gottolovethisweather

Mixture of wet sleety snowflakes and rainy bits, just like most other places to be fair. Come on you uppers. From roughly 7pm to 8pm onwards, it should be proper SNOW for most, acocrding to the NAE and NMM output.

AT 0.9c, DP 0.3C, wet sleety snowflakes falling but this is just the beginnings. Take care folks when travelling later, as the Temperature will continue to drop during the heavier bits.

Sleety snow grains falling in Newbury, Berkshire. This potentially has the makings of a rather snowy event as suggested by some of the wiser heads in here. Temperature finally on the way down and if we can keep winds from the East, things will be looking interesting for a lot of us inland, as time progresses. EDIT: 1.0c, was 1.1c as a maximum, DP now 0.4c and falling.

Radar readily showing the rain turning to sleet/wet snow all the more so.

0.2mm in my rain gauge, the thaw has started.

Have attempted to post on a couple of occasions and failed. But I'd like to thank you folks for delaying the progression of this front, I really thought it would arrive far earlier than the current radar suggests. What I feel this should do is aid the chances of more widespread snowfall from the rush-hour onwards. Currently 1.1c AT, -0.5c DP, steady barometer at 999.9mb in Newbury, Berkshire, so very marginal as things stand. The leading edge of the precipitation is roughly 10-15 miles due South of my location. *Please keep your reports coming as these will be most welcomed by MetO affiliated people and the like and should help clarify the situation down on the ground. There will be difficult travelling conditions ahead for many folk as darkness falls

No such luck here.

Just reposting AWDs post from earlier, should you guys n gals not have seen it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Your right to a degree GTLTW, but remember that from now on, as the system rotates slowly WNW along an occlusion travelling east, colder air from the ENE will slowly undercut it. This is the radar as of 12:20; And this is the latest NAE forecast for midday (the 20mins differential shouldn't make too much difference); All in all, so far not to disimiliar. Now the current 850hpa and Dewpoints for midday; You can see that southernmost counties have slightly less cold air over them, with a weak feed of S/SW air causing th Dewpoints to rise slightly; Therefore no surprise to hear of reports of rain in Devon, Dorset and Hampshire currently. However, fast forward 6 hours and the flow turns increasingly E/SE. As the low pressure in the channel starts drawing in a continental feed, reducing Dewpoints and 850hpa temps; The low pressure in the channel not really moving anywhere, and the PPN around it is simply just pivoting west in an increasingly E/SE feed. At 18:00 the PPN is here; Due to all the pivoting and rotating around the centre of the LP in the channel, its not really moved any great distance, just about reaching the M4/Bristol area by 18:00. It does however develop further due to the increasingly cold airmass mixing in with it. No surprise to see it turning to snow by this time then; So the chance are, for Newbury, the main bulk of PPN would arrive after the cold air has dug down, therefore limiting any rainfall to drizzle beforehand. This would apply to most northern counties of our region. Attached Thumbnails

PB, I would leave early if at all possible.

I haven't claimed a yes or no yet Sungirl but please do watch the radars, and follow the percipitation type posts where at all possible. This event could lead to a very difficult rush-hour later on.

I'm touching a very large piece of wood at the moment.

Thanks AWD as ever, for a wonderful detailed summary. Tell the undercut to get a move on, if you will. This will be KNIFE-EDGE stuff I guess.

Yuk, far too borderline for my liking. I feel a lot of us are going to have our SNOW washed away I'm afraid. Unless something colder goes along in the form of uppers, wbfl etc. Now zoomed up to 0.8c AT, 0.2c DP, 999.6mb steady barometer.

More than likely I guess. Wasn't on here much of yesterday so I may have missed that. All being well things will become more favourable as the day progresses but I don't think that will be until at least the rush-hour onwards.

Not looking good here currently even this far North. Currently AT 0.3c, DP -0.1c soon to go above freezing and everything will melt. There is clearly going to be a lot of rain out of this, at least at first, sorry folks. All IMHO but this band of precipitation is simply arriving at the wrong time and we need something to change in the uppers, wbfl etc. before I will start feeling positive about things again.

Tell that precipitation to slow down with its movement Northwards, otherwise I think there is more chance of most of us getting a wintry mix rather than plain old snow, at least at first. Currently, a level snow cover of 90mm still exists at Newbury with the current AT at -0.3c, DP -0.7c, steady Barometer reading of 999.8mb and 1mph Easterly.

I did a brief summary earlier re: my thoughts but this is a radar watch I would say. http://forum.netweat...00#entry2558051 Also, check out the posts prior to mine showing NAE and NMM output. Don't worry I'm far from convinced what I'll get or even what you'll get at this stage.

Blimey Coast, you shouldn't have done that to me. Snow risk all the way.

Your eyes can't be deceiving you if you can see snowflakes and you are closer to the Northwestern edge of the system we talk about. I'm just concerned that you may have mixed your Temperatures and Dew points up, as you can't have a Dew point higher than your actual Temperature.

Intriguing viewing today, whilst its not everything the most suitable Dew points, i.e. of snow producing type, invade most parts of the effected area from 7pm onwards. So, my take on things is that we need to be looking at delaying the band of precipitation until such a timeframe. If it comes in prior to the predicted timeslot, it will most definitely start as rain, then hopefully progressively turn to snow thereafter. This way though, it is a riskier route to the white stuff. I feel this has the makings of an M4 boundary event with places South of this line largely seeing rain, as things stand.

Thank you MK, me old cupcake.

Absolutely. Most definitely. Not sure. Seriously though, keep tuned to that thread and I'm sure AWD will be keeping us informed on precedings as well.

Theres NEIGH chance of getting back on topic at this rate. Look! What's that. Snowfall against my windows.

And back on topic from my earlier diversion.

Coast, if you are/were at home, I think it would be all eyes to your South right now, at least according to the radar it is.