Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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September will bring in the good weather, patience...
Try August 2nd.
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Disgusting summer here with heatwave after heatwave and no rain. We are in a huge drought. Trees are turning brown, grass is long gone and rivers are almost empty. The forecast for the next 10 days makes me sick. I mean, do I still live in the temperate zone or should I start planting palm trees?
Same here daz, more of a temperate version with disgustingly humid cloudy weather dominating with mild nights and only the odd wet day.
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Three fresher days and thats it, the cool nights were a joy to behold, now back to the monotony of humid nothing weather and people say this country is too cool.
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Pretty normal July then and the warmest month of the year so far, been a humid month too.
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GFS 06z looks a bit erm different to the rest at t120
Compare with ECM and UKMO
3 models offering 3 different options just 5 days away
Exactly yet people getting hung up on early August charts, crazy.
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on the plus side... the air quality is great! wonderfully fresh like it was for a lot of may and june in the pm air. so whilst not heat, its very pleasant outdoors in the sun.
Couldn't agree more Mushy, May especially was glorious, Southeasterlies of June/early July were pleasant but the cloudy TM SW'lys have made me ill, model output shows a wonderfully slack period next weekend with sub 546 dam air aloft with that exceptional air quality you and i like so much.
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Lovely fresh sunny day so much better than the muggy damp cloudfest of early week.
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Sorry Diagonal i see no sign of any sustained heat for the UK, i see a very cool period coming up to end July with some unusually cool nights, quite unusual to see such a cool pool of air setting up to our northwest in late July, i think August will end up cool before the inevitable warm and dry September, it's obvious this summer will end up nothing special, we've been lucky with the very brief plumes with no prolonged HP spells.
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I'm sure you wont be wishing your life away and talk about spring and summer during the winter then?
LOL, great post highlighting the hypocrisy of the warmies, +1 like.
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Can't really argue with the idea of NWlies in the T168-T240 period. A couple of "get-outs" though. First, it depends on the building of a mid-Atlantic high, something which has already been modelled several times this summer with no success. A second one is that, again going by the form of the summer so far, the western end of the trough (see yellows in the mid-Atlantic on first chart below) ...
... could develop into another more active system, encouraging a rise in heights ahead of it which block the path of the NWlies and push the Scandi trough further north - a few GEFS members do something like that. Not all hot and sunny though!
Here's the "bingo" run!!
The op run itself is not a million miles from the same situation:
Is this the reason that the Met persist with a "hot and sunny" warning in their mid-term forecasts?
Model output must be poor if near average temps are a bingo run.
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With Gibby hinting that north westerly winds could push the heat well away to south east next week and only 2 weeks left in July this will take us in to August which is last month of proper summer and can be quiet wet at times, so in a nutshell that could be it for this summer.
Roll on winter.
Yeah this humid murk is beyond tedious, southwesterlies are dreadful at least northwesterlies are fresher though in July the lovely PM northwesterlies are hard to achieve with PM airmasses retreating northwards, roll on September when they start to dominate again to our west.
Summer is such a tedious season in more ways than one, at least the Premier League starts in August and things start to pick up.
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Warm and humid all week here, no sign of any fresher weather, after a slow start summers are always warm and muggy nowadays.
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Gladly, much how the endless gloom of winter drags on & on & on & on, the lovely long days are around for a good while yet!
Wow you must be the only person who mentions winters gloom in mid July, you seem to always bring it up way out of season, it's an eternity until winter's long nights and people don't need to be constantly reminded of it.
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More of a hot snap than a hot spell really.
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What makes you think that?
Common sense maybe.
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Not sure what you expected Summer but today we're in TM southwesterlies not TC southeasterlies.
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After yesterdays glorious TC air we are back to TM dross, more TC air tomorrow before more dross next week, Summer 1976 repeat seems a million miles away.
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Just goes to show what you know I guess, or don't! 36.7 at Heathrow, all new July record and it's still only mid afternoon so that could climb even higher.
Can't find his post in here but i can't believe he said that with todays uppers, epic fail in his regard.
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I must admit as i get older i become less sensitive to heat, didn't feel too bad when i was out earlier.
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Very pleasant heat today, really doesn't bother me at all.
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Wow what a massive upgrade since i last checked the models tuesday from cool northwesterlies to very hot southeasterlies, thats what makes the UK's weather so exciting, it's unpredictability, notice some already moaning about heat before it's even started.
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Fridays rapidly becoming a naff day with the weekend also looking like it will be cool, breezey and overcast. Remember 18-20C is now below par for large parts of the south as we enter what is technically high summer, with plenty of cloud it won't feel like high summer!
Yes after a very dry pleasant period it looks like our luck runs out with an unsettled period starting friday as you say, saturday looks ok before more dull wet weather on sunday, next tuesday onwards looks unsettled and breezy with winds turning more westerly by next thursday/friday.
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a plume would be nice, but its not expected to be a major affair ... yet anyway. but with the mean upper flow from the southwest it should be warmer. its been cool since march on and off, hopefully the patterns changing to at least a southwesterly from a northwesterly.
A higher risk of dull wet days though with more moisture in the airstream, GFS 12Z/UKMO 12Z are nothing to shout about regarding any long lasting summer heat.
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It seems the central/south midlands and southeast/southern england are enjoying a fine summers day, northwesterlies are great for us.
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Remarkable lack of rain this Summer here, endless warmth and humidity, definately turning into a very good summer, who needs endless 25C+ days, 22C feels roasting in prolonged sunshine.