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Eugene

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Posts posted by Eugene

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well it seems the models have enticed some of the big boys to return! Il take that as a plus!

     

    Ive been posting the promising charts all week and flying the cold flag and its nice to see it gathering some support. Todays runs have certainly upped the stakes, with crucial developments now at T144 so not the deep dark realms of FI so we should know the final outcome soon.

     

    The very nice charts have already been posted this evening so ill not clutter the thread by doing the same.

     

    :cold:

     

     

    Yes you deserve credit for that amongst great adversity.

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A lot of interest in this evening's charts, both ECM and GFS continue to suggest a significant change through next week as we loose the influence of the atlantic and exchange it for high pressure building in quickly from the south and for the first time all winter heights are shown to ridge sufficiently north to enable an easterly influence.

     

    As others have commented, too early to call how far north such heights will build, but the Jetstream profile supports ridging to the north - a split jet is shown with greatest amount of energy in the southern arm, hence no reason to call off chances of an easterly developing.

     

    In the meantime lots of topsy turvy weather, a brief mild blip now, cooler tomorrow and Friday, another brief milder blip Saturday more so in the south, then chilly Sunday-Tuesday with snow to low levels in the north.

     

    Early March can be as severe as anything Dec, Jan and Feb can produce in terms of wintry cold weather, especially thanks to the fact the arctic is colder now than at any stage of the year.

     

     

    Great post, Yeah i was pointing this out just a few days ago to Cheese/Mushy, also that Sea Temperatures around us are at their coldest and that early March has a higher likelihood of snowfall than early December.

     

    I think the new trend starting in 2013 is a cold start to Spring and that Springs will be entering a cold phase in the next 20 years.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    There is a major difference, Eugene - spring-like warmth is possible now, in February. Wintry weather isn't a possibility in August for us, and isn't for virtually everywhere in the UK unless you live on Ben Nevis.

     

    We might get a frost in September but that's it. In March, summery weather can occur with temperatures in the low twenties, as in 2012.

     

    By the time October rolls around, my interest in snow and cold increases, but snow isn't a real possibility until late November usually, and even December isn't a sure thing for

    snow. Simple fact of the matter - pleasant warm weather is far more likely than snow.

     

     

    Like i said wintry weather is still possible in March and tonights runs back that up, it's ironic both you and Mushy were giving me grief over daring to mention Winter isn't over and just a few days later the cold crew are back.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    All these high pressure charts seem to be stuck out at 200 hours. We were supposed to be seeing high pressure for the start of March....this weekend....it's been postponed!. For days the GFS has been playing around with HLB at the end of the runs .....it's not moving forward in time!

     

    If the pattern over the US doesn't shift, what's the betting that the weather will still be westerly and unsettled two weeks from now?

     

    Yep spot on and after looking at the 12Z ensembles next mid weeks ridge is flattened by more atlantic lows.

     

    That direct westerly early next week is very impressive with 850's just as cold as a direct northerly, very rare indeed, wonder what repurcussions the deep cold weather over that side of the atlantic has on our weather, more wet and windy weather no doubt.

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes plenty more potent Pm shot's showing on this evenings runs, With Low after Low swinging in down from the N/W on a strong Jet Stream. So remaining cool/cold at times and unsettled, With plenty of Wintry potential continuing at elevation and even down to low levels at times as evaporative cooling comes into play, A very traditional set-up for the UK.. Winter continues to 'March' on.

     

    hgt300.pngh850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

     

     

    Wow, Thats a very cold at the 850 level direct westerly flow on March 3rd, yes Winter looks like Marching well into March. :)

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    You either dont read my posts or have a short memory. Im no seeker nor fan of heat by late august. I likes me sun and heat june - early august. By the 23rd it can be as autumnal as it likes, but not too wet! By late august it IS often pretty autumnal, summer scented flowers have finished, leaves are getting tatty and the swifts have gone along with birdsong.

    So YES.... Its a deal from me! :p

     

    Yeah i don't usually read your posts ;), disagree about late August being Autumnal, Summer lasts well into September nowadays and even October, look at Oct  31st last year, Spring is much better for those lovely PM Northwesterlies, after mid May it's a very long wait for them hence why i'm so keen to see cold weather as long as possible.

    • Like 5

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    There is a major difference, Eugene - spring-like warmth is possible now, in February. Wintry weather isn't a possibility in August for us, and isn't for virtually everywhere in the UK unless you live on Ben Nevis.

     

    We might get a frost in September but that's it. In March, summery weather can occur with temperatures in the low twenties, as in 2012.

     

    By the time October rolls around, my interest in snow and cold increases, but snow isn't a real possibility until late November usually, and even December isn't a sure thing for snow. Simple fact of the matter - pleasant warm weather is far more likely than snow.

     

     

    Who mentioned wintry weather in August, wow no chance of wintry weather then unlike now. ;)

     

    Summer like weather is not at all common in March, you mention exceptional March weather so i will too, March 2013.

     

    My point still stands its still winter and the chance of wintry weather does not all of a sudden finish on March 1st just like Summer doesn't on Sept 1st, early Sept can be very hot, 35C has been recorded then.

    • Like 5

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    seriously?...

     

    and meteorologically its spring on march 1st as you well know. we all know we might get some late cold in march, or even april, so what?

    and id suggest its the coldies who have given up, and have forgotten about winter themselves... where are they? sm, ns, teits, wib, etc they know its now highly unlikely that there will be a proper cold/snowy spell...heck even frosty is spring-ramping! lol.

    so i dont think gibby is 'forgetting' you, not that he or anyone has some sort of duty to predict for you, hes just being realistic and going with the season, most of us now are looking for sunnier, warmer weather.

     

     

    Ok by August 23rd, no more mention of summer, only Autumn discussion ok, Deal Mushy?.... LOL, yeah right.

    • Like 3

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    But it is rare indeed and March 2013 was a once in 50 years event so a long way to go for that to be repeated. However statistics aside, why will there be one this March? There is no sign of an SSW, the experts (Dr Cohen & others) suggest no Northern Blocking, and the models currently say no. If we did a post and every time we mentioned what could happen it would be a bit daft! Looks like the best we are going to get, wintry wise is a wet and cool zonal flow and TBH for the SE that is as bad as it could be in March for us.

    The GFS op D5-7 looking like a ridge will keep the south dry: attachicon.gifgfs-0-120.png attachicon.gifgfs-0-168 (2).png

    Then from D8-10 again HP moving back in: attachicon.gifgfs-0-216 (1).png

    Looking at the GEM and although that has backtracked on the Siberian High stretching west it remains very zonal:

    D8: attachicon.gifgem-0-198.png

    Wish I could trust the GFS but if it right then ECM has made a complete and utter fail, and the verification stats suggest otherwise.

     

    Hey i didn't mention the whole month of March, i said early March, a cold and snowy spell then isn't as rare as you think, with the seas surrounding us at their coldest and Arctic airmasses at their coldest it's a very good time for cold, infact snowfall is more likely than early December.

     

    My point was Gibby should be saying there is no sign of a cold and snowy spell instead.

    • Like 3

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    It's quite discerning how the coldies have been forgotton, it's still winter until the Spring Equinox, people don't look for cool weather in late August and don't give up on Summer like weather until late October so why abandon looking for Winter so early, don't give me people are fed up of Winter because it wasn't good enough for them, people don't give up on Summer in late August even if it's been bad upto that point.

    • Like 4

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

    THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep Low pressure area will move East to the NW of Scotland and send active fronts quickly East today and tonight followed by a very strong and cold showery Westerly flow tomorrow.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

    MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy with rain at times and hill snow across the North at first. Milder generally later and maybe drier in the South.

    THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a strong West to East flow across the Atlantic through this week and down across the UK ahead of fronts and retreating back North in their wake. Longer term the flow appears to weaken and becomes more diffuse as multiple options are shown.

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

    GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a very changeable week ahead with spell of wind and rain later today and again midweek book ended with cold and showery weather with gales in the North. The cold period late in the week will be much less pronounced over the South and replaced quite quickly everywhere with mild SW winds with occasional rain almost anywhere at times but chiefly towards the North and West. High pressure develops near the UK late in the run migrating NE and threatening the quiet weather with bright days and frosty night with a cold East wind over the South to end the period with the threat of wintry showers in the SE.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

     

    THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run differs only in as much as it keeps the UK windier and more unsettled for longer into the second week as the strong Westerly flow persists. It's not until late in the run that High pressure becomes most influential just to the South with temperatures throughout the run gradually returning to average values after the variability of those in the first week.

    THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters support a 60/40 split in favour of Atlantic westerly winds driving the weather across the UK in two weeks time. The 60% show High pressure to the SW with Low pressure to the North driving rain bearing fronts east across the UK periodically. The 40% show a mix of high pressure just to the SE or North-West with fine weather for many with frosts by night.

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

    UKMO UKMO this morning looks distinctly changeable under Westerly or NW winds. There will be spells of rain alternating with showers all week with temperatures fluctuating between mild on Wednesday and Saturday and rather cold on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

    THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning support the operational well with an active Westerly flow across the Atlantic maintaining changeable conditions across the UK alternating between wet and windy weather and sunshine and showers, wintry on hills especially in the North all in association with active troughs crossing West to east across the UK all week.

    http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

    GEM GEM this morning shows a very changeable pattern too with a lot of rather cold and showery weather between occasional bands of milder SW winds with rain. It's not until the last few frames of the run that High pressure noses more meaningfully towards the West of the UK in the wake of a cold Northerly.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

    NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a breezy and changeable week with some sunshine but occasional rain at times in the form of showers in cold West or NW winds and a band of wet and windy weather midweek in a brief milder interlude. Then late in the week a milder SW flow takes hold more substantially with rain at times especially in the North and West.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

    ECM ECM this morning shows  a much more unsettled period throughout the duration of the run today with a strong west to east flow over the Atlantic maintained and delivering the UK spells of wet and windy weather in somewhat milder weather and colder more showery spells especially over the North where snow could fall at times particularly over the coming week. The run ends with a small but vigorous Low near to NW Ireland with rain and gales for all.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

    ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows a familiar pattern of High to the South and Low to the North in a broad Westerly flow. With less of a cyclonic NW direction to the flow and more of a SW to West then the incidence of tropical maritime air influences across the UK especially the South is likely to be greater than of late.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

    NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the output today of how much and what impact High pressure has across the UK in Week 2 with a variety of options shown not all for fine weather.

    31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM just continues to lead the field at 90.0 pts over UKMO at 88.0 pts and GFS at 85.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.7 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.6 pts over GFS at 40.6.

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

     

    MY THOUGHTS Improvements in the current changeable, unsettled pattern of weather across the UK look quite slow again from this morning's output. Both UKMO and ECM continue to paint a very changeable pattern as we move into March but probably less of polar maritime rather cold weather than of late but still with wind and rain prominent at times. There are variations on a changeable theme from GEM longer term and NAVGEM looks broadly similar.. The main culprit of the slow build of pressure lies with a Jet flow which refuses to lie down and repeatedly flattens any ridging from the Azores High. As this High extends more influence towards Iberia and the Med later winds will back off somewhat towards the SW or West which should see temperatures recover somewhat across the UK with less influence of any cold pools behind cold fronts to the NW. Nevertheless if it's sustained fine and sunny Spring weather your looking for as we enter March you may have to wait a little longer yet. GFS is worth a mention as it shows a cold High to the North and NE and the threat of something cold from the East late in the operational's run but it is poorly supported and will likely be removed in the upcoming 6Z and 12z runs. So in Summary typical early March weather seems likely over the next few weeks with a Westerly flow most likely delivering some rain for all, especially across the North and West with some brighter and chillier phases when patchy frost is likely by night otherwise temperatures look broadly close to average for much of the time after this coming week.  

    Issued at 08:30 Sunday February 22nd 2015

     

     

    What about those looking for a very cold snowy spell?....Early March can deliver that.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The models are no nearer to resolving D6 plus. Both GEM and GFS hold their nerve and keep to their stories from the 0z:

     

    attachicon.gifgfsnh-0-192.png  attachicon.gifgemnh-0-192.png

     

    Neither had support from their mean on the 0z and in fact both have similar means; zonal. However it is not as simple as that and various outcomes remain viable.

     

    GFS op is resolutely consistent with HP from D6 to D10 plus. However as others have pointed out they were wrong before and this may be the default outcome from the new GFS op. Time will tell, but potential for a very warm few days:

     

    attachicon.gifgfs-15-186.png

     

     

     

    11C/12C isn't very warm, even GFS quickly cools it down.

     

    When is early March very warm, you need something exceptional for this early in the year, sorry but you are really misleading people.

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Will be interesting to see if the ECM 12z brings forward the start of a more settled spell just like the GFS 12z just has. This mornings ECM mean had winds veering more westerly later on so more in the way of early Spring mildness if it were to verify.

     

    This would feel pleasantly Springlike in fairly light winds

     

    Rtavn22217.gif

     

     

    Got any thoughts on the rest of the run Milhouse and other model output, i would be very interested to hear them.

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