Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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There is more than 1 possible pm shot showing before T300, And nothing 'Spring like' on the 6z run. In fact it would feel bitter at times in the wind chill.
Exactly PM and GFS 12Z further amplifies the cold flow with a very cold WNW'ly flow at times with a snow risk at night almost anywhere, no really cold max's but feeling very chilly esp under showers and once the sun goes down, tiring hearing springlike to describe near average temps, spring to me is calm sunny days with temps of 13C to 15C on a widespread scale.
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The coldest spell of winter has passed, warming trend from here on in, all very normal though.
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A beautiful spring-like morning here. It's already 4C and there's not a cloud in the sky!
Just Staggering.
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Yeah GFS has been hopeless lately, turning increasingly unsettled from thursday now across almost all model output, GFS's springlike weather for next weekend has now gone with cooler unsettled westerlies, glad to see that high just to our south be pushed southwards allowing cooler PM airmasses to dominate.
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That is the quote that describes the entire winter this year :-D
No late Dec, late Jan to mid February was dry and cold.
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You gotta laugh at GFS 18Z T+384 hrs, building a deep cold pool to our northeast and putting northern europe into the freezer just a few days before Spring starts.
Spring = The New Winter.
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Wow, 1C is cold Terminal, colder than on most days in the arctic northerly here last week, no need to look for cold on the charts, it's here now.
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Still a long wait before anything remotely interesting shows up for coldies I'm afraid.
We are still looking to the last third or more realistically last week of Feb for a potential change to a weather pattern that would support snow prospects.
The weather here has been interminably dull and monotonous, so much so any change, even rain is welcome.
This has been another desperate winter IMBY and I saw some wet snow fall once for a couple of hours despite the cooler phases supposedly favouring my region - many did better but a poor winter overall.
A proper snowy blast around the end of Feb/early March followed by a quick thaw and early Spring is the least we deserve.
Ensembles showing a weak signal for colder weather chances last week of Feb at least.
Don't agree at all, it's been a very interesting winter up until the weekend with record amount of users during the many snow events, this week is a nice calm period and pretty chilly, no major warm up on the cards with temps near average and more cold weather next week as pressure rises, this winter has been seasonal for many.
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Has been the case this winter any warm spell gets downgraded, temps into the teens been downgraded to average on Sunday and pressure builds next tuesday/wednesday on GFS 00Z.
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The calendar ticking around to 1st November should do it... This winter is dead - a shocker for the south. I felt warm in the sun today. I nearly cried.
You'll feel warm even with -15C uppers then, suns strength doesn't depend on airmass.
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The northern arm of the jet is too strong to allow a stable Scandi high. Interesting though, as its taken a trend from the 12z and pushed it a bit further here. I suspect it will be another false dawn, but nonetheless its nice to have some interest.
The 12z ensembles didn't want to know with this, so lets see if any hints in the 18z set.
The northern arm of the jet is too strong to allow a stable Scandi high. Interesting though, as its taken a trend from the 12z and pushed it a bit further here. I suspect it will be another false dawn, but nonetheless its nice to have some interest.
The 12z ensembles didn't want to know with this, so lets see if any hints in the 18z set.
Well they were showing HP domination just yesterday so they could easily switch back with a slight variation of that theme.
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Yes lets hope so karyo, i think we have to look to get the most out of poor synoptics, i hope that low on friday digs further and further SE on each run allowing a pressure rise behind, we could see a blocking high to our east.
Thats now whats showing on GFS 18Z.
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Still clear skies here and temp dropped back to -2.4C. Temp dropped almost 7C between 5pm and 6pm. We eventually maxed out at a rather staggering 10.2C after a spring-like day with blue skies and very light winds.
Sorry when almost 20.0C has been reached in mid Feb, 10C isn't staggering at all, also non standardised temp recordings are higher than official recordings esp once the day's lengthen.
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No that is the point, more often than not.
Unless we are in a locked in pattern of south westerlies or a dominant zonal pattern, charts past day 4/5/6 are always open to changes, however some people treat a more blocked pattern as they would a zonal pattern and sometimes can put to much faith in the mid term charts.
When the pattern is not a straightforward prevailing type then more scepticism needs to me placed in the mid term. The Low at the end of the week is a good example, and alas those winter is over posts are premature.
Yeah thanks, you summed it up perfectly.
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Yes,the 12z ECM can prove to be quite chilly on the surface up to 172 hours and then it has some brief cold uppers from the west.
It ends horribly mild but the charts at the 200 hour plus range don't often materialise.
Yes lets hope so karyo, i think we have to look to get the most out of poor synoptics, i hope that low on friday digs further and further SE on each run allowing a pressure rise behind, we could see a blocking high to our east.
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Well after the latest GFS debacle my confidence in anything that model shows past 5 days has hit rock bottom.
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Well easily the worst spell coming up from friday, not bad until then but the prolonged anticyclonic weather has been downgraded, turning very mild and Springlike from next weekend, those who think this winter has been bad haven't seen anything near that bad for cold.
Bluearmy why should it be an anticyclonic 10 days or so?
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Quite happy with the charts, i see ECM has moved towards an anticyclonic outlook like GFS, not sure why the gloom really, an anticyclonic pattern is long overdue and is much better than mild SW'lys, it will be quite cold under stagnant conditions, it's only February not late March.
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Some very decent cold just off the east coast at 156. A big change on the 18z vs 12z. Perhaps the earlier ECM was onto something? Let's hope so.
Hey GFS 18Z is nothing like ECM 12Z, HP with cooler air filtering in and hopefully clearing the gloom.
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I've really enjoyed this winter, hopefully more winters like this to come with just more snow cover.
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The grey dross has cleared with colder continental air moving in, clear frosty night ahead.
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T+180
HP having a lesser influence over the UK - transferring eastwards where's it going to go.
Replaced by another HP cell directly over us.
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That SE wind can be very cold at this time of year, especially as Europe will be cold.
Exactly, people acting like it's mid March next week and not mid February, when the high moves directly over us and just to east it will be very chilly with a high fog risk which can hang around all day.
Also incorrect to talk of wide diurnal temp ranges this early, it's towards the Spring Equinox in mid March when you see these wide ranges like -4C at night to 13C in the afternoon, this won't occur next week as it's too early by about at least 3 to 4 weeks.
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GFS 18Z has a quiet spell of anticyclonic weather next week with frosty nights and possible rural valley ice days under fog.
Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yep thats my mentality, avoid anything toasty, i enjoyed the past two weeks as it wasn't southerly dominated, now its turning cooler again, that high just had to go if all it was gonna do is bring warm air over us like on GFS runs late last week.