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Eugene

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    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    12z GFS reverts back to a high slap bang over the UK.

     

     

    Yeah back to what i was saying yesterday, some moderation of the deep cold nights of the week ahead likely but still on the chilly side, any breakdown to mild SW'lys seems an eternity away. :)

     

    Can't believe the doom, we are in a blocked setup and the high could retrogress, there is no sign of a wet mild zonal setup which we should all be thankful for.

    Spring 2015

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It was frustrating spring and summer for this area last year come to mention it. Due to those neverending hideous easterlies. I guess i was speaking for the country as a whole.

     

    I recall as a kid flicking through ceefax to page 418 (i think) to see when the first sun index of 2 appeared!

     

    Oh my, i wouldn't dare tell the world something that embarassing about my childhood. :D

    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GFS 06Z run does not topple the high fully into the UK but I fail too see why there is so much excitment over a cold raw dry easterly wind, you won't be getting any frost, and no doubt stratuscumulus cloud would eventually topple in leading to horrible cold grey days, especially for the South. Yet when you see a true polar WNW'ly hitting Northern areas, some don't describe it as a good run because its only affecting Scotland... I know which I prefer but each to their own. 

     

    For me the ECM is much better for potential, much rather see some sort of attempt of retrogression to Greenland so we get the potential for a PROPER Northerly.

     

     

    Like the one today. :D

     

    Cyclonic northerlies don't deliver,  too much moderation, as it turns more anticyclonic northerly like tonight onwards we can have some lovely hard frosts. :)

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    This cold spell looks far from over in my eye. I think he models may have been overdoing the low heights in fantasy land and the trend looks ever more evident that heights are set to increase over Scandi, with a more potent easterly developing.

    Also underneath the High that sets up shop over us will see some very cold surface temps too.

    Anyone looking for a mild breakdown will struggle in this latest 12z run that's for sure !!

    EES91

     

     

    Spot on though the atlantic never gets a look in pushed back really easily, GFS 12Z finishes off very blocked with a large area of HP stretching from eastern/central europe to greenland.

     

    Also the last decade is like a drop in the ocean, historically February is a dry month with a higher frequency of anticyclones and quiet weather than any other winter month.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I much prefer dry frosty weather to mild wet and windy but overall it looks like any high will be at too lower latitude to get a strong Easterly so overall I would prefer to take my chances with the Euros and have the high pull back West and trough push down from the North into Europe as conditions will be favourable by that time for Greenland blocking.

     

     

    Yeah me too, i agree on this run but chiniomaniac said expect the high to be further north when we get there, thursday onwards still has time for adjustments,

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Absolutely, not forgetting this cold snap suddenly appeared from virtually nowhere and originally looked like a 'toppler' according to a lot of members. It's already at day 3 or 4 and we have another week or so of frosty weather (if not widespread snow) - which will leave us at a 12 day or so cold spell. Pretty good for any winters and to be honest, we'd only need another spell of snow in that time to match the winters of a few years back, which were colder but relatively snowless for my part of the Midlands. 

     

    Winter doesn't show it's head until Mid-Jan onwards these days (or so it seems) and since then, this winter has been good - with a good chance of snow events to chase and some good synoptics. A much better winter this year, very little mild and not that much in the way of low pressure to be honest - a decent Feb and we will be looking at a 'reasonable' winter overall. 

     

     

    Fantastic post, would sticky it in it's own thread if i was a mod, makes a change from the needless negativety we so often see, ensembles offer plenty of great solutions.

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GWO plots continue to suggest 'lets go around again' in the further outlook. This time around we have goodies in the mix compared to mid January when a return to westerlies was suggested... but suspicions were confirmed and it didn't last beyond a number of days....and today is the 'all change day' 

     

    Much as suggested in recent posts that should make a difference to our fortunes as we head through February - and model trends have been bearing this out.

     

    Currently we are headed through that Atlantic amplified GWO Phases 1/2 towards flatter phase 3, but the attempted regrouping of the vortex has to recover from its displaced wall just to our east which looks set to lock in cold right over the next 10 days.

     

    Add an ever growing colder Siberian High into the mix, rejuvenated by recent EAMT then the continuing predicted fast orbit of the GWO through flatter phases 3/4 has a harder task cut out for re-introducing milder westerlies.

     

    I spoke recently about increasing torques having an effect on the reduced strength of the Azores High. Well this is now well advertised amongst the models and although it is still a player, its role now is restricted to playing a westward displaced amplifier from upstream. The Pacific pattern is locked retrogressively rather than sending an angry jet stream down towards us

     

    That GWO orbit back to Phases 1/2 looks set to occur in the 10 to 15 day period and the holding cold trough to our north and east should have done its work by then. Result? Amplified northerlies leading to mid latitude cold High which has some chance at least of leading to a Scandinavian easterly to share some of the snow spoils around further still - before the next retrogression upstream sucks the whole lot westwards ...and we look north once again.

     

    Next amplification has hallmarks to be sharper still - shortening wavelengths doing their trick, and who knows what that Siberian High might be up to by then...

     

    So, same story as before. February features increasing amplification and the odds are gradually getting better and better on a proper cold block mid month but more especially thereafter :)

     

    http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

     

     

    Lasting into March Tamara?

     

    Would love a proper cold block in March. :)

    • Like 3
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