Eugene

I think i may have already agreed with you about it turning milder before you even posted. You probably said that when the models were showing mild all the way in November, of course it could turn colder again by late March no matter what the models show today.

GFS 12Z OP was a big warm outlier towards the end snowman, ensembles offer lots of near average solutions in the long term and some cold ones too, wouldnt be surprised to see yet another cold spell emerge for mid to late March.

Well to me highs of 1C to 3C in parts with unbroken strong March sunshine is incredible you usually need cloud cover and very cold strong easterly winds for colder maxs than that in March, yesterday the 850`s weren't even that cold and winds light. The low level cold was remarkable for the temps it gave and extremely low dewpoints that froze parts of canals and ponds when i was out walking yesterday, night mins of -8C for a town area and for Birmingham airport is remarkable, out in a nearby valley it reached -14C colder than anything i have seen this past winter, -7C is usually the coldest i have recorded in winters months so -8C in early March is remarkable i don't care what early March 1947 reached in Coventry as i wasn't born then.

-8C here on edge of town last night and -14C in nearby valley ...incredible cold snap, wonderful way for this winter to go out with a bang with very low temps and extremely low dewpoints.

Looks like the cold theme is coming to an end towards the end of the week FINALLY!....... remarkable persistence of cold since mid December really, HP centred just to our southwest with a light northwesterly flow looks favourite daytime temps around 10C, might be some cloud around.

Wow some amazing dewpoints forecasted for midday tomorrow especially in wales http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2410.png Todays dewpoints are also incredibly cold for March

Some incredible maxs today with 3C in some midland, southern and eastern areas of england in unbroken sunshine since dawn, that really is special for March 7th in that strong sunshine, i mean it feels like a cold mid winters day, we should keep a record of this day just to show to people who say it can't get cold in March like in mid winter, i recorded -12C in a nearby valley very early this morning ...Never known anything like this, its a really noteworthy weather event just like 20C in the first week of March. Please post your maxs and mins here, temps should drop like a stone in the next few hours. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=03&TT=07&TIME=1500&TYP=temperatursyn&KEY=MID&TIME=1267974763 I've just recorded 3.7C as a high on my digital thermometer today and its not in an ideal spot for temp readings so you could take some of that

Yesterday actually felt the mildest all week with milder dewpoints after a very cold start filtering south in the afternoon making it feel milder, of course this is all relative of course showing just how cold its been lately(dewpoint wise) as even cool dewpoints felt mild. Colder dewpoints moving in now though and by early tomorrow into early monday it will feel perishing dewpoint wise, i`m surprised more people don't take notice of dewpoints as they are very important in how cold or mild it feels out of the sun/at night. Max of just 7C today.

No sign of any warmth on a rather cold looking GFS 12Z , pretty amazing i can't see any 10C+`s in england on a run out to T+384 hrs in March :o

Maxs of 5C forecasted tomorrow which in end to end clear blue skies and sunshine is very impressive indeed, shows just how cold the airmass is getting advected over us tonight with very cold low level air entrained, watch temps drop like a stone as soon as the sun starts to go down tomorrow afternoon I wouldn't be surprised to see some 2C to 3C maxs tomorrow in isolated spots.

No absolutely awful is mild sw'lys with lots of cloud and rain, the outlook doesn't look awful for most but not as great as some would make you believe with the chance of cloud cover in southern/eastern areas in the early week, i think you expect way too much from March in what is the first month of spring, mild atlantic muck is quite common in March so the cool HP theme is pretty good for people who like chilly weather. For proper spring fans i guess you could say they are poor as no sign of a proper taste of spring with temps into the early to mid teens with mild dewpoints that so many March's can produce. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4210.png - With such bonechilling dewpoints tomorrow night has the potential to be even colder than tonight, that should do the CET no favours at all.

Looks like the cold weather goes on for another week at least with maybe a cold northerly next weekend, pretty amazing this run of cold weather, yes 6C to 7C is cold for March in the midlands and south they are average winter maxs not average March maxs with bonechilling nights, -6C forecasted for the midlands tonight which is incredible for March, the days are getting as long as very early October now, doubt we would see -6C or colder in the midlands that early

lol so cool settled weather doesnt suit you then, a shame because plenty of that on offer, well actually cold as 5C on sunday is not a springlike day no matter what anybody tells you with really cold dewpoints,i see GFS sticking to some incredible dewpoints for midday monday but moved them to the southwest now. No sign of spring on the ensembles, staying below average for weeks, at least a below average CET is possible again so will please some. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Well i frankly am sick to death of the oh buts its warm in the sun comments, that is something you will always contend with in March but it doesnt change the fact out of the sun and when it goes down it feels like winter. Trees usually come into blossom when the weather is like spring but there is NO SIGN of that whatsoever, trees are as bare as the countryside, insect wise you get bees, big buzzards etc coming out when its springlike too but apart from some small flies in the sun i havent see any at all, spring definately hasnt sprung here in warwickshire.

UKMO 12Z around T+60 hrs also brings in some cold uppers, looks like it will produce some very low dewpoints and bonechilling nights, just incredible how many >-15C's central scotland is recording lately, more >-7C's should be recorded in england and wales early next week before the cloudier easterly air moves into the midlands, south and eastern areas. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN60-7.GIF?04-17

After that initial cold blast we start to pick up a milder/moister easterly flow but unfortunately a very cloudy one at that.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn9610.png - WTF surely an error those dewpoints in north wales especially are phenomenal in March, easily freeze still water those kind of dewpoints would.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7210.png

Despite decent spells of sunshine temps widely only reached 6C/7C very briefly and temps are starting to drop already, In March its very easy for max temps to reach 11C/12C in sunshine so its not that great at all really and it feels cold still, looks like another hot shower tonight to warm up.

[quote]There is one person who has been very quiet and that is Ian Brown. For the last few years, he has bombarded the forums with his modern winter, modern "era" theories etc and has been on the record saying that even a 1995-96 may not be achievable anymore. How on earth is he going to explain this? It was obvious to me even if there is a trend in one direction there were too many variables and random elememts to dismiss possibilities. Why Ian could not see this is beyond me. His theory is in tatters, his benchmarks surpassed. This winter has been absolute disaster for him as he says he has written a book ironically called "At least it will be mild".[/quote] Yes what an absolute disaster for him and his small legion of fans, what was laughable was how he stuck to his mild rhetoric even in February after the persistent wintry weather we had gone through in December and January, it was pretty disastrous for the UKMO as well, i feel the last few years poor seasonal forecasting by them has in part lead to them abandoning doing anymore seasonal forecasts, they are much better doing weekly/monthly forecasts. Another point worth bringing up are the unrealistically high expectations alot of posters have regarding our climate, it seems the coldest UK winter in over 30 years, the coldest scottish and N ireland winter in almost 50 years and a very cold start to March isn't enough to stop them throwing their toys out of their pram.

Yes a deviation from the norm of 1.2C and the coldest winter for over 30 years isn't enough to stop a mass exodus already beginning steve, as you say a cold first half to March seems very likely putting us in with a good chance of recording the fourth below average month in a row.

You sound disappointed happy days i guess the coldest winter since 1979 and a cold start to March with more cold in the week ahead isnt enough to please you, see you in november but please dont expect a better winter for next winter, you may have to wait 30 more years for one as good

Yes it says people are tired of cold because that is what the outlook shows. http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png Looks like the HP position next week is critical to whether we get sunshine or cloudy ENE'lys like on GFS 06Z, afterwards a slack cool pattern or atlantic rushing in seems likely. UKMO 6 to 15 dayer mentions it staying cold with night frosts, what they dont mention is there is the chance of some very low dewpoints early next week, UKMO now do a 16 to 30 dayer and says rain will be way above average away from the north and east.

Yes it will feel bitter this weekend, i mean if that is a failed easterly please show me a successful one, they are some astonishing cold 850`s this weekend for early March, temps might reach 4C in any sunshine but it will takes ages for temps to recover after bone chilling nights and in the shade it will feel freezing not all of us sit out in the sun all day long :o http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=114&mode=0&runpara= 　 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=3&ech=120&mode=0&runpara= 　 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=7&ech=120&mode=0&runpara= 　 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=120&code=17&mode=0&runpara= :o 　 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=126&mode=0&runpara= 　 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=10&ech=132&mode=0&runpara= 　 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-8-1-144.png?12 A definate increase in the amount of cold easterly runs on the GFS 12Z ensembles.