Eugene

Just like Gavin P and OP i`m going for a cool/near average autumn this year, looking at the charts cool sub 546 dam airmasses are moving southwards early September and with northerly blocking this autumn i think we`ll see cool PM/PC air dominating the UK, look out for the greens on 850 hPa charts to become extensive quite early this September out in northern europe and north atlantic, i can see some early snowfall mid to late October for the north.

Feels very warm with muggy dewpoints down in the midlands even though its only 19C with overcast conditions , looks disappointingly cloudy until friday which hopefully should be sunny with temps rising into the mid to late 20's C in the south.

Heat nor cold really bother in the midlands, it rarely reaches 30C in the west midlands and it very rarely is so cold to be uncomfortable in the winter, i very rarely have central heating on in the winter even when its cold, i prefer the feel of cold to artificial heat central heating gives out.

4th below average summer month in a row (1971/2000) :o Very unlikely we`ll see a warm August now.

Nowhere near as insane as your July forecast of 20C craig Your August forecast looks bust already

I disagree GFS temp charts have been pretty accurate lately, maxs mainly in the 26C to 28C range in the midlands today so 27C/28C which it went for is very good going, it does not account for very local spots of course or top of roofs in central london or large airports with jet engines When it predicts the temps its for the majority not very local variations.

lol you said the same about July only 4C out 20C for september craig?

lol.... of course you call Dec, Jan and Feb winter still just like you call June, July, August summer still even when it hasn't been that great of a summer, long days summer. short days winter simple really and has nothing to do with how much heat or cold/snow you get, silly thread IMO.

You still need hot airmasses to dominate July for temps to go through the roof as you say, the pattern we have had this June if it dominates July will still give us a near to below average July. Arctic sea ice levels has nothing to do with our weather in the summer. I think you will need a bigger miracle than you forecasting a near average month than for your 20C CET forecast to come off this July.

Yes i completely agree not sure what craig is on but the nights have felt decidedly cool this June even the milder nights due to strong winds giving a wind chill haven't felt that warm something the BBC fail to mention when going on and on about mild nights, felt cold in the mid weeks strong winds at night, atlantic airmasses esp from a cyclonic pattern aren't what i classify warm in summer you need Tropical continental air and calm winds for truly warm summer nights.

Yes i would concur with snowmaiden, it looks like a pretty steep drop to me especially if skies are clear end of the week into the weekend at night with some notably low mins for the time of year possible almost anywhere. The only way is down from now on not up as yazz once sang.

Looking at the ensembles i wonder if the curse on summer of the year ending with 8 is about to come to fruition again, there are some things in life you can't explain and the year ending with 8 curse on summer is one of them.

Unbelievable but a pretty widespread inland ground frost is possible later this week :o Even down in the midlands, the airmass is definately cold enough, it all depends if it remains cloudy or not at night even if it does remain cloudy cool dewpoints will make it feel cool.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/rep...;MENU=WeekAhead The dangers of basing your forecast on GFS runs, big change since that forecast was written.

Not sure i agree with that June 2003 was exceptionally warm, June 2000 was warm... June 2005/2006 were very warm, we are infact overdue a cool June, haven't had one in a long time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgi...TIME=1209037270 Today doesn't look that warm to me temps around average, tonight with pretty cool air and pressure rising temps could get down to 4C inland, the only really warm day looks saturday to me. Monday morning looks like it could be pretty cold also with PM air and light winds.

Yes La Bise it wasn't too bad at all really with some nice cold settled spells with cold nights, even mild winters can feel cold just like a cool summer can feel warm, just the lack of snow was disappointing though early spring kind of made up for it. Looking forward to next winter already, mild doesn't bother me as even mild winters can have some cold spells. Yes January was awful i would agree, Jan i feel is now the most disappointing winter month, the atlantic is just too active and i can't see it changing anytime soon. I feel early spring is now much better for wintry weather than January.

Very interesting stats, thanks Mr Data. Yes it's mostly mins keeping the CET down and the week ahead looks to continue this trend with some air frosts likely early to mid week could be quite harsh in places thats if the cloud clears, some troughs are forecasted to run down in a cold northerly flow monday and tuesday could be wintry on high ground and on lower ground in scotland.

Guess what another northerly late sunday into monday, yes only late sunday and only affecting the north of scotland but still a northerly and still affecting somewhere in the UK, pretty amazing really late sunday/mondays northerly came out of nowhere on the charts, doesn't look good currently on the charts for one april 19th/20th but if the scandy high can retrogress enough northwestwards and the low pushes east then another northerly could appear just late on sunday April 20th again just like sundays one http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png

Completely agree stu, we shouldnt forget the runs were showing it turning milder with a southerly flow earlier this week for early next week but now it's a cold northerly flow initially with a cold high moving across us then moving east/northeastwards as shown on the ensembles, later next week needs to be sorted out first before the week after, a blocking high to our NE will confuse the models greatly as we all know.

What a fascinating thread this is, i've just found this forum. Late snowfalls fascinate me, just something more special than in the wintertime when you expect it. It's an amazing thing to see snow in April and May, the sun even now is as strong as early September so to get snowfall that even settles in late April to late May is just frankly amazing with the power of the sun. Of course there is still alot of cold pooling around to our north much more so than in July/August, i wonder if there was a deep cold pool still to our north in July/August like there is in April/May would it be able to snow in the UK down to lower levels, the suns strength obviously doesn't prevent snowfall even to lower levels(scottish mountains can receive snowfall any month of the year). Of course there was June 2nd 1975 when it snowed and disrupted that cricket match in derbyshire, i think the hills in the west/south midlands got some snowfall from that, June has seen wintry showers in the past few hundred years on many occasions. Hail settling has been mistaken as snow in the summer. Early snowfalls fascinate me too but they are rarer in September/October than they are in April/May due to much less cold pooling. I would love to see a late April/May snow event in future years to add to this forum With the amount of northerly blocking around i`ll be keeping a close eye on developments

Yes i'm sure it has it's good points living there but surely wouldn't most people tire of the 12C days that the shetland islands seems to record often in the summer, i notice lerwick was the coldest place yesterday in the UK at 7.3C.

A decent amount of northerly runs and northeasterly runs showing up on the 06Z ensembles for April 19th/20th

That's the weather for ya full of surprises Not sure why you are surprised being in yorkshire, always a chance of snow from cold northerlies up there.

Yes i've noticed that too, northerlies over easter weekend, last weekend was windy and unsettled just like next weekend looks like being, i wonder if another northerly will show up on the models soon for weekend April 19th/20th, not sure when this weekends northerly was first picked up, not two weekends ago i dont think so another northerly in two weeks is possible though i would favour an easterly or LP over or near us.