Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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Yay GFS 06Z has the pattern nailed two weeks in advance, now where's that BBQ.
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5.4c to the 19th
2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
Why are you using old averages, we are in a much warmer world now and should be using the 2001 to 2014 average of 4.7C.
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cor! cannot think about Spring yet! we've only just started winter, but 2013 for me baby! snowy march cold April with snow
lol we're just past the half way stage now, still wintry weather doesn't automatically finish on March 1st so plenty of time yet for your beloved cold
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As others have mentioned the signs look promising right at the end of the month beginning of Feb. As I mentioned last night it appears we need to look N rather than E.
Just look what happens on the GEFS control from a N Hemisphere perspective. I have chosen this run because the same trend keeps emerging.
Note the PV.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012000/gensnh-0-1-192.png
Watch how we see a split PV
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012000/gensnh-0-1-228.png
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-252.png?0
Look at that cross polar flow!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-288.png?0
I realise I am always promising jam tomorrow! However at least this time im not predicting an Ely lol. Also the period of interest isn't deep F.I and at the moment is consistent in the GFSOP/GEFS control.
So at the moment the summary from me is any milder weather appears shortlived before we intially see bursts of NW,lys which could potentially be replaced by a much colder more sustained N,ly.
That chart is a thing of beauty, absolutely mouthwatering.
I dare to say maybe the russian high retreating eastwards is a blessing in disguise.
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Well back to frosty nights next monday on GFS 06Z, looks to me that sw'ly flow later on sunday/monday is going to get squeezed the closer we get.
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Not sure what stand off are you referring to, the Met has my locale (which is Southern Britain) down for heavy snow late Tue and Wednesday, or do you mean Southern England?
Charts look quite progressive this morning, especially ECM which brings the Azores/mild sw in by Friday.
No it doesn't, GFS and ECM 00Z both pop up a ridge at the weekend keeping it chilly, the warm up isn't until next Monday, a whole week away, plenty of time for changes.
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Got to say I find the charts quite underwhelming, the cold uppers are just getting mixed out with each run and any PPN coming in from the West is more than likely will lack any real intensity to try and compensate for the mixed out cold air.
I also don't think an easterly will float my boat, cold, raw, mainly dry weather does not float my boat and will the Scandi high really come into play much? I very much doubt it, models are clearly saying it will head back towards Russia and the UK will eventually be back in the milder Atlantic air.
Whilst it good people have got some snowfall, this cold period could easily be more memorable but sadly what could wrong has gone wrong but thats the weather for you.
It only started yesterday and you are already writing an Epitaph, when are you going to realise snowfall in this country is a nowcast.
Very encouraging runs this morning for a continuation of this beautiful cold spell, lovely blue skies right now.
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Bunch of pessimists, temps of -30C and lower has been reached many times in our history going back thousands of years just there was/is no weather station to record it, some of the midlands river valleys can get very cold indeed, one near me for example even on calm clear summer nights.
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Why do iPads do that?? Type a lengthy post, pop over to another tab, come back to this one to finish typing the post, it refreshes and post gone!
Anyway the gist was things looking a little rosier on the 00z suite or at least the 'downgrades' of yesterday have been halted. A much more pleasant environment on here this morning than yesterday. Yes I would say a more mobile weather is currently the favourite for this time next week but before we get there, we have plenty of fun and games. And who's to say a more continental influence isn't just around the corner thereafter?
Forecasters nightmare though when these 'sliders' come into play. Ppn types, location, intensity, duration as energy passes down. Small mesoscale systems can often develop, hardly noticeable but as they meander down in the unstable flow they can be responsible for some big surprise falls in the lucky areas in these sort of setups. So the key word is potential for all. The great thing about living where I do is that expectations are always low, so anything that occurs of the fluffy white variety is always going to be a bonus!
Also just because our hp cell currently over Northern Scandi isn't the most robust looking, it isn't necessarily a bad thing. I like them. Seen it many times before that they tend to linger longer (and often 'nose' westwards towards Iceland in time allowing continued undercutting) whilst those big strong blocks to the NE might look great, the reality is that almost always is their westerly influence stops well east of the UK and whilst it may hinder full on Atlantic mobility, what we often get is the dreaded 'no mans land scenario'. Especially around this time of year.
You must have an older iPad which only has 1GB of system memory, they are notorious for running out of memory when having many tabs open hence they refresh, iPad Air 2 fixes this issue with 2 GB of memory.
Yes i agree these strong russian highs are usually too far east, i prefer highs just to our north.
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Seeing as it's nice and early in the day, perhaps we can see the remainder of Saturday through without the hysterics expressed on the forum yesterday?
Critical points of note are simple:
1. Amplified upper pattern remains favourable for (two) trough disruption(s) early-mid next week
2. Scope of how and where these may occur will NOT be correctly resolved in ANY model at this lead time
3. Ergo, any over-analysis is pointless at this lead time given great uncertainty and variance/volatility in model handling
4. Likely erratic and eventually weakening E'ward progress of occlusion into cold air Tues means uncertainty on areal spread of snow: GFS PPN phase charts to be viewed with due caution.
5. Risk of rain onto frozen surfaces even where no snow. Varied wintry hazards look inevitable but no compelling evidence for a 'nationwide snow event' in strict defined sense. However, threat of disruptive snow for some areas (starting in parts of NI initially under frontal mass ascent; then W Scotland and Wales) is quite obvious, although no regional detail is reliable for now.
6. The potential for some easterly flow later into the week could not be *wholly* discounted yesterday (despite some claiming so); nor again in this morning's output, albeit still considered a lower probability outcome (ca. 40% support for some easterly component in 00z MOGREPS-G)
7. Attempt to resume westerly mobility later in the week (Weds-Thurs, powered by strong jet) may threaten further snow with second trough disruption. Importantly, the transition/timing and evolution of this switch will inevitably be messy and poorly resolved in all models currently.
8. Further swings in output are a given, as models struggle with upstream driving developments in W Atlantic/US.
9. Thus, can we desist from further forum freak-outs today...! :-)
One of the best posts on here ever, lets get this upto 100+ likes folks.
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Worst case scenario a week long cold spell starting today and the past week has been mostly chilly too, mild in FI, lets hope it stays there, i wouldn't be taking mild charts too seriously.
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GFS playing around with various scenarios I think this evening - BBC and Met Office certainly not buying it, and I would give it very little credence.. Yes an occluded front will occur and pivot and slide SE.
Yes some posts are way OTT tonight, my disappointment is due to the longevity of the cold spell, we still have at least a 5 day cold spell to look forward to, if you are looking for cold just go out your front door now.
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Here are some stunnign charts from 18z ensembles.
So after a cracking Op it produces worse set of ensembles for prolonged cold for some time.
Anything could happen TBH.
lol could you actually show us some stunning charts please.
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Much much better run thus far. You can see the difference between this and the slop served up earlier. Question is can this be maintained on the 0z GFS and head this way in the 0z ECM?
Yes but still not perfect, those damn shortwaves just to the north of the high will prevent any serious cold pool being pulled into northern Europe, i'm still desperate for an early Feb 1991 repeat
I see many more ups and downs in the days ahead but hopefully it remains cold for as long as possible and eventually we get the holy grail but its very tough nowadays to achieve in these warmer times.
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif - Blocking just to our NE and in the mid atlantic looking much better on this run, cold should last longer than 12Z.
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Russian high further west with stronger ridge over Scandinavia on this run.
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JMA comfortably has the best 192 chart of the models but it also has the low deeper and further West meaning snow would me more marginal and further NE from the slider.
Almost perfect run for Northern England first and then the SouthEast.
So it gets my vote.
We get the weather we vote for right?
That's a massive improvement on last nights JMA run but it's JMA afterall, up and down like a YoYo
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I know I keep posting - but the depth of the surface cold pool by day 5 is superb-
the uppers a mere -7c
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECU0-120.GIF?15-0
However I would suggest that the maxima even for London on Tues would be close to zero, obviously further North sub zero, maybe even just -10 Maxima in the central belt of Scotland-
I keep banging this drum - Its coming!!!!
ECM 144- deep cold for the UK & snow in the sw
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECU1-144.GIF?15-0
Isn't that Barry95's catchphrase
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Long time Steve, yeah there is a lovely shape to the upper high feature, also being re-enforced from the west by the heights increasing into Greenland. Just need to shift that upper low near the south of England far enough to the SE to really develop a good E/NE flow.
Should have at least another 7 days of cold from 168hrs onwards on the 18z.
Yes a better run than 12Z for our long term prospects but i prefer 12Z short to medium term for middle of next week as 18Z looks more marginal to me with more of a wintry mix, btw nice to see you back Kold, haven't seen you posting in a while.
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Fantastic ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight for all the coldies, it's trending progressively colder with an increasing risk of snow and severe frosts, it's every bit as good as the 0z and last night's 12z, perhaps even better..turning much colder and more wintry from the weekend onwards..reasons to be cheerful, many :-)
Yes ECM 12Z Mean at T+144 hrs shows a shallower low like I mentioned earlier and further east over England keeping all but Cornwall/Devon as is to be expected in cold enough air for snowfall, nearer to GFS 12Z at that timeframe than ECM 12Z OP was.
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JMA 12Z shows the worst case scenario tonight of a quickly collapsing mid atlantic ridge and mild atlantic westerlies, looks plausible too i'm afraid.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1681.gif
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People criticising others over analysing snow accumulation charts yet are doing the same with ECM 12Z T+144 hrs chart, i'm going with NAVGEM and GFS with a slacker feature and cold air over most of the UK.
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Maybe, but everything is way to slack allowing milder air to intermix...
Can't see all the excitement personally! Would rather have a siberian high pushing deep cold air in from the north east
Well for snow fans next week is like the Nirvana of setups on GFS 12Z.
Spring 2015
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I'm sorry Crewe but that is nonsense, firstly mid Feb can see some of the coldest weather of the year, secondly i'm much further south than you and there was lying snow to low ground in my area late March 2013 which hung around until April 5th, remember walking in northamptonshire and it felt bitter in northeasterly winds, felt like January, also another March in the late 00's had some bitter days in a cold Southeasterly flow in unbroken sunshine, ponds were frozen all day, the dewpoints were bitter.