Eugene

Yes almost all ensemble runs now going for an easterly or southeasterly around T+120 hrs but this evolution starts as early as T+72 hrs :o

Yes i agree with this its the leader to be honest, yes it changes it's mind as all models do but it's the first to settle on the eventual near outcome IMO. So which outcome are you leaning towards North Sea Snow Convection, you know which one i am inclined to

So we are practically guaranteed a below average winter

As early as T+72 hrs i knew this run was looking like a stonker and the ensembles did have some runs like it so you can't write it off completely, remember this hasnt come out of nowhere, runs were showing it earlier this week/late last week, the last two weeks have bene cold just we were so used to very cold most got used to it so i can see it staying cold mostly throughout February into March, i think GFS has settled on the eventual outcome now.(maybe less cold though in actuality) ECM and UKMO has showed this kind of outcome just a day or two ago so whose to say it won't again.

Crazy to think 16C/17C was being bandied about just a few days ago for sunday and now temps look like this at this rate sunday will be an ice day B) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png B)

Lets be fair nick ECM and UKMO have both swung wildly too, both models going for cold easterlies on monday before dropping the idea yesterday, UKMO not until 12Z. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010020112!!chart.gif http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010020100!!chart.gif

Here's the GEM 00Z which is excellent and i think could be near to the actual outcome. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif TBH just a slight tweek to ECM 00Z OP with a slightly stronger push southwards of HP to our north and it could turn out similar.

Yes GFS was first with the easterly then dropped it only for UKMO and ECM to go for it then just the UKMO now GFS and most of it's ensembles are going for it but UKMO isn't, ECM is like in the middle, models all over the place currently i have a sneaking feeling cool to cold will win(nothing major yet though) even if we get a brief milder blip. That mild southerly for sunday/monday is getting squeezed again.

I expect the ECM ensembles to show the OP as one of the milder solutions, check out GEM 00Z iceberg very interesting run indeed, this really is very complex indeed and FI is very close atm.

Very encouraging ensembles, definate cooling trend into next week and the very good GFS 00Z OP was one of the milder runs too http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

UKMO 00Z doesnt play ball BUT there is now quite alot of runs on the GFS 00Z ensembles showing similar to GFS 00Z OP , what a nightmare for forecasters, no 16C/17C though for sure on sunday no matter which way it goes

lol i did say monday night i expect sunday to look alot different later this week, well i didn't expect it quite as early as today, 16C/17C on sunday, not in your dreams mate http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png

Yes i completely agree, the atlantic is not in control of our weather, it looks sluggish to me and prone for HP to take control from the weekend.

Very promising GFS 06Z ensembles even some runs that briefly bring in the atlantic in the early stages of FI push the high to our east west giving us easterlies.

Yes excellent post Mr Data just showing how each days GFS pushes back that deep low for saturday morning. Hey we have just recorded the coldest January since 1987 and the first half of January was exceptionally cold as well as a cold December, i'm tired of seeing these posts always saying we can't have confidence in cold weather when we can this winter and last winter. I have no confidence in mild weather dominating after the way this winter has gone hence why i`m always favouring cold this winter.

These are normally useless but they did predict lots of blocking this winter so maybe not so useless afterall, looks like a very cold Feb and with that block to our northeast you can't write that off atm. Not that great for our spring and summer prospects it must be said, it has every month upto July as below average in southern UK. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

My post from sunday night regarding GFS 12Z for friday night now look at what its showing, no deep low zipping across us and no gales at all now but calm winds and a frost, just like i say it always pushes back the atlantic. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

Yes and look at GFS 00Z, earlier runs had the atlantic over us at this point but its cold and frosty, i think we`ll see a trend for atlantic to get pushed back a day on each days runs, seen it so many times before this winter everyone moaning about atlantic domination but it never gets here even this week the atlantic lows are very sluggish staying centred out west and not zipping across us. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

Yes poor runs this morning overall BUT i still feel this isn't done and dusted yet and that there is still the possibility of the blocking to our east blocking the atlantic, in these situstions its best to go on your own thoughts, so many times cold has been the outsider but it has won this winter, write more off at your peril is my opinion. T+72 hrs+ is probably FI atm.

Yes and ECM 00Z shows IB was way too premature in calling temps of 16C/17C for next weekend, interestingly some easterly runs showing up on the GFS 00Z ensembles for this time next week including the control UKMO 00Z T+144 hrs builds pressure on the near continent too.

Nice dusting of snow this morning, temp currently -2C, quite funny people writing off the whole of Feb and it snowed very early in the month

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Short lived milder snap? Not good for those who wrote the whole of february off thats for sure

It's worth saying the very mild(temps over 10C) and wet weather is a week away, alot can change in a week, i'm sure the actual outcome will look different come next sunday, i`ll be here to see if i was right or not

Deckchairs flying around friday night, at least it will feel cold in those severe gale force winds http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png