Eugene

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=02&TT=10&TIME=1900&TYP=temperatursyn&KEY=MID&TIME=1265829967 Wow down to -2C widely already as of 19 00 hrs, hope you are looking conor

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m6.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt850m6.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m7.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m8.gif I love the GFS 12Z ensemble mean charts staying cold throughout with severe frosts at night and excellent potential for some snow showers almost anywhere almost all next week and beyond

Yes i completely agree, i am amazed at some of the downbeat posts tonight given the excellent synoptics and potential for snowfall next week God help us when we get a winter dominated by HP over france and a strong atlantic jet.

TBH exact details at this range don't matter what is important is the overall trend and that is for a greenland high and cold LP moving southwards, exact positioning won't be known until much nearer the time, usually models have things too far west and push it further east nearer the time so having it too far west at this range is good It's so refreshing to have HP to our northwest and LP forming in cold regions instead of the reverse and HP to our southwest with LP forming in the tropical atlantic

Here's bablake's in coventry forecast for next week, to be honest i don't agree at all with there only being a dusting of snow in our region(warwickshire) in January i was in countryside areas and it was way more than just a dusting with drifts of snow and that was in low areas high areas got lots more, another IMBY'er using his own back yard in a warm city to judge the region as a whole.

Well it's snowing today and temps are below 0C already so we did get something from it. http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png - Impressive ensembles below average temps just go on and on

So you are a mild ramper afterall then always thought you were as anybody who likes cold would tell you the worst kind of weather in February would obviously be a bartlett high setup. Temp has gone below 0C here already and its still light so your little temperature change betwen day and night doesn't apply for today thats for sure.

Excellent GFS 12Z, by the weekend of february 20th onwards if pressure rises to our north and east then we could be back to another cold northeasterly/easterly flow Wintry lovers delight this run but not all is guaranteed to fall as snow everywhere, still would much rather have the chance of snow for some than none It's like a April setup next week that would then deliver some great cloudscapes and convective wintry showers

Yes northants you would of thought by now they would of sussed the models esp GFS pushes things eastwards nearer the time so to have it too far west was good, have to say currently i only see heavy rain for the midlands and south on monday though unless we get some decent undercutting of cold air behind that front, turning it to snow monday night, great synoptics to have at the T+120 hrs to t+144 hrs range though and a billion times better than a bartlett setup

I really hope steve murr took my advice and chose centre parcs in suffolk

LOL maybe game over in your head but the weather will have other idea's thankfully Just to show to those who say the cold never ends up in the reliable timeframe well those charts below should be a reliable timeframe enough for you and that is cold no matter what you say http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn062.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1210.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1217.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn123.png

Lovely late winters day with lots of sunny spells, turning more cloudy now and it feels very cold today as that colder crisper air moved in from the northeast, max of 3C. I`m so glad i predicted a colder and drier week when so many were going for mild and wet

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn122.png Last time i looked on monday there was some doubt about the >-10C 850 hPa air and only reaching southeast england and east anglia , on this chart it reaches a larger area, nice upgrade since i last looked , the runs are looking very similar to when i last looked with less cold air getting into the mix from friday, not sure why the disappointment things went exactly as planned, there was never a mega cold spell on the way actually a mild wet week could of been on its way so we should all be happy with the pleasant february sunshine and crisp air lol yes bring on the convective thunderstorms in the spring with some snow mixed in

I really like ECM 12Z, fantastic chart for a severe frost with freezing fog, great to wake up to a white landscape http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif - Upgrade in my eyes and the 510 line isn't far away at all really.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png - OP looks one of the milder runs mid to late this week, looking at the manchester, aberdeen and to a lesser extent london ensembles it looks like it won't turn mild for two weeks especially midlands northwards

We are in for a cold northeasterly mid week though with >-10C 850 hPa uppers moving into the southeast of england/east anglia just because it doesnt reach all of the UK doesnt mean TEITS shouldnt point it out. Less cold air will always move in after an initial cold blast anyway, look at the history of the UK`s winter weather and even in historic winters like 1962/63 less cold air moves in, i think people have expecatations way too high for an island just off the atlantic jetstream, you will always get less cold air even with blocking cold patterns in the UK, learn to live with it or move to a continental climate.

Yes but GFS was going for temps of around 2C so was right. Models are hopeless anyway outside of 3 to 5 days, 5 days ago it was supposed to be around 10C with a mild westerly flow today but what we got was a chilly northeasterly feed, they haven't got a clue have they http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.png

Nice steady pattern out to this weekend, with high confidence i can tell people they can go out and enjoy the weather this weekend instead of hiding away indoors from Heavy Rain, well until the weekend of February 27th/28th that is http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png Harsh frosts likely at night away from the cloudier southeast. Nowhere near to a atlantic breakdown and that at T+144 hrs the limit of what to believe really. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png - Slower retrogression should help prolong the cold spell.

This is the kind of chart in previous winters after the usual stormy January people would be looking forward to some nice relief with some cold and frosty dry weather http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png

lol this time last week even on wednesday the models were mostly showing mild wet and windy weather dominating this week, i see that as a massive upgrade, rather cold by day with night frosts and snow showers for some in the north/east, miles better than what could of occured. It amazes me some people believe models for end of next week when the models couldn't even make their mind up over this week just last wednesday, end of next week is so far away we could be stuck in this cold pattern still by then and anyway as we come towards the end of February anything near average/milder than average won't make much difference to the overall winter anyway. Seeing as mild, wet and windy is the dominating weather in a british winter we have done exceptionally well to avoid hardly any at all apart from the odd day here and there. I think GEM 00Z and ECM 00Z are very good and would takes ages to properly warm us up which by that time it would be early March anyway

Anybody else tired of the cold is no use without snow comments? Ludicrous statement as you need cold locked in place first for the chance for long lasting snow, no chance of that with the atlantic in charge and snow gone before you know it.

I hear lots of it won't be that cold by day well at night it will be with -10C or lower possible in the usual spots later in the week in england and wales, some lovely harsh frosts at night nothing better IMO.

I always find these threads kind of strange in early February just like winter threads in early August, in both cases there is ages to hot and cold weather in the UK as it really doesn't get hot until early to mid June onwards in most years. I think we are reverting to a 1980`s type climate with more cold winters but unfortunately more cool summers. Typically cold winters produce cold springs/cool summers in this country, i`m going for a summer similar to 1985(not as cool/wet though), this winter has been abit similar to winter 1984/85. LOL, thats nothing to celebrate he's renown for his love of extremes so always goes for cold winters and hot summers.

lol yes too many assumptions going on as usual and looking at the ensembles shows the very cold air could easily back our way if people think GFS 12Z OP has nailed later in the week exactly then they really have alot to learn. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=96&code=7&mode=0&runpara=