Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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What drives me mad is all these armchair critics who don't have the guts to contribute anything substantial to an internet forum and sit back criticising such minor issues, really does my head in.
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Fantastic GFS 00Z upto T+240 hrs, laughable how once we enter low res it completely goes pear shape, that run would definately lead to continental blocking, i think we are looking at a two week cold spell maybe longer.
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I think the charts we are are seeing are coming at the right time, next week is February and February traditionally is when the jet quietens down and anticyclones become more dominant, if it was December/most of January its more likely the jet would smash through, it definately feels to me we are entering a quieter drier phase, February on average is one of the driest months of the year.
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Forgive me for asking.. But is that good or bad?
It's fan-friggintastic.
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UKMO not bad at all - reasonable amplification
Yes UKMO 12Z T+144hrs better than GFS 12Z T+144hrs tonight, UKMO doesn't develop the shortwave near greenland like GFS does, lengthier cold spell likely on UKMO.
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Wow, you would never realise the most exciting weather of the winter was upon us. No posts in 3 hours! Although I suppose there is a big gap between the GFS 6z and the 12z model runs. Cold Wednesday and Thursday, slightly less cold Friday and early Saturday then colder again from late Saturday onwards seems to be the summary of the models. Only debate is how long the second blast lasts.
Its most likely that next Wednesday/Thursday the high will topple in giving a couple of sunny, cold days then the Atlantic moving over the top and sinking the high back to the Azores but the most likely scenarios don't always happen and I certainly hope it doesn't in this case. Having said that a near 7 day cold spell isn't that bad, especially compared with last year, having just come off the back of a cold spell which lasted just under a week
People are burn't out, they are looking forward to Spring/Summer now.
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I agree this winter is better than last winter, but then again could it have been worse? We have seen 2 marginal events this winter, one which saw snow falling for about an hour before turning back to rain. if that is the best a UK winter can produce then we might as well live in the tropics.
Yeah i think you should think about moving to another climate, This is winter in the UK, northerners seeing more snow than the south, we've seen a decent amount of frosts this winter, seems you'll never be happy with our temperate winters, if they were cold most years as you want don't you think average temps would reflect this.
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No sign of Spring at all here, December and January have been close to average, if those CET's were recorded in April/May they would be the coldest on record, 7C isn't Spring in the UK, it's the winter average max.
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Only just below average really. looks dry for most of England away from the coasts. 3s and 4s for my neck of the woods
Much colder at night, remember maxs are very short lived in the winter, it will feel very cold out of the sun.
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JMA is cannon fodder, don't see too much mention of it when its showing cold but the three big aren't, not sure why its even being brought up, it usually isn't.
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Ignore GEM 850's there is a known fault whereby they are modelled much higher than they should be.
Actually GEM is really a bit of cannon fodder model these days.
GFS short ensembles SE England
NW England
Ignore that the Op is higher than the mean above - it always is for some reason.
Yes GEM is a temperamental model, this morning it was the best model for cold, I wonder if Summer Sun pointed this out, not sure wasn't here.
GFS 12Z is great almost throughout for me finishing with anticylonic weather, don't care about temps just want a prolonged dry period.
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Well the centre of the Azores high was mainly over Spain for the last two years and I lived their throughout and was the most boring (no) weather ever.
Since Xmas the centre has been very much on a mid Atlantic cruise-well displaced and responsible for the mild/cold repeats that we have had this month and has been quite good for many.
As many of the experts have said, its the lack of amplified patterns moving along the high from USA that have prevented a higher Azores ridge and a blocking feature.
I agree it could be a hundred miles or so further west ideally but without amplification it could well return to the Azores and give repetitive maritime s.westerlies like last year. Any further west and another high would just fill its place from the east. So it's not perfect, but it's the best place imho and very similar to 2010 and has already provided a fascinating January so far.
Great post, Good to see someone happy with this winter, December wasn't bad overall, no persistent bartlett high this winter either.
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Looks like ptrb 12 is going cobra this time. Surely the best chart for months this one!!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=228&mode=0&carte=0
Greenland high, Italian low, Cold uppers, etc etc
Very much an outlier solution so early on in the run though.
No there are several runs similar but yes not got major support on the GFS ensembles, wonder if the dreaded MLB high just centred to our west could occur around the 4th onwards.
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Any chance us cold weather fans could have our own thread dedicated to cold temperature discussion away from snow fans endlessly arguing over marginal uppers, lowers or whatever you want to call it.
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At 210 and we're still in a cold northerly. I would happily take either UKMO or GFS given what we've had to endure so far this and last winter. They're both showing a significant cold spell with chances for all for some of the white stuff! Maybe not the best for my location, but some places could do very well.
You'll be enduring more cold and mainly dry weather in Chelmsford.
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Oh My, can't link this chart atm but go and check GFS 12Z T+162 hrs chart, just wonderfully slack in a light northerly flow, would give harsh night frost, fantastic chart for frost fans.
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Been too busy to post recently but watching with interest. Just 4 days ago, it looked like nothing special till February but now snow could be back on the cards in just 3 days time. You just can't take your eyes off the charts can you!
Just to add one extra variable in - the time of year. I've seen one snowfall in Hampshire from this kind of set-up - about 20 years ago - in the last week of January. Winter cold generally seems to peak over the next two weeks (last of Jan, first of Feb). This factor can tip the balance in a marginal between rain and snow. I must say, I feel there's going to be flakes for all this week.
Beyond that, I feel the ECM is best case scenario for the northerly - holding a northerly with that profile looks precarious, downgrades likely unless a north or eastern block somehow emerges - that's not to say I don't think there will be another 3/4 day wintery window from Saturday onwards.
Yeah it seems this winter has had plenty of interest with short milder snaps interspersed with regular cold spells, many times people have written off cold on the charts yet before you know it another cold spell is progged.
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Yes the charts are promising but away from the scottish highlands and north sea facing coasts it will be essentially dry.
This could very well be a 2/3 day northerly toppler, which I'm pretty sure is about to come on this run so caution will be very well advised at this stage.
Yeah thats how i see it, not sure where people are getting very wet for the south from, thats not what you get from Arctic Northerlies, most people will get beautifully crisp clear blue skies.
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So the Models/Charst are showing another severe cold spell coming...as the last 2 went from perfect to pitiful...for most of us..a few days beforehand, i'll wait until they arive before i am convinced this time...
In North America yes, here no, no wonder they let you down when you have such high expectations.
Models show modified Arctic Maritime Northerlies, max temps for most of england will be 3C to 6C and 0C to -2C mins maybe lower if winds die down.
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Well i'm hoping that wind dies down early Feb, when it goes slack temps are much lower at night, friday started off wonderfully cold with no wind.
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The 0z ECM ensembles for London
Not bad but the cold temperatures still 5-6 days away and even then it's unlikely to be the 'brutal cold' that we all want. Northerlies look great on the charts but deliver rarely away from costs and high ground in the North. Loved to be proved wrong though...
Yes as ever we need cold with a more continental influence, Arctic maritime will deliver lovely crisp weather but mainly dry, need atlantic approach after initial cold for lasting snow cover like early to mid Feb 2012.
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The first ten to twelve days of February 2012 were excellent here. Several ice days and about eight to nine hours of very heavy snowfall on the 4-5 February that lasted for over a week.
Yeah excellent down here too, excellent wintry conditions in south warwickshire/north gloucestershire border.
Question open to anyone, February proper cold spells for southern UK are usually continental whilst December's are more Arctic from the north for the midlands like late Dec 1995, can you name any cold spells in February from the north like late Dec 1995 that gave sub zero maxs with snowcover for the midlands?
Bet they harder to find than mid December to mid January.
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Lots of ramping this morning...but caution ! Lots of blues and purples shown however not a particularly cold source. No big freeze as yet.
There will be no big freeze this winter, the depth of cold needed over central europe is not there, still plenty of interest for cold weather fans, there are many of us that enjoy winter and any kind of cold weather not just the very rare and very elusive "Big Freeze".
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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Is that the "Murr Sausage" i see at T+210hrs.