Eugene

Yes fantastic output, GFS 12Z FI is a snowfest I wonder if conor has put his faulty crystal ball up for sale on ebay

UKMO 12Z is a stunner, much better than this mornings UKMO 00Z run http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?04-17

Yes yesterday FI was around T+72 hrs but with another almost identical GFS 12Z run around that mark it has increased to around T+120 hrs onwards now.

Yuck horrid dull dark dank day, a mild 8C but it sure doesn't feel like it, colder crisper sunnier weather feels warmer than this with increasing solar input in February.

Yes you are correct in everything you say, i posted in here yesterday that GFS was the leader and that yes it changes it mind like other models but in the end is the first model to settle on the eventual outcome.

lol i said eastern side of the country that could mean anywhere from the extreme southeast of england to the far northeast scotland hardly IMBY at all

Blo*dy hell, the eastern side of the country would be plastered with snow here http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

Yes looking slightly better than 00Z so far http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png Atlantic looking in a very sad state indeed and out powered by blocking to the north and east again, love it :lol:

Mild air really struggling to get into the midlands even, looks like its gets squeezed out as it moves northwards today, incredible really and to think very mild temps maybe even into the early teens seemed possible for this weekend just 3 days ago, so glad i didnt get sucked in by models showing very mild, wet and windy taking over

Well if GFS 00Z is correct this winter will be very notable indeed, incredible run throughout really with no end in sight even at T+384 hrs http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Cold damp and foggy, feels much colder than the actual temperature of 3C.

Yes very good charts this morning as we are now seeing some kind of agreement on the atlantic not taking over our weather like some thought might happen just a few days ago, HP to our north and east remains the controlling factor and keeping the atlantic at bay, not much we can complain about this morning to be honest. I wish people wouldnt always be disappointed if we dont see armageddon cold on every run, definate improvement this morning compared to the big uncertainty just yesterday morning.

Very wise words indeed from weatheronline, especially the paragraph i put in bold, something some model watchers should take note of.

Last time i checked he was going for a mild february and people were congratulating him over it, i guess he changed his mind then.

We've had some cracking cold spells already this winter with the news full of people getting caught out in deep snow, i don't get all this it wont come off and that GFS needs to get its credibility back it did very well in forecasting that epic first half of January and even in the last two less cold weeks places are seeing snow as in the north today. This isn't your typical post 88/89 british winter its like the 80`s ones.

Nice to see north midlanders receive some snow just cold rain here but edge hill in south warwickshire might of had some snowfall, was up there yesterday its always few C colder on my car thermometer than lower areas of the countryside. I`m going to enjoy the next few milder days before big freeze hits :lol:

OMG what a control and with good support too http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-174.png?12 More news bulletins of poor londoners digging their cars out of the snow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png - Really conor, after seeing UKMO 12Z and GFS 12Z you would have we to say we are closer to seeing a continental easterly flow at some point next week. I wish i had the crystal ball like you did in predicting tomorrow mornings 00Z runs, a very pessimistic post from yourself not that i`m surprised as its your speciality.

Looking pretty cold next week now colder the further north you are, maybe mild in the far south, FI is T+72hrs+ atm so lots of upgrades to look forward to or downgrades.

Yes so far similar to GFS 00Z

lol yep another good GFS 12Z tonight similar to 00Z i think a pretty poor UKMO 12Z but slightly better than 00Z and a slightly better ECM 12Z is my opinion tonight of course by tomorrow they`ll all be in agreement which way will it be I know where my money is Yes Altostratus you are quite correct to get the best snowfalls in the UK especially down here we need some kind at atlantic intervention thats why i was surprised at North Sea Snow Convections post from earlier as the UKMO update sounded good for this like on GEM 00Z of course i`m going for a colder drier outlook next week Im amazed you being in egypt that you're interested in our weather, can't see too many people from here being that interested in egypts weather, maybe you are from the UK originally and moved there hence the interest.

Wow very well done snowyowl, you really did go searching for as close to a chart to ECM 00Z T+96 hrs as possible and by the looks of it you really found one very similar that turned out cold :lol:

Sounds like what GEM 00Z is showing for next week heavy rain on monday turning more wintry in northern, eastern and central parts with winds from the continent getting pulled into the mix, sounds a good update to me and could easily go colder for tomorrows update. The crucial period is around T+72 hrs which can have big knock on effects down the line so next week starting sunday really is a nightmare to forecast and it will change daily.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Like lemmings falling off a cliff, i`m sure some will make a joke out of that 　

I have a feeling tonights T+72 hrs will be better than this mornings T+84 hrs fax, i`m sure the boys at the UKMO are already starting to sit up and take notice of the GFS and its ensembles, i reckon most of them favour its outcome to their own model if truth be told.