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Eugene

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Posts posted by Eugene

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECMWF shows a Northerly flow after flopping the idea last night. Yes agree there Knock, Where this will lead to is still unknown as you say. Will it be a pattern change, Or just a blip... A very interesting period for model watching. Hats off to the GFS  :hi:

     

    h850t850eu.pngecmt850.216.png ecmt850.240.png

     

     

    Hopefully a pattern change, we really need the rain now especially the southeast, followed by a dry cold northerly which wouldn't be too bad.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The GEFS 6z mean shows a change to cooler and unsettled weather by the end of next week onwards but there will be plenty of fine, anticyclonic and pleasantly warm weather with good sunny spells to enjoy for the next 7/8 days or so, indeed, next week should become rather warm with temperatures into the mid 60's F.

     

     

    Netweathers headline is southern warmth fading with a widespread cool settled spell starting friday, looks much cooler from tomorrow for the midlands.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     

    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 14TH 2015.
     
    THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm and moist SW or West flow covers much of the UK today with a weakening cold front moving South over Scotland and Northern England tonight and tomorrow.
     
     
    MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.
     
    THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the main flow currently running East over the far North weakening over the coming days and then steered well away to the North of the UK for much of the remainder of the run driven by High pressure centred near the UK through much of the run period today this morning.
     
     
    GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows plenty of High pressure across or around the UK over the coming two weeks. The position varies from day to day with a bias of it being just to the North and NE of the UK with a cool East wind at times in the South but with very little rainfall anywhere and some warm days at times chiefly but not exclusively in the West and NW. 
     
     
     
    THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in Week 1 with plenty of High pressure driven fine and sunny weather  with moderate warmth in the sunshine but chilly nights. In the second week this run shows more ingress of low pressure from the West eroding the fine weather and introducing some rain and showers at times to many areas and near average temperatures.
     
    THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters continue to show mixed messages in two weeks time with a mix of High pressure to the South and SW with varying degrees in the extent of influence of Atlantic Low pressure to the North or NW while a 20% or so mix indicating a much more High pressure based pattern across the UK by then. 
     
     
    UKMO UKMO shows High pressure developing and intensifying across the UK towards and over the weekend with fine and sunny conditions for many under light winds, chilly nights and though days not as warm as currently in the South they will remain very respectable in the sunshine.
     
     
    THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the increasingly High pressure area across the UK late in the week and weekend with a weak front on it's Southern flank gradually dissolving away South taking it's warm and humid air with it and replacing it with fine and sunny weather if less warm by the weekend.
     
     
    GEM GEM today also shows a build of High pressure but this model places it further to the north with a cool East wind across much of the UK with dry and fine weather and the best of the sunshine in the West. The run also still likes the idea of attempting to introduce colder and more unsettled conditions from the North later as pressure falls across and to the west of the UK in cold air aloft.
     
     
    NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure once formed across the UK in a few days time maintained through to the end of the run with fine and settled weather for all with some warm sushine by day but with chilly Spring nights.
     
     
    ECM ECM today is showing High pressure too with the centre well defined at the weekend gradually become less so next week in as much as by the end of next week pressure is slack and lower than earlier in the week introducing the risk of some cool and more unsettled conditions with the risk of showers increasing almost anywhere 
     
     
    ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z)  The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure ensconced near or over the UK with largely fine and settled conditions most likely with any rain bearing Atlantic based weather systems weak and steered well away from the UK.
     
     
    NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today.
     
    31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.1 pts over GFS's 61.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.4 pts over GFS at 42.4. 
     
     
     
     
     
     
    MY THOUGHTS High pressure is the driving force of the model output from both sides of the Atlantic today with all output showing strong support for a UK based High pressure area developing late this week and lasting some considerable time before some longer term output explores the possibility of a decline in conditions in week 2 but none of that shown indicating any major shift away from settled weather. The current fine and very warm conditions across Southern England will be replaced by a new High on Thursday and Friday with cooler and for a time cloudier conditions perhaps with the odd shower as an old front clears South. Then through the weekend and much of next week there will be plenty of sunny days with light winds and temperatures near or somewhat above average by day but cool near East facing coasts and universally cool by night with some unwanted grass frosts at times. All areas look like staying dry with even the far NW largely fine. As I indicated earlier as we move through Week 2 the extended outputs do suggest some moderation in High pressure as Low pressure in one shape or shallow form offers the risk of cool and showery conditions becoming a possibility late in the second week but at such a range not much credence can be put on this yet. So lets all enjoy what looks likely to be a sustained fine period and though not always overly warm especially by night at least the bright Spring sunshine will be welcomed for many though I have heard locally that some Farmers and Growers could do with a drop of rain for the Spring crops down here in the south and SW. 
     
    Next update from 08:00 Wednesday April 15th 2015
     
     
     
     

     

     

     

    The average April min is 4C so its completely normal, who are these people who don't want cool nights anyway, most people like them.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    There is no great agreement between tonight's anomalies about the breakdown at day ten

     

    The GEFS has the high latitude blocking with the trough to the NW of the UK that brings cold NW to the UK with temps below average. The ECM has the ridge to the SW of the UK aligned NW with a low pressure area adjacent to NE Canada. This would still bring the UK under the influence of HP centred to the west. It has to be said though that in the ext. period the ECM moves towards the GEFs position pretty quickly.

     

    It certainly looks as is we are looking at a spell of quite cold unsettled conditions but far to early to call at this stage.

    Chart courtesy weatherbell

     

     

    No cold daytime highs now until November at the earliest for the majority, single figure maxs are going to be very hard to come by for southern britain mid April onwards, nights like last night definately can still get cold until early June.

     

    Looks like HP domination for the foreseeable future, stunning Spring so far.

    • Like 3

    April warm spell

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    As we've breached 20C and have been discussing events in other threads i thought i'd create this one so we don't clog the spring thread which is more a long range thread.

     

    ...

     

    14C here now but it does feel much fresher, i found Sunday and Monday to feel a little oppressive. 

     

    Warmest right now is 18C.

     

    ..

     

    Outlook looks pretty lovely bar the weekend with pressure building again next week.

     

     

    It hasn't been oppressive at all, this is perfect warmth with cool nights.

     

    Warm spells aren't uncommon at all in April, overhyped as per usual by the same people who tell people night frost isn't unusual.

    • Like 2

    The Midlands - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Heavy blustery showers all day but with with sunny spells this afternoon. Horribly windy in the squalls. Although the temp is around the 11-11.5C mark, it feels cool in the wind.

     

     

    Lucky you picog, no sunshine at all here, today makes a complete joke of those ramping up the warmth, last week felt much warmer in prolonged sunshine.

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    Tonight's Ecm 12z shows increasingly mild tropical maritime air set to bathe the south of the UK for at least 4 consecutive days from next Sunday, temperatures during that time would easily reach the mid teens Celsius and a little higher where the best of the sunshine occurs, the south and east of England being most favoured for that...Very pleasant indeed.

     

     

    This never materialised though Frosty, blustery heavy showers here now and feeling anything but tropical in PM WNW'lys.

    • Like 2

    The Midlands - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Seemed to hail for hours on end last night here, slow to brighten up today but nice yesterday and looks decent tomorrow now to, sods law the weekend looks like rubbish.

     

     

    Yeah though some for some strange reason some are calling it great when its been a nice week.

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows strong support for an Arctic incursion around the 2nd / 3rd April, so a cold outbreak later next week is a distinct possibility, at least for the north and east of the UK.

     

    That mean chart will give lovely warm sunshine, wish people would stop saying its cold, its only at night, daytime feels warm, to get cold feeling days you need a combination of cloud cover and strong winds/rainfall, this week has proven cold uppers alone aren't enough , the afternoon sun is too strong.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    The GEFS have a definite signal of heights to our north/west with low heights to our East or South East.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240  

    All very interesting to see if it could be cold enough for a little late winter.

     

     

    It won't be cold enough, looking disappointingly cool and cloudy from the east next week on GFS 12Z, very wet this friday as a front stalls over central areas.

     

    GFS 12Z is very chilly for the weekend bringing in some -5C uppers, max of only 5C on Saturday with dull conditions, its going to feel brrrrrrrr.

    • Like 2
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