Eugene

LOL...what a cheerful pair you and ian make, GFS 06Z OP does not promise milder weather next week at all, more like another cold week, plenty of sunshine on offer this weekend so we will enjoy that while you look forward to overcast mild muck that is pushed back all the time, don't count on that breakdown just yet.

Gigantic snow flakes here :lol: Biggest i've seen in ages, not settling yet but it will later

Just a few days ago people saying its getting milder as the week progresses with 8C/9C tomorrow and that snow prospects were poor yet its snowing today in parts with lots more potential in the next week with some severe frosts likely this weekend with daytime temps really struggling :lol:

lol why are you lot panicking its supposed to start as rain/wet snow then turn to snow later, patience grasshoppers

Another GFS run with a ton of potential and any mild pushed back again compared to yesterdays runs , i sense some heavy snow for the midlands and north next week, just something about the setup for next week at the moment that supports a snowfest for some and a rainfest for the extreme southerners I wouldn't mind a day or two of proper mild weather(+10C) to be honest, it is frankly getting very weird now not experiencing any TM airmasss at all, back to cold not long afterwards once the novelty has worn off

ECM T+144 hrs is not a mild chart at all even for the south, its showing colder 850`s than right now infact and its cold/foggy out now. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-144.GIF?18-12

ECM 00Z looks very good also not much tweaking for it to be like GFS 00Z, GEM 00Z is great UKMO very good upto T+120 hrs, not total model agreement but as ever the models are struggling like they have done this winter, i'm calling for it to stay cold in the midlands north at least.

Looking at the GFS 18Z ensembles on meteociel there is an increasing amount of cold runs in FI now, HP could form to our south, northeast, northwest or north and push over or near the british isles keeping it cold

Well out to the limits of high res and its still cold. http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn18017.png Who cares if it turns mild after 25th of February anyway as by March 1st officially winter will be over and the stats will come in to show this winter as being one of if not the coldest winter in over 25 years

Extremely low confidence of an atlantic breakdown from this T+120 hrs fax thats for sure, very difficult to see any powerful atlantic LP systems on there http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

As squish says on TWO a stunning GFS 18Z run so far, people moaning about no cold on the models must need their heads read really they do. http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn10217.png

What an absolutely awesome chart to have at such a short timeframe http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png Heavy snow risk for saturday now as well :o 　 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png 　 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn664.png 　 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png - Very cold midday temps there :o

Lots of frosty starry nights likely from tonight especially this weekend into mid next week I`m surprised nobody has mentioned it when saying how poor the charts are concentrating on charts beyond a reliable timeframe 　 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1817.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4217.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.png 　 TBH who prefers mild wet and windy over that, i see no spring on FI charts just lots of rain as fronts endlessly push up from the southwest with a mud bath in the countryside and lots of cloud cover, puzzles me why some like that.

Some nice heavy hail showers the past few days giving whats looks like snow in places, it has felt lovely and crisp when walking and you can see your breath in the late afternoon, very nice spell of weather with what could be more interesting stuff tomorrow into the weekend, not a poor outlook for snow fans in the midlands and wales thats for sure

Not the first time either with many more times the models forecasting mild to take over only for cool to cold to be as stubborn as a mule and come back very quickly, i see on GFS 12Z its cold until wednesday night now it was mild earlier next week just a few days ago, lots of wintry potential upto early to mid next weke i am astounded at the confidence of mild taking over from some of the posters on here after the way things have gone this winter.

Yes yamkin, where the hell are people getting the turning milder as the week goes on from, it looks like getting colder as the week goes on with severe night frosts towards the end of the week.

Probably one of the best posts tonight with a very balanced look and view at the weather, the faxes move the front further southeast than GFS so the risk could be just southeast of the midlands we wont know until the actual day where it stalls to be honest. Yes as i said this morning too you would think after all the failed southwesterlies taking over on the charts they would be more cautious, i think some just moan for the sake of it to be honest, with the likelihood of three below average winter months this has been one of the best winters in a long time, if this winter disappoints people god help them when we get a more normal or above average winter which is as inevitable as ian brown calling another mild winter for 2010/11 ..not sure if that`ll be the one though I may be the only one here but i see a the potential for after a short atlantic incursion for pressure rising again to block the atlantic But moves the front back northwestwards later on wednesday into the midlands http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif - With it being nighttime the risk would be improved of the precipitation being snow, the air is definately cold enough

Not a poor outlook for cold fans though with some severe frosts towards the end of the week and staying cold/sunny with cold >-5C 850 hPa air covering the country, you have a very negative way at looking at things ian and its no wonder posters get agitated by you so you get no sympathy from me for the way posters treated you last night. The winter officially is coming to an end now and its been a cold one so far, i guess you`ll be posting like this in the spring too when people are looking for warmth, http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1023.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png - Very cold night thursday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10210.png - Nice crisp dewpoints with lots of sunshine http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.png - Cold day for the vast majority, no 8C or 9C for most.

Looking cold all week and potentially snowy for the midlands on wednesday with a front stalling and evaporative cooling coming into effect Looking at the ensembles it looks like we may stay stay chilly until the very near end of february, after that who cares An excellent winter this has been with another chance at a below average month, three winter below average months who would of believed it

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png Wheres spring that i've read so much about, looks chilly and unsettled to me, stretching it alot to call that spring unless you call that spring i guess, to me spring is warmth, light winds and pleasant temps into the teens with lots of sunshine i don't see anything like that.

it's cold in southern england now and somewhere in devon has been the coldest place in the UK on friday and saturday how far south do you want with a severe air frost and only just above 0C on saturday http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=02&TT=15&TIME=0430&TYP=temperatur&KEY=SOU&TIME=1266211296 All i see is another cold week ahead with many snow risks as ever the mild risk is a week away, ummmm i think i've seen that before

I am amazed at people confident of the atlantic taking with runs like this at T+144 hrs, you would of thought after countless times of atlantic being shown to take over after T+180 hrs but failing they would be more cautious in calling the atlantic but nope the same old. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

I disagree plenty of potential on the runs tonight like on UKMO, ECM and JMA, as ever any mild is after T+180 hrs, the atlantic has had big problems in taking over this winter so even if the door is left open will it actually move through it http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif - Cold air aloft.

Hasn't been too bad a cold spell here, i noticed the canal all icey when walking alongside it so it shows its been cold enough to make the canal very icey on long stretches something that isn't that common around here.

I think thats it for a wintry spell similar to early to mid January, just like in the summer you very rarely get hot spells to equal early to mid July ones after mid August, still looks rather cold though and mainly dry in the week ahead so very nice weather for getting out and about in the countryside like i have done the past few days Nice chart here with slack low pressure nights would be nice and frosty http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif