now racing ahead, and up to 7C already.
A toast to all fellow Midlanders for a cold and snowy 2015. Happy NY one and all!
Don't think the mildies would like that but i hope so too with late Spring and early Autumn snowfalls, a repeat of March/early April 2013 pretty please. :smiliz19:
-
1
-
-
Oh dear big disagreement between the ECM and UKMO at just T72hrs with the former taking a shallow feature across the south, the UKMO has the low much further north.
Yeah with such disagreements and a sudden pressure rise for early next week being progged by the Euro's and GFS shows how foolish it is to write off even the first half of January.
In winter the models struggle at even T+72hrs.
-
4
-
-
There are quite a few cold and stormy 6z perturbations and the mean at T+240 shows rather cold and very unsettled weather, especially for Scotland, cold enough for snow at times..so I think there is scope for wintry weather at times during the first half of January..it's not all mild by any means according to the mean. :-)
The recent post xmas day cold spell didn't interest alot on here so you may as well call it mild for your legion of fans. :w00t:
-
We have seen this before, the models showing frequent incursions of polar maritime air with wintriness even at lower levels but as we approach the T0, those incursions move further and further norts and in the end we end up with average or even mild weather. This is because the models have the tendency to overdo the extend of those incursions.
Like other posters have already said, tropospherically, there is nothing promising in the models today.
Like the mild weather we've been suffering since Boxing Day. :smiliz19:
-
4
-
-
Potential
For rain?
-
1
-
-
A striking feature of the Gfs 00z op run this morning is a distinct lack of anything truly mild, temperatures are generally below average throughout the run and decidedly on the cold side for the next five days or so. It's very noticeable how the atlantic fires up during early January but with a more southerly tracking jet, this run shows cold and stormy conditions at times through low res with a risk of wintry precipitation, however, from now until the middle of next week shows high pressure becoming centred across the south of the uk with lots of frosty conditions and an increasing risk of freezing fog, for the north west it shows a gradual transition to more unsettled, windier and less cold weather but with pm incursions later next week. So...going forward, it looks like a wintry flavour to our weather for the next few weeks in one form or another.
PS..sorry about the chart sequence being back to front, I promise I did put them in the right order on my pc. :smiliz19:
Great post, i can't see those phantom very long drawn southwesterlies either, no evidence of them in the model output at all.
Winter in one form or another continues for the foreseeable.
-
3
-
. Where on earth has this come from??
Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Sorry but that is what looks like happening, after the glorious cold, sunny and snowy March/early April 2013 i say, Bring It On.