Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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A wonderful unmuggyness to this mild, really fresh feeling, turning cooler tomorrow with a night frost sunday night, March beats any summer month.
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bloody gorgeous here today :
Been bloody gorgeous all week mushy, just because it wasn't warm earlier in the week doesn't mean it wasn't gorgeous.
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Easterlies bring in alot of cloud in Spring for eastern/central areas, shocked nobody has mentioned this.
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The Summers of 1985, 1986 and 1987 were alot cooler than 2007, 2008 and 2009, we are long overdue a properly cool summer.
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Hmmm, surely cooler than average SSTs around us wouldn't herald a wet summer, perhaps a cool and dry summer?
They are so damn rare MP-R, another muggy summer i think, thats the norm nowadays, haven't had a properly cool summer since 1987.
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From looking at all the charts/Metoffice forecasts it does look awful for up here from tomorrow night onwards although with a few clear spells in between.
Middle of March currently looks sunny, dry and settled - cool across much of the UK during daytime with frosts at night.
Saturday looks a lovely Spring day for all of England though - it is always around this time of the year I get very jealous of folk living in the South East of England as they begin to see glorious Spring sunshine and pleasant temps. (Looks great for a few days from Saturday)
Having lots of snow here in Winter makes up for a little bit of my jealously though!
Get the mower and the beers out! 15 to 16 degrees is perfect early Spring weather (little warmer even better)
I can't wait for my first spell like that!
Enjoy!
Cheers
Just checked the UKMO website and for the West Midlands it says its looking rather cloudy next three days with light rain on Sunday and turning cooler with more rain pushing east on Monday, earlier in the week provided much more sunshine here.
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There would be some ice days Chris if the 6z S/E flow rang true..
Wow ice days on the 20th of March.
Same easterly flow trend on GFS 12Z FI.
Until then a mild southwesterly flow with pulses of rain pushing through and the odd ridge day, tuesdays wet weather arrives earlier on monday evening now leaving a fresher sunny tuesday before cloudy drizzly weather for Wednesday, i think a mixed picture sums it up.
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The atlantic`s influence must of effected the whole of Europe and Russia this year.
And we have an average winter or near as it,slightly above.
Yeah we got lucky.
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You can see the downgrade in the models by just reading people's lowering of expectations.
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Well fair play to you for confidence , but given the model divergence looking at Tuesday for a wet day is like saying it will be Snowing in Birmingham City Center on December 21st!
A more unsettled outlook yes, but the buts and whats and whens and hows and whys remain uncertain.....Oh yes and please tell me why you have big bold writing ,when most of us write in lower case! it feels like you are shouting!Yes the potential is there for some heavy rain next tuesday, sorry you can't see that but i can, also sorry for the caps, i posted that on my Xbox One and was having problems, my caps could have been edited instead of you pointing it out, it was no big deal.
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Models firming up on a wet tuesday now, afterwards is very uncertain.
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I agree,i do not see all this warm weather.The METO medium term has the rain word quite a few times.
Apart from Sunday there is no real warmth on offer other than in sheltered parts, out of the shade, if its not breezy.
Any high looks likely to set up to our East not slap bang on top.
Indeed and the cooler 850's from the northwest on Sunday are moving in much more swiftly than first thought on lots of ensemble runs and UKMO 12Z, GFS 12Z ensembles are all over the place too for next week, confidence must be very low for next week.
Anybody seen our friend from the Met Office?... Would love to hear his views for next week.
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Again it looks like any anticyclone over the country is pushed back again, ECM 00Z does look disappointingly cloudy after the clear blue skies of the past 3 or 4 days.
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It does seem that the brief warm spell has come out of nowhere, just as some of our cold spells did at short notice over the winter. Look at how much the METO update has changed in 48-72 hours; from talk of cold to very cold to mild to very mild!
Crazy place this UK of ours isnt it, but much fun all the same
Having said that, all the chopping and changing probably means we still havent found the final solution yet.....
Trust me we have.
However this doesn't preclude further cold spells this Spring, this anticyclonic spell could be a precursor to a cold spell.
Spring isn't one warm season unlike Summer and sees great variation in conditions.
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Would love a Spring with no 20C recorded, that would be exceptional and would be newsworthy unlike the first 20C which happens all the time in Spring.
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Seems you're in the minority Craig, most people going for middle two options not the rubbish option.
Also this winter didn't go out with a mild whimper, Feb was below average and the coldest month of the winter.
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I voted for satisfactory, wanted to vote for loved it just what i wanted but that would be lying because i want a severe winter.
7/10 from me, love winter and its long nights, great walking weather.
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Wouldn't be banking on particularly mild just yet. I suggest expectations of average and then any warmer verification will be a nice surprise. it's a funny time of year for temps. I note Atlanta predicted afternoon T2maxes this week of 21c on wed and 1c Thursday.
Voice of reason, similar looking charts in early March before have given chilly days under persistent fog, initialy it could be very mild from the SW but rather cloudy with moist atlantic air but when the high moves over us it will turn cooler esp at night, strange to see charts get praise when just 6 weeks ago they would be called dire.
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After an interesting Winter both on and off the forums it looks like a complete borefest most of March and the usual suspects ramping up the warmth when HP is still chilly and can be quite cloudy with stubborn cloud cover esp if the charts allow more of a easterly flow which is a distinct possibility.
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The way the models are going we'll be in Wintry Northwesterlies by next weekend.
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Very short lived mild snaps, it was so mild last night it felt new and different, all nights seemed to be cool to cold this winter.
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Yes a bit of a juncture at the moment with various options on the table, ECM firmly sticking with the colder continental feed later next week with a robust scandi high, whereas GFS showing a much less amplified flow flattening any build of pressure quickly..
There are changes forecast over northern hemisphere which will be more conducive to a colder continental feed, should they fall into place i.e. a weakened PV leaving its winter home of NE Canada, but it may take a bit of time to see these changes manifest in a change here.. much will depend on where energy in the forecasted split jet flow will be transferred, next week will see a further plunge of deep cold into NE USA keeping an energised Jetstream.
I'd say 50/50 chance of GFS and ECM verifying.. lots of potential for further swings in the models, easterlies are notoriously difficult to forecast, very often they can only be predicted with confidence 72-96 hrs ahead.
In the meantime topsy turvy weather, early next week will be cold especially in the north.
Yes a bit of a juncture at the moment with various options on the table, ECM firmly sticking with the colder continental feed later next week with a robust scandi high, whereas GFS showing a much less amplified flow flattening any build of pressure quickly..
There are changes forecast over northern hemisphere which will be more conducive to a colder continental feed, should they fall into place i.e. a weakened PV leaving its winter home of NE Canada, but it may take a bit of time to see these changes manifest in a change here.. much will depend on where energy in the forecasted split jet flow will be transferred, next week will see a further plunge of deep cold into NE USA keeping an energised Jetstream.
I'd say 50/50 chance of GFS and ECM verifying.. lots of potential for further swings in the models, easterlies are notoriously difficult to forecast, very often they can only be predicted with confidence 72-96 hrs ahead.
In the meantime topsy turvy weather, early next week will be cold especially in the north.
Yes a bit of a juncture at the moment with various options on the table, ECM firmly sticking with the colder continental feed later next week with a robust scandi high, whereas GFS showing a much less amplified flow flattening any build of pressure quickly..
There are changes forecast over northern hemisphere which will be more conducive to a colder continental feed, should they fall into place i.e. a weakened PV leaving its winter home of NE Canada, but it may take a bit of time to see these changes manifest in a change here.. much will depend on where energy in the forecasted split jet flow will be transferred, next week will see a further plunge of deep cold into NE USA keeping an energised Jetstream.
I'd say 50/50 chance of GFS and ECM verifying.. lots of potential for further swings in the models, easterlies are notoriously difficult to forecast, very often they can only be predicted with confidence 72-96 hrs ahead.
In the meantime topsy turvy weather, early next week will be cold especially in the north.
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Looking very interesting to say the least . But let's remeber the infamous failed easterly of dec 2012 , we get led up the garden path time and time again , agreed the teleconnections do tie up this time with the jet digging South , and WAA from the amplified low digging out the states pushing well North , the following pressure rise initially looks a good bet , it's what happens after that that's up for debate , does it sink ? Does it head east ? Does it sit over us ? Even if it heads East we need perfect orientation of the high to drag bitter cold air towards us .
I really do hope we get this , we deserve it lol . My heart says yes gonna happen , my head tells me the heart is treacherous and don't get sucked in again !
I'd rather remember the great legendary easterly of March 2013/early April 2013.
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Blizzards on the 10th into 11th on GFS 18Z.
A more unsettled outlook yes, but the buts and whats and whens and hows and whys remain uncertain.....Oh yes and please tell me why you have big bold writing ,when most of us write in lower case! it feels like you are shouting!
Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Excellent as usual Tamara, yes southeasterlies would be our best hope of pleasant sunny conditions and crisp nights, still puzzled why a respected member still insists on southeasterlies being cloudy, as you say they are most likely to bring in a chilly clear undercut though of course solar power will prevent it feeling that cold in March but I do remember some exceptional cold dewpoints on a stagnant southeasterly drift in the past in March but not sure if the continent supports that this March, still think next winter is when we'll have to wait for the next proper cold spell, just doesn't feel right to me for this Spring even with the great winter like synoptics.